GW151216的天体物理学几率
The astrophysical odds of GW151216
摘要：
引力波候选者GW 151216是Advanced LIGO探测器首次观测到的一个二元黑洞事件。由于LIGO-Virgo合作没有将其确定为真正的信号，因此对其真实性存在分歧，其真实性由$p_\text{astro}$量化，该事件是天体物理起源的概率。先前不同人群的$p_\text{astro}$估计值范围为0.18 - 0.71，因此尚不清楚该事件是否应纳入人群分析，人群分析通常需要$p_\text{astro}>0.5$。GW 151216是否是一个天体物理学信号，对恒星质量黑洞的布居特性以及大质量恒星的演化都有影响。使用天体物理学的赔率，贝叶斯方法，使用探测器之间的信号相干性和非天体物理探测器噪声的参数化模型，我们发现，$p_\text{astro}=0.03$，这表明GW 151216是不太可能是一个真正的信号。我们还分析了GW 150914（第一次引力波探测）和GW 151012（最初被认为是一个模糊的探测），发现$p_\text{astro}$值分别为1和0.997。我们认为，这里提出的天体物理的赔率改善传统的方法区分信号和噪声。
英文摘要：
The gravitational-wave candidate GW151216 is a proposed binary black hole event from the first observing run of the Advanced LIGO detectors. Not identified as a bona fide signal by the LIGO--Virgo collaboration, there is disagreement as to its authenticity, which is quantified by $p_\text{astro}$, the probability that the event is astrophysical in origin. Previous estimates of $p_\text{astro}$ from different groups range from 0.18 to 0.71, making it unclear whether this event should be included in population analyses, which typically require $p_\text{astro}>0.5$. Whether GW151216 is an astrophysical signal or not has implications for the population properties of stellar-mass black holes and hence the evolution of massive stars. Using the astrophysical odds, a Bayesian method which uses the signal coherence between detectors and a parameterised model of non-astrophysical detector noise, we find that $p_\text{astro}=0.03$, suggesting that GW151216 is unlikely to be a genuine signal. We also analyse GW150914 (the first gravitational-wave detection) and GW151012 (initially considered to be an ambiguous detection) and find $p_\text{astro}$ values of 1 and 0.997 respectively. We argue that the astrophysical odds presented here improve upon traditional methods for distinguishing signals from noise.
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