Scaling methods have long been utilized to simplify and cluster high-dimensional data. However, the general latent spaces across all predefined groups derived from these methods sometimes do not fall into researchers' interest regarding specific patterns within groups. To tackle this issue, we adopt an emerging analysis approach called contrastive learning. We contribute to this growing field by extending its ideas to multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) in order to enable an analysis of data often encountered by social scientists -- containing binary, ordinal, and nominal variables. We demonstrate the utility of contrastive MCA (cMCA) by analyzing two different surveys of voters in the U.S. and U.K. Our results suggest that, first, cMCA can identify substantively important dimensions and divisions among subgroups that are overlooked by traditional methods; second, for other cases, cMCA can derive latent traits that emphasize subgroups seen moderately in those derived by traditional methods.
In the election, political parties communicate political information to people through social media. The followers receive the information, but can users who are not followers, political detachment users, receive the information? We focus on political detachment users who do not follow any political parties, and tackle the following research question: do political detachment users receive various political information during the election period? The results indicate that the answer is No. We determined that the political detachment users only receive the information of a few political parties.
In June 2013, Brazil faced the largest and most significant mass protests in a generation. These were exacerbated by the population's disenchantment towards its highly fragmented party system, which is composed by a very large number of political parties. Under these circumstances, presidents are constrained by informal coalition governments, bringing very harmful consequences to the country. In this work I propose ARRANGE, a dAta dRiven method foR Assessing and reduciNG party fragmEntation in a country. ARRANGE uses as input the roll call data for congress votes on bills and amendments as a p…
Assessing political conversations in social media requires a deeper understanding of the underlying practices and styles that drive these conversations. In this paper, we present a computational approach for assessing online conversational practices of political parties. Following a deductive approach, we devise a number of quantitative measures from a discussion of theoretical constructs in sociological theory. The resulting measures make different - mostly qualitative - aspects of online conversational practices amenable to computation. We evaluate our computational approach by applying it i…
In modern election campaigns, political parties utilize social media to advertise their policies and candidates and to communicate to the electorate. In Japan's latest general election in 2017, the 48th general election for the Lower House, social media, especially Twitter, was actively used. In this paper, we analyze the users who retweeted tweets of political parties on Twitter during the election. Our aim is to clarify what kinds of users are diffusing (retweeting) tweets of political parties. The results indicate that the characteristics of retweeters of the largest ruling party (Liberal D…
In modern election campaigns, political parties utilize social media to advertise their policies and candidates and to communicate to electorates. In Japan's latest general election in 2017, the 48th general election for the Lower House, social media, especially Twitter, was actively used. In this paper, we perform a detailed analysis of social graphs and users who retweeted tweets of political parties during the election. Our aim is to obtain accurate information regarding the diffusion power for each party rather than just the number of followers. The results indicate that a user following a…
Artificial Intelligence for the Internal Democracy of Political Parties
University of Bologna（博洛尼亚大学）；Yale University（耶鲁大学）；University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Nuffield College, University of Oxford（牛津大学纳菲尔德学院）；Université Libre de Bruxelles（布鲁塞尔自由大学）
Social media has become an indispensable channel for political communication. However, the political discourse is increasingly characterized by hate speech, which affects not only the reputation of individual politicians but also the functioning of society at large. In this work, we empirically analyze how the amount of hate speech in replies to posts from politicians on Twitter depends on personal characteristics, such as their party affiliation, gender, and ethnicity. For this purpose, we employ Twitter's Historical API to collect every tweet posted by members of the 117th U.S. Congress for …
We present the result of a dual modeling of opinion network. The model complements the agent-based opinion models by attaching to the social agent (voters) network a political opinion (party) network having its own intrinsic mechanisms of evolution. These two sub-networks form a global network which can be either isolated from or dependent on the external influence. Basically, the evolution of the agent network includes link adding and deleting, the opinion changes influenced by social validation, the political climate, the attractivity of the parties and the interaction between them. The opin…
Large-scale data from social media have a significant potential to describe complex phenomena in real world and to anticipate collective behaviors such as information spreading and social trends. One specific case of study is represented by the collective attention to the action of political parties. Not surprisingly, researchers and stakeholders tried to correlate parties' presence on social media with their performances in elections. Despite the many efforts, results are still inconclusive since this kind of data is often very noisy and significant signals could be covered by (largely unknow…
While social media has been proved as an exceptionally useful tool to interact with other people and massively and quickly spread helpful information, its great potential has been ill-intentionally leveraged as well to distort political elections and manipulate constituents. In the paper at hand, we analyzed the presence and behavior of social bots on Twitter in the context of the November 2019 Spanish general election. Throughout our study, we classified involved users as social bots or humans, and examined their interactions from a quantitative (i.e., amount of traffic generated and existing…
The emergence of politically driven divisions in online discussion networks has attracted a wealth of literature, but also one which has thus far been largely limited to single country studies. Hence whilst there is good evidence that these networks do divide and fragment into what are often described as "echo chambers", we know little about the factors which might explain this division or make networks more or less fragmented, as studies have been limited to a small number of political groupings with limited possibilities for systematic comparison. This paper seeks to remedy this deficit, by …
