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arXiv 2007.00774stat.ME
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空间极值统计建模研究进展

Advances in Statistical Modeling of Spatial Extremes

Raphaël Huser, Jennifer L. Wadsworth

摘要:

空间极值的经典建模依赖于渐近模型(即,最大稳定过程或$r$ -Pareto过程)分别用于块最大值或高阈值上的峰值。然而,在有限的水平,经验证据往往表明,这种渐近模型过于严格的约束,他们没有充分捕捉频繁的情况下,更严重的事件往往是空间上更本地化。换句话说,这些渐近模型具有很强的尾部依赖性,这种依赖性在越来越高的水平上持续存在,而数据通常表明它应该减弱。经典空间极值模型的另一个众所周知的局限性是,它们要么在计算上难以拟合高维,要么需要使用效率较低的技术来拟合。在这篇综述论文中,我们描述了最近在空间极值建模和推理方面的进展,重点是新模型,这些模型具有更灵活的尾部结构,可以桥接渐近依赖类,并且更容易适用于大型数据集的基于似然性的推理。特别是,我们讨论了各种类型的随机尺度的建设,以及条件空间极值模型,最近得到越来越多的关注,在极端社区的统计。我们说明了这些新的空间模型在两个不同的环境应用。

英文摘要:

The classical modeling of spatial extremes relies on asymptotic models (i.e., max-stable processes or $r$-Pareto processes) for block maxima or peaks over high thresholds, respectively. However, at finite levels, empirical evidence often suggests that such asymptotic models are too rigidly constrained, and that they do not adequately capture the frequent situation where more severe events tend to be spatially more localized. In other words, these asymptotic models have a strong tail dependence that persists at increasingly high levels, while data usually suggest that it should weaken instead. Another well-known limitation of classical spatial extremes models is that they are either computationally prohibitive to fit in high dimensions, or they need to be fitted using less efficient techniques. In this review paper, we describe recent progress in the modeling and inference for spatial extremes, focusing on new models that have more flexible tail structures that can bridge asymptotic dependence classes, and that are more easily amenable to likelihood-based inference for large datasets. In particular, we discuss various types of random scale constructions, as well as the conditional spatial extremes model, which have recently been getting increasing attention within the statistics of extremes community. We illustrate some of these new spatial models on two different environmental applications.

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