We study a dynamics of the epidemiological infection spreading at different values of the risk factor $β$ (a control parameter) with the using of dynamic Monte Carlo approach (DMC). In our toy model, the infection transmits due to contacts of randomly moving individuals. We show that the behavior of recovereds critically depends on the $β$ value. For sub-critical values $β<β_{c}\sim 0.6$, the number of infected cases asymptotically converges to zero, such that for a moderate risk factor the infection may disappear with time. Our simulations shown that over time, the properties of such a system asymptotically become close to the critical transition in 2D percolation system. We also analyzed an extended system, which includes two additional parameters: the limits of taking on/off quarantine state. It is found that the early quarantine off does result in the irregular (with positive Lyapunov exponent) oscillatory dynamics of infection. If the lower limit of the quarantine off is small enough, the recovery dynamics acquirers a characteristic nonmonotonic shape with several damped peaks. The dynamics of infection spreading in case of the individuals with immunity is studied too.
In this work, we aim to understand the influence of the heterogeneity of infection rates on the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spreading. Employing the classic SIS model as the benchmark, we study the influence of the independently identically distributed infection rates on the average fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state. The log-normal, gamma and a newly designed distributions are considered for infection rates. We find that, when the recovery rate is small, i.e.\ the epidemic spreads out in both homogeneous and heterogeneous cases: 1) the heterogeneity of infe…
We study a susceptible-vaccinated--infected--recovered (SVIR) epidemic-spreading model with diversity of infection rate of the individuals. By means of analytical arguments as well as extensive computer simulations, we demonstrate that the heterogeneity in infection rate can either impede or accelerate the epidemic spreading, which depends on the amount of vaccinated individuals introduced in the population as well as the contact pattern among the individuals. Remarkably, as long as the individuals with different capability of acquiring the disease interact with unequal frequency, there always…
Analysis of non pharmaceutical interventions with SIR epidemic models: decreasing the infection peak vs. minimizing the epidemic size
Instituto Balseiro, Universidad Nacional de Cuyo（巴塞尔罗研究所，门多萨国立大学）；Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica（国家原子能委员会）；Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET)（国家科学研究委员会）；Centro Atómico Bariloche (CNEA)（巴里洛切原子中心）
We study a simple case of the susceptible-weakened-infected-removed model in regular random graphs in a situation where an epidemic starts from a finite fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds). Previous studies have shown that, assuming a single seed, this model exhibits a kind of discontinuous transition at a certain value of infection rate. Performing Monte Carlo simulations and evaluating approximate master equations, we find that the present model has two critical infection rates for the case with a finite seed fraction. At the first critical rate the system shows a percolation transi…
The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold depends on the natural history of the disease and on the pattern of contacts of the network with its time variation. Based on the theoretical framework introduced in (Valdano et al. PRX 2015) for a susceptible-infectious-susceptible model, we formulate here an infection propagator approach to compute the epidemic threshold accounting for more realistic effects regarding a varying force o…
We discuss various models for epidemics on networks that rely on Markov chains. Random walks on graphs are often used to predict epidemic spread and to investigate possible control actions to mitigate them. In this study, we demonstrate that they do not fully reflect the dynamics of epidemics, as they overestimate infection times. Accordingly, we explain how Markov chains may still be used to accurately model the virus spread, and to correctly predict infection times. We also provide an algorithm that efficiently estimates infection times via a sampling strategy. Finally, we present a novel in…
We introduce a new method to efficiently approximate the number of infections resulting from a given initially-infected node in a network of susceptible individuals. Our approach is based on counting the number of possible infection walks of various lengths to each other node in the network. We analytically study the properties of our method, in particular demonstrating different forms for SIS and SIR disease spreading (e.g. under the SIR model our method counts self-avoiding walks). In comparison to existing methods to infer the spreading efficiency of different nodes in the network (based on…
We investigate phase transitions associated with three control methods for epidemics on small world networks. Motivated by the behavior of SARS-CoV-2, we construct a theoretical SIR model of a virus that exhibits presymptomatic, asymptomatic, and symptomatic stages in two possible pathways. Using agent-based simulations on small world networks, we observe phase transitions for epidemic spread related to: 1) Global social distancing with a fixed probability of adherence. 2) Individually initiated social isolation when a threshold number of contacts are infected. 3) Viral shedding rate. The prim…
In epidemic modeling, the term infection strength indicates the ratio of infection rate and cure rate. If the infection strength is higher than a certain threshold -- which we define as the epidemic threshold - then the epidemic spreads through the population and persists in the long run. For a single generic graph representing the contact network of the population under consideration, the epidemic threshold turns out to be equal to the inverse of the spectral radius of the contact graph. However, in a real world scenario it is not possible to isolate a population completely: there is always s…
In this paper, we continue development of the new epidemiological model HIT, which is suitable for analyzing and predicting the propagation of COVID-19 epidemics. This is a discrete-time model allowing a reconstruction of the dynamics of asymptomatic virus holders using the available daily statistics on the number of new cases. We suggest to use a new indicator, the total infection rate, to distinguish the propagation and recession modes of the epidemic. We check our indicator on the available data for eleven different countries and for the whole world. Our reconstructions are very precise. In…
In this work we study a modified Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model in which the infection rate $λ$ decays exponentially with the number of reinfections $n$, saturating after $n=l$. We find a critical decaying rate $ε_{c}(l)$ above which a finite fraction of the population becomes permanently infected. From the mean-field solution and computer simulations on hypercubic lattices we find evidences that the upper critical dimension is 6 like in the SIR model, which can be mapped in ordinary percolation.
