野生动物（獾）与牛之间牛结核病的大数据时空网络分析
A big-data spatial, temporal and network analysis of bovine tuberculosis between wildlife (badgers) and cattle
摘要：
牛结核病（TB）对一些国家的农业构成严重威胁，它涉及野生动物和牛之间的潜在相互作用，并在人与野生动物冲突方面造成社会问题。本研究解决了连接网络分析，空间和时间动态之间的TB牛在农场和欧洲獾（Meles meles）使用一个大的数据集产生的校准代理模型。结果表明，獾的感染网络连通性低于牛。受感染的个人的贡献，随着时间的推移，疾病传播的平均距离是相当低的獾比牛;獾主要传播疾病的地方，而牛感染的地方和较长的距离。大部分獾引起的感染发生时，个别獾离开自己的家sett，这是正相关的獾人口增长率。点模式分析表明聚集在獾集在所有规模的结核病患病率的空间格局。农场的空间分布，而不是无结核病聚集在不同的尺度比感染獾的空间分布，并成为随机在更大的尺度。感染獾setts和感染农场之间的空间交叉相关性表明，一般感染setts和农场不共存，除了在少数尺度。时间自相关检测到獾两年的感染周期，而感染牛既有一年内的周期，也有更长的周期。时间交叉相关表明獾和牛的感染周期呈负相关。这些结果的影响，了解疾病的动态进行了讨论。
英文摘要：
Bovine tuberculosis (TB) poses a serious threat for agricultural industry in several countries, it involves potential interactions between wildlife and cattle and creates societal problems in terms of human-wildlife conflict. This study addresses connectedness network analysis, the spatial, and temporal dynamics of TB between cattle in farms and the European badger (Meles meles) using a large dataset generated by a calibrated agent based model. Results showed that infected network connectedness was lower in badgers than in cattle. The contribution of an infected individual to the mean distance of disease spread over time was considerably lower for badger than cattle; badgers mainly spread the disease locally while cattle infected both locally and across longer distances. The majority of badger-induced infections occurred when individual badgers leave their home sett, and this was positively correlated with badger population growth rates. Point pattern analysis indicated aggregation in the spatial pattern of TB prevalence in badger setts across all scales. The spatial distribution of farms that were not TB free was aggregated at different scales than the spatial distribution of infected badgers and became random at larger scales. The spatial cross correlation between infected badger setts and infected farms revealed that generally infected setts and farms do not coexist except at few scales. Temporal autocorrelation detected a two year infection cycle for badgers, while there was both within the year and longer cycles for infected cattle. Temporal cross correlation indicated that infection cycles in badgers and cattle are negatively correlated. The implications of these results for understanding the dynamics of the disease are discussed.
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