极端荒地火灾事件的计算模拟：应用于预测、土地管理和消防员安全的科学认识的综合
Computational modeling of extreme wildland fire events: a synthesis of scientific understanding with applications to forecasting, land management, and firefighter safety
摘要：
世界各地的大型荒地火灾事件的理解和预测是一个不断发展的跨学科研究领域，通过开发和使用计算模型迅速推进。最近的模型双向耦合计算流体动力学模型，包括天气预测模型与模块包含算法表示火灾蔓延和热释放，模拟跨越三个数量级的尺度火-大气相互作用。结合气象数据和关于荒地燃料和主动火灾探测的机载和卫星遥感数据，现代天气-火灾耦合模拟系统正被用来解决当前的科学问题。与传统工具相比，这些动态计算建模系统增加了成本和复杂性，但已经产生了突破性的见解，特别是对极端野火事件的机制，例如与电网中断相关的细尺度极端风，并已被配置为预测火灾的增长，扩大了我们预测它们将如何展开的能力。我们综合了最近极端事件的案例研究，扩大应用，以及我们的遥感系统，火灾预测工具和气象模型中的挑战和限制，这些都增加了野火的神秘性和明显的不可预测性。
英文摘要：
The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational fluid dynamics models including weather prediction models with modules containing algorithms representing fire spread and heat release, simulating fire-atmosphere interactions across scales spanning three orders of magnitude. Integrated with weather data and airborne and satellite remote sensing data on wildland fuels and active fire detection, modern coupled weather-fire modeling systems are being used to solve current science problems. Compared to legacy tools, these dynamic computational modeling systems increase cost and complexity but have produced breakthrough insights notably into the mechanisms underlying extreme wildfire events such as fine-scale extreme winds associated with interruptions of the electricity grid and have been configured to forecast a fire's growth, expanding our ability to anticipate how they will unfold. We synthesize case studies of recent extreme events, expanding applications, and the challenges and limitations in our remote sensing systems, fire prediction tools, and meteorological models that add to wildfires' mystery and apparent unpredictability.
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