出生性别比上升导致人口老龄化
Population aging caused by rise in sex ratio at birth
摘要：
尽管出生性别比在历史和生物学上是稳定的，但在过去几十年中，世界部分地区的出生性别比（SRB）有所上升。由此产生的人口后果，主要是性别失衡，有充分的记录，通常包括“失踪的女孩/妇女”和“婚姻挤压”。“然而，SRB对人口动态的影响，特别是其潜在机制，尚未得到深入探讨。我们的目的是调查SRB上升对人口的规模，结构和增长的影响，特别是强调人口老龄化。我们提供了一个简单的框架，来自经典的稳定人口模型，分析SRB的上升如何减少人口规模，使人口老龄化。我们证明了出生时具有较高SRB的队列比具有较低SRB的队列在尺寸上更小。由于受影响的队列出生在人口中，其较小的规模将减少总人口规模，从而提高了出生时具有原始SRB并具有与以前相同规模的老年人的比例。由此产生的人口老龄化的速度增加的队列与新的SRB采取人口的份额越来越大。这项研究补充说，除了生育率和死亡率，SRB可以是种群动力学的驱动因素，特别是当它远远高于正常的生物水平。
英文摘要：
Despite its historical and biological stability, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) has risen in parts of the world in the last several decades. The resultant demographic consequences, mostly on sex imbalance, are well documented, typically including "missing girls/women" and "marriage squeeze." However, the SRB-induced impact on demographic dynamics, particularly its underlying mechanism, has not been explored in depth. We aim to investigate the impact of the SRB rise on the size, structure, and growth of a population, particularly emphasizing on population aging. We provide a simple framework, derived from classical stable population models, to analyze how the SRB rise can reduce the population size and make the population old. We demonstrate that the cohorts born with a higher SRB are smaller in size than those with a lower SRB. As the affected cohorts are born into the population, their smaller size will reduce the total population size, thereby lifting the fraction of old people that were born with the original SRB and have the same size as before. The resultant population aging speed increases as the cohorts with the new SRB take an increasing share of the population. This study adds that, in addition to fertility and mortality, the SRB can be a driving factor of population dynamics, especially when it moves far above normal biological levels.
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