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arXiv 2006.04732cs.LGstat.ML
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可解释机器学习的半参数方法

A Semiparametric Approach to Interpretable Machine Learning

Johns Hopkins University(约翰斯·霍普金斯大学)

Numair Sani, Jaron Lee, Razieh Nabi, Ilya Shpitser

摘要:

机器学习中的黑盒模型在复杂问题和高维环境中表现出出色的预测性能。然而,它们缺乏透明度和可解释性,限制了这些模型在关键决策过程中的适用性。为了克服这一缺点,我们提出了一种新的方法来权衡预测模型的可解释性和性能,使用半参数统计的思想,使我们能够将参数回归模型的可解释性与非参数方法的性能相结合。我们通过利用两件式模型来实现这一点:第一件是可解释的和参数化的,第二件是不可解释的剩余部分。使用充分降维文献中的方法优化整个模型的性能。基于影响函数的估计推导和证明是双重的强大。这允许使用诸如双机器学习之类的方法来估计我们的模型参数。我们通过模拟研究和基于预测手术患者在重症监护室的住院时间的数据应用说明了我们的方法的实用性。

英文摘要:

Black box models in machine learning have demonstrated excellent predictive performance in complex problems and high-dimensional settings. However, their lack of transparency and interpretability restrict the applicability of such models in critical decision-making processes. In order to combat this shortcoming, we propose a novel approach to trading off interpretability and performance in prediction models using ideas from semiparametric statistics, allowing us to combine the interpretability of parametric regression models with performance of nonparametric methods. We achieve this by utilizing a two-piece model: the first piece is interpretable and parametric, to which a second, uninterpretable residual piece is added. The performance of the overall model is optimized using methods from the sufficient dimension reduction literature. Influence function based estimators are derived and shown to be doubly robust. This allows for use of approaches such as double Machine Learning in estimating our model parameters. We illustrate the utility of our approach via simulation studies and a data application based on predicting the length of stay in the intensive care unit among surgery patients.

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