We study the effect of external infection sources on phase transitions in epidemic processes. In particular, we consider an epidemic spreading on a network via the SIS/SIR dynamics, which in addition is aided by external agents - sources unconstrained by the graph, but possessing a limited infection rate or virulence. Such a model captures many existing models of externally aided epidemics, and finds use in many settings - epidemiology, marketing and advertising, network robustness, etc. We provide a detailed characterization of the impact of external agents on epidemic thresholds. In particul…
Nowcasting and forecasting of epidemic spreading rely on incidence series of reported cases to derive the fundamental epidemiological parameters for a given pathogen. Two relevant drawbacks for predictions are the unknown fractions of undocumented cases and levels of nonpharmacological interventions, which span highly heterogeneously across different places and times. We describe a simple data-driven approach using a compartmental model including asymptomatic and presymptomatic contagions that allows to estimate both the level of undocumented infections and the value of effective reproductive …
Recent studies in network science and control have shown a meaningful relationship between the epidemic processes (e.g., COVID-19 spread) and some network properties. This paper studies how such network properties, namely clustering coefficient and centrality measures (or node influence metrics), affect the spread of viruses and the growth of epidemics over scale-free networks. The results can be used to target individuals (the nodes in the network) to \textit{flatten the infection curve}. This so-called flattening of the infection curve is to reduce the health service costs and burden to the …
The epidemic spreading has been widely studied when each node may get infected by an infected neighbor with the same rate. However, the infection rate between a pair of nodes is usually heterogeneous and even correlated with their nodal degrees in the contact network. We aim to understand how such correlated heterogeneous infection rates influence the spreading on different network topologies. Motivated by real-world datasets, we propose a correlated heterogeneous Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible model which assumes that the infection rate $β_{ij}(=β_{ji})$ between node $i$ and $j$ is correlat…
Cator and Van Mieghem [Cator E, Van Mieghem P., Phys. Rev. E 89, 052802 (2014)] stated that the correlation of infection at the same time between any pair of nodes in a network is non-negative for the Markovian SIS and SIR epidemic models. The arguments used to obtain this result rely strongly on the graphical construction of the stochastic process, as well as the FKG inequality. In this note we show that although the approach used by the authors applies to the SIS model, it cannot be used for the SIR model as stated in their work. In particular, we observe that monotonicity in the process is …
The epidemic spreading has been studied for years by applying the mean-field approach in both homogeneous case, where each node may get infected by an infected neighbor with the same rate, and heterogeneous case, where the infection rates between different pairs of nodes are different. Researchers have discussed whether the mean-field approaches could accurately describe the epidemic spreading for the homogeneous cases but not for the heterogeneous cases. In this paper, we explore under what conditions the mean-field approach could perform well when the infection rates are heterogeneous. In pa…
We propose a novel SIR epidemic model which is driven by the transmission of infection packets in networks. Specifically, infected nodes generate and deliver infection packets causing the spread of the epidemic, while recovered nodes block the delivery of infection packets, and this inhibits the epidemic spreading. The efficient routing protocol governed by a control parameter $α$ is used in the packet transmission. We obtain the maximum instantaneous population of infected nodes, the maximum population of ever infected nodes, as well as the corresponding optimal $α$ through simulation. We fin…
We explore how heterogeneity in the intensity of interactions between people affects epidemic spreading. For that, we study the susceptible-infected-susceptible model on a complex network, where a link connecting individuals $i$ and $j$ is endowed with an infection rate $β_{ij} = λw_{ij}$ proportional to the intensity of their contact $w_{ij}$, with a distribution $P(w_{ij})$ taken from face-to-face experiments analyzed in Cattuto $et\;al.$ (PLoS ONE 5, e11596, 2010). We find an extremely slow decay of the fraction of infected individuals, for a wide range of the control parameter $λ$. Using a…
We consider the effect of a nonvanishing fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds) on the SIR epidemic model on random networks. This is relevant when, for example, the number of arriving infected individuals is large, but also to the modeling of a large number of infected individuals, but also to more general situations such as the spread of ideas in the presence of publicity campaigns. This model is frequently studied by mapping to a bond percolation problem, in which edges in the network are occupied with the probability, $p$, of eventual infection along an edge connecting an infected in…
