爱尔兰牛群和獾中牛结核病的流行模型
Epidemic modelling of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds and badgers in Ireland
摘要：
牛结核病是一种影响爱尔兰牛和獾的疾病，通过随机流行病建模使用来自四区项目的发病率数据进行研究（Griffin等人，2005年）。四区项目是一个大规模的现场试验，在爱尔兰的四个不同的农业地区进行了五年的时间（1997-2002年），以评估獾扑杀牛结核病发病率在牛群的影响。基于几个模型的比较，没有畜群间传播和獾到畜群的传播与被扑杀的感染獾总数成比例的模型得到了数据的最佳支持。通过模型预测、可识别性检查和敏感性分析进行详细的模型验证。结果表明，獾到牛的传播比牛群之间的传播更重要，如果没有獾到牛群的传播，爱尔兰牛群中的牛结核病水平可能会大大降低。
英文摘要：
Bovine tuberculosis, a disease that affects cattle and badgers in Ireland, was studied via stochastic epidemic modeling using incidence data from the Four Area Project (Griffin et al., 2005). The Four Area Project was a large scale field trial conducted in four diverse farming regions of Ireland over a five-year period (1997-2002) to evaluate the impact of badger culling on bovine tuberculosis incidence in cattle herds. Based on the comparison of several models, the model with no between-herd transmission and badger-to-herd transmission proportional to the total number of infected badgers culled was best supported by the data. Detailed model validation was conducted via model prediction, identifiability checks and sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that badger-to-cattle transmission is of more importance than between-herd transmission and that if there was no badger-to-herd transmission, levels of bovine tuberculosis in cattle herds in Ireland could decrease considerably.
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