南亚耦合模式相互比较项目6（CMIP6）偏差校正的气候预测
Bias-corrected climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project-6 (CMIP6) for South Asia
摘要：
气候变化可能对南亚的农业、水资源、基础设施和数百万人的生计构成巨大挑战。在这里，我们开发了南亚（印度，巴基斯坦，孟加拉国，尼泊尔，不丹和斯里兰卡）和位于印度次大陆的18个河流流域的降水，最高和最低温度在0.25°空间分辨率的每日偏差校正数据。偏差校正的数据集是使用经验分位数映射（EQM）开发的历史（1951-2014年）和预测（2015-2100年）气候的四种情景（SSP 126，SSP 245，SSP 370，SSP 585）使用13个CMIP 6-GCM的输出。根据降水量、最高温度和最低温度的平均值和极端值的观测结果，对偏差校正数据集进行了评价。根据13个CMIP 6-GCM的偏差校正预测，21世纪南亚的气候将变暖（3-5°C）和湿润（13-30%）。CMIP 6-GCMs的偏差校正预测可用于南亚地区的气候变化影响评估和次大陆河流流域的水文影响评估。
英文摘要：
Climate change is likely to pose enormous challenges for agriculture, water resources, infrastructure, and livelihood of millions of people living in South Asia. Here, we develop daily bias-corrected data of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures at 0.25° spatial resolution for South Asia (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka) and 18 river basins located in the Indian sub-continent. The bias-corrected dataset is developed using Empirical Quantile Mapping (EQM) for the historic (1951-2014) and projected (2015-2100) climate for the four scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) using output from 13 CMIP6-GCMs. The bias-corrected dataset was evaluated against the observations for both mean and extremes of precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures. Bias corrected projections from 13 CMIP6-GCMs project a warmer (3-5°C) and wetter (13-30%) climate in South Asia in the 21st century. The bias-corrected projections from CMIP6-GCMs can be used for climate change impact assessment in South Asia and hydrologic impact assessment in the sub-continental river basins.
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