Real epidemic spreading networks often composed of several kinds of networks interconnected with each other, and the interrelated networks have the different topologies and epidemic dynamics. Moreover, most human diseases are derived from animals, and the zoonotic infections always spread on interconnected networks. In this paper, we consider the epidemic spreading on one-way circular-coupled network consist of three interconnected subnetworks. Here, two one-way three-layer circular interactive networks are established by introducing the heterogeneous mean-field approach method, then we get th…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of the infection channels are still not fully understood. Here we apply the SIR model and study analytically and numerically the epidemic spread on a recently developed spatial modular model imitating the structure of cities in a country. The model assumes that inside a city the infection channels connect many different locations, while the infection channels be…
We propose an SEIR-type meta-population model to simulate and monitor the Covid-19 epidemic evolution. The basic model consists of seven compartments, namely susceptible (S), exposed (E), three infective classes, recovered (R), and deceased (D). We define these compartments for n age and gender groups in m different spatial locations. So, the resulting model has, for each age group, gender, and place, all epidemiological classes. The mixing between them is accomplished by means of time-dependent infection rate matrices. The model is calibrated with the curve of daily new infections in New York…
The basic reproductive number -- $R_0$ -- is one of the most common and most commonly misapplied numbers in public health. Although often used to compare outbreaks and forecast pandemic risk, this single number belies the complexity that two different pathogens can exhibit, even when they have the same $R_0$. Here, we show how to predict outbreak size using estimates of the distribution of secondary infections, leveraging both its average $R_0$ and the underlying heterogeneity. To do so, we reformulate and extend a classic result from random network theory that relies on contact tracing data t…
Empirical studies suggest that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event times, meaning that intervals of high activity are followed by periods of inactivity. Combined with birth and death of individuals, these temporal constraints affect the spread of infections in a non-trivial way and are dependent on the particular contact dynamics. We propose a stochastic model to generate temporal networks where vertices make instantaneous contacts following heterogeneous inter-event times, and leave and enter the system at fixed rates. We study how these temporal properties affect the prevalence…
We study epidemic processes with immunization on very large 1-dimensional lattices, where at least some of the infections are non-local, with rates decaying as power laws p(x) ~ x^{-sigma-1} for large distances x. When starting with a single infected site, the cluster of infected sites stays always bounded if $σ>1$ (and dies with probability 1, of its size is allowed to fluctuate down to zero), but the process can lead to an infinite epidemic for sigma <1. For sigma <0 the behavior is essentially of mean field type, but for 0 < sigma <= 1 the behavior is non-trivial, both for the critical and …
Epidemic spreading can be suppressed by the introduction of containment measures such as social distancing and lock downs. Yet, when such measures are relaxed, new epidemic waves and infection cycles may occur. Here we explore this issue in compartmentalized epidemic models on graphs in presence of a feedback between the infection state of the population and the structure of its social network for the case of discontinuous control. We show that in random graphs the effect of containment measures is simply captured by a renormalization of the effective infection rate that accounts for the chang…
The spread of certain diseases can be promoted, in some cases substantially, by prior infection with another disease. One example is that of HIV, whose immunosuppressant effects significantly increase the chances of infection with other pathogens. Such coinfection processes, when combined with nontrivial structure in the contact networks over which diseases spread, can lead to complex patterns of epidemiological behavior. Here we consider a mathematical model of two diseases spreading through a single population, where infection with one disease is dependent on prior infection with the other. …
We consider a general criterion to discern the nature of the threshold in epidemic models on scale-free (SF) networks. Comparing the epidemic lifespan of the nodes with largest degrees with the infection time between them, we propose a general dual scenario, in which the epidemic transition is either ruled by a hub activation process, leading to a null threshold in the thermodynamic limit, or given by a collective activation process, corresponding to a standard phase transition with a finite threshold. We validate the proposed criterion applying it to different epidemic models, with waning imm…