Monitoring advertising around controversial issues is an important step in ensuring accountability and transparency of political processes. To that end, we use the Facebook Ads Library to collect 2312 migration-related advertising campaigns in Italy over one year. Our pro- and anti-immigration classifier (F1=0.85) reveals a partisan divide among the major Italian political parties, with anti-immigration ads accounting for nearly 15M impressions. Although composing 47.6% of all migration-related ads, anti-immigration ones receive 65.2% of impressions. We estimate that about two thirds of all ca…
The 2004 US Presidential Election cycle marked the debut of Internet-based media such as blogs and social networking websites as institutionally recognized features of the American political landscape. Using a longitudinal sample of all DNC/RNC-designated blog-citation networks we are able to test the influence of various strategic, institutional, and balance-theoretic mechanisms and exogenous factors such as seasonality and political events on the propensity of blogs to cite one another over time. Capitalizing on the temporal resolution of our data, we utilize an autoregressive network regres…
In this paper we illustrate the use of Data Science techniques to analyse complex human communication. In particular, we consider tweets from leaders of political parties as a dynamical proxy to political programmes and ideas. We also study the temporal evolution of their contents as a reaction to specific events. We analyse levels of positive and negative sentiment in the tweets using new tools adapted to social media. We also train an Artificial Intelligence to recognise the political affiliation of a tweet. The AI is able to predict the origin of the tweet with a precision in the range of 7…
Sentiment analysis is the task of automatic analysis of opinions and emotions of users towards an entity or some aspect of that entity. Political Sentiment Analysis of social media helps the political strategists to scrutinize the performance of a party or candidate and improvise their weaknesses far before the actual elections. During the time of elections, the social networks get flooded with blogs, chats, debates and discussions about the prospects of political parties and politicians. The amount of data generated is much large to study, analyze and draw inferences using the latest techniqu…
We analyse bill cosponsorship networks in the Italian Chamber of Deputies. In comparison with other parliaments, a distinguishing feature of the Chamber is the large number of political groups. Our analysis aims to infer the pattern of collaborations between these groups from data on bill cosponsorships. We propose an extension of stochastic block models for edge-valued graphs and derive measures of group productivity and of collaboration between political parties. As the model proposed encloses a large number of parameters, we pursue a penalized likelihood approach that enables us to infer a …
The roll calls of the Italian Parliament in the XVI legislature are studied by employing multidimensional scaling, hierarchical clustering, and network analysis. In order to detect changes in voting behavior, the roll calls have been divided in seven periods of six months each. All the methods employed pointed out an increasing fragmentation of the political parties endorsing the previous government that culminated in its downfall. By using the concept of modularity at different resolution levels, we identify the community structure of Parliament and its evolution in each of the considered tim…
Social media has been an important tool in the expansion of the populist message, and it is thought to have contributed to the electoral success of populist parties in the past decade. This study compares how populist parties advertised on Facebook during the 2019 European Parliamentary election. In particular, we examine commonalities and differences in which audiences they reach and on which issues they focus. By using data from Meta (previously Facebook) Ad Library, we analyze 45k ad campaigns by 39 parties, both populist and mainstream, in Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, Spain, and Poland.…
Barcelona en Comú, an emerging grassroots movement-party, won the 2015 Barcelona City Council election. This candidacy was devised by activists involved in the 15M movement in order to turn citizen outrage into political change. On the one hand, the 15M movement is based on a decentralized structure. On the other hand, political science literature postulates that parties historically develop oligarchical leadership structures. This tension motivates us to examine whether Barcelona en Comú preserved a decentralizated structure or adopted a conventional centralized organization. In this article …
Elections are the backbone of any democratic country, where voters elect the candidates as their representatives. The emergence of social networking sites has provided a platform for political parties and their candidates to connect with voters in order to spread their political ideas. Our study aims to use Twitter in assessing the outcome of Delhi Assembly elections held in 2020, using a bi-level approach, i.e., concerning political parties and their candidates. We analyze the correlation of election results with the activities of different candidates and parties on Twitter, and the response …
Many democratic societies use district-based elections, where the region under consideration is geographically divided into districts and a representative is chosen for each district based on the preferences of the electors who reside there. These representatives belong to political parties, and the executive powers are acquired by that party which has a majority of the elected district representatives. In most systems, each elector can express preference for one candidate, though they may have a complete or partial ranking of the candidates/parties. We show that this can lead to situations wh…
Content on Twitter's home timeline is selected and ordered by personalization algorithms. By consistently ranking certain content higher, these algorithms may amplify some messages while reducing the visibility of others. There's been intense public and scholarly debate about the possibility that some political groups benefit more from algorithmic amplification than others. We provide quantitative evidence from a long-running, massive-scale randomized experiment on the Twitter platform that committed a randomized control group including nearly 2M daily active accounts to a reverse-chronologica…
University College London（伦敦大学学院）；University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）；University of Burgos（布尔戈斯大学）；Queen Mary, University of London（伦敦玛丽女王大学）；Politecnico di Torino（都灵理工大学）
This study is a first, exploratory attempt to use quantitative semantics techniques and topological analysis to analyze systemic patterns arising in a complex political system. In particular, we use a rich data set covering all speeches and debates in the UK House of Commons between 1975 and 2014. By the use of dynamic topic modeling (DTM) and topological data analysis (TDA) we show that both members and parties feature specific roles within the system, consistent over time, and extract global patterns indicating levels of political cohesion. Our results provide a wide array of novel hypothese…
