We study the problem of modeling purchase of multiple products and utilizing it to display optimized recommendations for online retailers and e-commerce platforms.
We present a parsimonious multi-purchase family of choice models called the Bundle-MVL-K family, and develop a binary search based iterative strategy that efficiently computes optimized recommendations for this model. We establish the hardness of computing optimal recommendation sets, and derive several structural properties of the optimal solution that aid in speeding up computation. This is one of the first attempts at operationalizing multi-purchase class of choice models. We show one of the first quantitative links between modeling multiple purchase behavior and revenue gains. The efficacy of our modeling and optimization techniques compared to competing solutions is shown using several real world datasets on multiple metrics such as model fitness, expected revenue gains and run-time reductions. For example, the expected revenue benefit of taking multiple purchases into account is observed to be $\sim5\%$ in relative terms for the Ta Feng and UCI shopping datasets, when compared to the MNL model for instances with $\sim 1500$ products. Additionally, across $6$ real world datasets, the test log-likelihood fits of our models are on average $17\%$ better in relative terms. Our work contributes to the study multi-purchase decisions, analyzing consumer demand and the retailers optimization problem. The simplicity of our models and the iterative nature of our optimization technique allows practitioners meet stringent computational constraints while increasing their revenues in practical recommendation applications at scale, especially in e-commerce platforms and other marketplaces.
Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）；The University of Sydney（悉尼大学）
Recommender system, as an essential part of modern e-commerce, consists of two fundamental modules, namely Click-Through Rate (CTR) and Conversion Rate (CVR) prediction. While CVR has a direct impact on the purchasing volume, its prediction is well-known challenging due to the Sample Selection Bias (SSB) and Data Sparsity (DS) issues. Although existing methods, typically built on the user sequential behavior path ``impression$\to$click$\to$purchase'', is effective for dealing with SSB issue, they still struggle to address the DS issue due to rare purchase training samples. Observing that users…
Promotions and discounts are essential components of modern e-commerce platforms, where they are often used to incentivize customers towards purchase completion. Promotions also affect revenue and may incur a monetary loss that is often limited by a dedicated promotional budget. We study the Online Constrained Multiple-Choice Promotions Personalization Problem, where the optimization goal is to select for each customer which promotion to present in order to maximize purchase completions, while also complying with global budget limitations. Our work formalizes the problem as an Online Multiple …
In web search, mutual influences between documents have been studied from the perspective of search result diversification. But the methods in web search is not directly applicable to e-commerce search because of their differences. And little research has been done on the mutual influences between items in e-commerce search. We propose a global optimization framework for mutual influence aware ranking in e-commerce search. Our framework directly optimizes the Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) for ranking, and decomposes ranking into two tasks. The first task is mutual influence aware purchase pro…
To improve user experience and profits of corporations, modern industrial recommender systems usually aim to select the items that are most likely to be interacted with (e.g., clicks and purchases). However, they overlook the fact that users may purchase the items even without recommendations. To select these effective items, it is essential to estimate the causal effect of recommendations. The real effective items are the ones which can contribute to purchase probability uplift. Nevertheless, it is difficult to obtain the real causal effect since we can only recommend or not recommend an item…
ESMC: Entire Space Multi-Task Model for Post-Click Conversion Rate via Parameter Constraint
The Chinese University of Hongkong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））；Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）；Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data（深圳大数据研究院）；Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学）
Recommendation systems have become ubiquitous in today's online world and are an integral part of practically every e-commerce platform. While traditional recommender systems use customer history, this approach is not feasible in 'cold start' scenarios. Such scenarios include the need to produce recommendations for new or unregistered users and the introduction of new items. In this study, we present the Purchase Intent Session-bAsed (PISA) algorithm, a content-based algorithm for predicting the purchase intent for cold start session-based scenarios. Our approach employs deep learning techniqu…
Dalian University of Technology（大连理工大学）；Wuhan University（武汉大学）；Pennsylvania State University（宾夕法尼亚州立大学）
Session-based recommendation aims to predict items that an anonymous user would like to purchase based on her short behavior sequence. The current approaches towards session-based recommendation only focus on modeling users' interest preferences, while they all ignore a key attribute of an item, i.e., the price. Many marketing studies have shown that the price factor significantly influences users' behaviors and the purchase decisions of users are determined by both price and interest preferences simultaneously. However, it is nontrivial to incorporate price preferences for session-based recom…