We define and examine a model of epidemic propagation for a virus such as Hepatitis C (with HIV co-infection) on a network of networks, namely the network of French urban areas. One network level is that of the individual interactions inside each urban area. The second level is that of the areas themselves, linked by individuals travelling between these areas and potentially helping the epidemic spread from one city to another. We choose to encode the second level of the network as extra, special nodes in the first level. We observe that such an encoding leads to sensible results in terms of t…
Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of both network structure and temporal dimensions. Theoretical approaches are much needed for identifying key factors that affect dynamics of epidemics. In particular, what factors make some temporal networks stronger media of infection than other temporal networks is under debate. We develop a theory to understand the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic mod…
Studying the spatiotemporal differences in coronavirus disease (COVID-19) between social groups such as healthcare workers (HCWs) and patients can aid in formulating epidemic containment policies. Most previous studies of the spatiotemporal characteristics of COVID-19 were conducted in a single group and did not explore the differences between groups. To fill this research gap, this study assessed the spatiotemporal characteristics and differences among patients and HCWs infection in Wuhan, Hubei (excluding Wuhan), and China (excluding Hubei). The temporal difference was greater in Wuhan than …
An actively controlled Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (actSIS) contagion model is presented for studying epidemic dynamics with continuous-time feedback control of infection rates. Our work is inspired by the observation that epidemics can be controlled through decentralized disease-control strategies such as quarantining, sheltering in place, social distancing, etc., where individuals actively modify their contact rates with others in response to observations of infection levels in the population. Accounting for a time lag in observations and categorizing individuals into distinct sub-popul…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We develop an individual-based approximation for the susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model applicable to arbitrary dynamic networks. Our framework provides, at the individual-level, the probability flow over time associated with the infection dynamics. This computationally efficient framework discards the correlation between the states of different nodes…
This paper investigates the effect of the structure of the contact network on the dynamics of the epidemic outbreak. In particular, we focus on the peak number of critically infected nodes (PCIN), determining the maximum workload of intensive healthcare units which should be kept low. As a model and simulation method, we develop a continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model and an efficient simulation-based on Gillespie's Stochastic Simulation Algorithm (SSA). This methods combine a realistic approximation of the stochastic process not relying on the assumptions of mean-field models and large as…
On the basis of a compartment model, the epidemic curve is investigated when the net rate $λ$ of change of the number of infected individuals $I$ is given by an ellipse in the $λ$-$I$ plane which is supported in $[I_{\ell}, I_h]$. With $a \equiv (I_h - I_{\ell})/(I_h + I_{\ell})$, it is shown that (1) when $a < 1$ or $I_{\ell} >0$, oscillation of the infection curve is self-organized and the period of the oscillation is in proportion to the ratio of the difference $ (I_h - I_{\ell})$ and the geometric mean $\sqrt{I_h I_{\ell}}$ of $I_h$ and $I_{\ell}$, (2) when $a = 1$, the infection curve sho…
We develop a theory for the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model on networks that incorporate both network structure and dynamic correlations. This theory can account for the multistage onset of the epidemic phase in scale-free networks. This phenomenon is characterized by multiple peaks in the susceptibility as a function of the infection rate. It can be explained by that, even under the global epidemic threshold, a hub can sustain the epidemics for an extended period. Moreover, our approach improves theoretical calculations of prevalence close to the threshold in heterogeneo…
Contacts between individuals serve as pathways where infections may propagate. These contact patterns can be represented by network structures. Static structures have been the common modeling paradigm but recent results suggest that temporal structures play different roles to regulate the spread of infections or infection-like dynamics. On temporal networks a vertex is active only at certain moments and inactive otherwise such that a contact is not continuously available. In several empirical networks, the time between two consecutive vertex-activation events typically follows heterogeneous ac…
Transmission rates in epidemic outbreaks may vary over time depending on the societal response. Non-pharmacological mitigation strategies such as social distancing and the adoption of protective equipment aim precisely at reducing transmission rates by reducing infectious contacts. To investigate the effects of mitigation strategies on the evolution of epidemics, nonlinear transmission rates that are influenced by the levels of infections, deaths or recoveries have been included in many variants of the classical SIR model. This class of models is particularly relevant to the COVID-19 epidemic,…
This paper investigates the dynamics of infectious diseases with a non-exponentially distributed infectious period. This is achieved by considering a multi-stage infection model on networks. Using pairwise approximation with a standard closure, a number of important characteristics of disease dynamics are derived analytically, including the final size of an epidemic and a threshold for epidemic outbreaks, and it is shown how these quantities depend on disease characteristics, as well as the number of disease stages. Stochastic simulations of dynamics on networks are performed and compared to t…
We study the phase transition from the persistence phase to the extinction phase for the SIRS (susceptible/ infected/ refractory/ susceptible) model of diseases spreading on the networks. We derive an analytical expression of the probability for the descendants nodes to re-infect their ancestors nodes. We find that, in the case of the recovery time $τ_R$ is larger than the infection time $τ_I$, the infection will flow directionally from the ancestors to the descendants however, the descendants will not able to reinfect their ancestors during their infection time. This behavior leads us to dedu…
A model for epidemic spreading on rewiring networks is introduced and analyzed for the case of scale free steady state networks. It is found that contrary to what one would have naively expected, the rewiring process typically tends to suppress epidemic spreading. In particular it is found that as in static networks, rewiring networks with degree distribution exponent $γ>3$ exhibit a threshold in the infection rate below which epidemics die out in the steady state. However the threshold is higher in the rewiring case. For $2<γ\leq 3$ no such threshold exists, but for small infection rate the s…
We investigate the spread of an infection or other malfunction of cascading nature when a system component can recover only if it remains reachable from a functioning central component. We consider the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, typical of mathematical epidemiology, on a network. Infection spreads from infected to healthy nodes, with the addition that infected nodes can only recover when they remain connected to a predefined central node, through a path that contains only healthy nodes. In this system, clusters of infected nodes will absorb their noninfected interior because no pa…
While COVID-19 is rapidly propagating around the globe, the need for providing real-time forecasts of the epidemics pushes fits of dynamical and statistical models to available data beyond their capabilities. Here we focus on statistical predictions of COVID-19 infections performed by fitting asymptotic distributions to actual data. By taking as a case-study the epidemic evolution of total COVID-19 infections in Chinese provinces and Italian regions, we find that predictions are characterized by large uncertainties at the early stages of the epidemic growth. Those uncertainties significantly r…
The SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic model on an arbitrary network, without making approximations, is a $2^n$-state Markov chain with a unique absorbing state (the all-healthy state). This makes analysis of the SIS model and, in particular, determining the threshold of epidemic spread quite challenging. It has been shown that the exact marginal probabilities of infection can be upper bounded by an $n$-dimensional linear time-invariant system, a consequence of which is that the Markov chain is "fast-mixing" when the LTI system is stable, i.e. when $\fracβδ<\frac{1}{λ_{\max}(A)}$ …
We analyse 'stop-and-go' containment policies that produce infection cycles as periods of tight lockdowns are followed by periods of falling infection rates. The subsequent relaxation of containment measures allows cases to increase again until another lockdown is imposed and the cycle repeats. The policies followed by several European countries during the Covid-19 pandemic seem to fit this pattern. We show that 'stop-and-go' should lead to lower medical costs than keeping infections at the midpoint between the highs and lows produced by 'stop-and-go'. Increasing the upper and reducing the low…
Interactions in biology and social systems are not restricted to pairwise but can take arbitrary sizes. Extensive studies have revealed that the arbitrary-sized interactions significantly affect the spreading dynamics on networked systems. Competing spreading dynamics, i.e., several epidemics spread simultaneously and compete with each other, have been widely observed in the real world, yet the way arbitrary-sized interactions affect competing spreading dynamics still lacks systematic study. This study presents a model of two competing simplicial susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemics on a…
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the population. Infections that are not contagious enough die out before they spread to a large fraction of people. We characterize how the maximal extinction time in SIR simulations on networks depend on the network structure. For example we find that the average distances in isolated components, weighted by the component size, is a good predictor of the maximal…