Renmin University of China（中国人民大学）；University of Montreal（蒙特利尔大学）
Recommending the right products is the central problem in recommender systems, but the right products should also be recommended at the right time to meet the demands of users, so as to maximize their values. Users' demands, implying strong purchase intents, can be the most useful way to promote products sales if well utilized. Previous recommendation models mainly focused on user's general interests to find the right products. However, the aspect of meeting users' demands at the right time has been much less explored. To address this problem, we propose a novel Long-Short Demands-aware Model …
The rapid growth of e-commerce has made people accustomed to shopping online. Before making purchases on e-commerce websites, most consumers tend to rely on rating scores and review information to make purchase decisions. With this information, they can infer the quality of products to reduce the risk of purchase. Specifically, items with high rating scores and good reviews tend to be less risky, while items with low rating scores and bad reviews might be risky to purchase. On the other hand, the purchase behaviors will also be influenced by consumers' tolerance of risks, known as the risk att…
Different from shopping at retail stores, consumers on e-commerce platforms usually cannot touch or try products before purchasing, which means that they have to make decisions when they are uncertain about the outcome (e.g., satisfaction level) of purchasing a product. To study people's preferences, economics researchers have proposed the hypothesis of Expected Utility (EU) that models the subject value associated with an individual's choice as the statistical expectations of that individual's valuations of the outcomes of this choice. Despite its success in studies of game theory and decisio…
Nowadays, E-commerce is increasingly integrated into our daily lives. Meanwhile, shopping process has also changed incrementally from one behavior (purchase) to multiple behaviors (such as view, carting and purchase). Therefore, utilizing interaction data of auxiliary behavior data draws a lot of attention in the E-commerce recommender systems. However, all existing models ignore two kinds of intrinsic heterogeneity which are helpful to capture the difference of user preferences and the difference of item attributes. First (intra-heterogeneity), each user has multiple social identities with ot…
University of Minnesota, Twin Cities（明尼苏达大学双城分校）；University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）；Alibaba Group（阿里巴巴集团）
Next-basket recommendation (NBR) is prevalent in e-commerce and retail industry. In this scenario, a user purchases a set of items (a basket) at a time. NBR performs sequential modeling and recommendation based on a sequence of baskets. NBR is in general more complex than the widely studied sequential (session-based) recommendation which recommends the next item based on a sequence of items. Recurrent neural network (RNN) has proved to be very effective for sequential modeling and thus been adapted for NBR. However, we argue that existing RNNs cannot directly capture item frequency information…
South China University of Technology（华南理工大学）；JD Finance America Corporation（京东金融美国公司）
Many previous studies aim to augment collaborative filtering with deep neural network techniques, so as to achieve better recommendation performance. However, most existing deep learning-based recommender systems are designed for modeling singular type of user-item interaction behavior, which can hardly distill the heterogeneous relations between user and item. In practical recommendation scenarios, there exist multityped user behaviors, such as browse and purchase. Due to the overlook of user's multi-behavioral patterns over different items, existing recommendation methods are insufficient to…
In order to steer e-commerce users towards making a purchase, marketers rely upon predictions of when users exit without purchasing. Previously, such predictions were based upon hidden Markov models (HMMs) due to their ability of modeling latent shopping phases with different user intents. In this work, we develop a duration-dependent hidden Markov model. In contrast to traditional HMMs, it explicitly models the duration of latent states and thereby allows states to become "sticky". The proposed model is superior to prior HMMs in detecting user exits: out of 100 user exits without purchase, it…
User preference modeling is a vital yet challenging problem in personalized product search. In recent years, latent space based methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance by jointly learning semantic representations of products, users, and text tokens. However, existing methods are limited in their ability to model user preferences. They typically represent users by the products they visited in a short span of time using attentive models and lack the ability to exploit relational information such as user-product interactions or item co-occurrence relations. In this work, we propose to …
In modern advertising and recommender systems, multi-task learning (MTL) paradigm has been widely employed to jointly predict diverse user feedbacks (e.g. click and purchase). While, existing MTL approaches are either rigid to adapt to different scenarios, or only capture coarse-grained task relatedness, thus making it difficult to effectively transfer knowledge across tasks. To address these issues, in this paper, we propose an Adaptive Fine-grained Task Relatedness modeling approach, AdaFTR, for joint CTR-CVR estimation. Our approach is developed based on a parameter-sharing MTL architecture…
