arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2005.12180astro-ph.SR
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利用光球上方磁场诊断预报太阳耀斑

Solar Flare Prediction Using Magnetic Field Diagnostics Above the Photosphere

M. B. Korsos, M. K. Georgoulis, N. Gyenge, S. K. Bisoi, S. Yu, S. Poedts, C. J. Nelson, J. Liu, Y. Yan, R. Erdelyi

摘要:

本文介绍了加权水平磁场梯度(WGM)耀斑预测方法在13个耀斑活动区(AR)三维外推磁位形中的应用。的主要目的是确定一个最佳的高度范围,如果有的话,在光球和低日冕之间的界面区域,在那里的耀斑爆发时间预测能力的WGM是最好的利用。最佳高度是耀斑预测,通过WGM方法,实现早于光球水平。三维磁结构,基于潜在的和非线性的无力场外推,构建研究的垂直范围从光球到低日冕的45公里的步长。WGM方法作为高度的函数应用于所有13个受某些选择标准约束的外展AR案例。我们发现,在太阳表面1000 ~ 1800 km的高度上应用WGM方法,可以使耀斑爆发时间的预测提高2-8小时,并对今后的工作提出了一些建议。

英文摘要:

In this article, we present the application of the weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (WGM) flare prediction method to 3-dimensional (3D) extrapolated magnetic configurations of 13 flaring solar active regions (ARs). The main aim is to identify an optimal height range, if any, in the interface region between the photosphere and lower corona, where the flare onset time prediction capability of WGM is best exploited. The optimal height is where flare prediction, by means of the WGM method, is achieved earlier than at the photospheric level. 3D magnetic structures, based on potential and non-linear force-free field extrapolations, are constructed to study a vertical range from the photosphere up to the low corona with a 45 km step size. The WGM method is applied as a function of height to all 13 flaring AR cases that are subject to certain selection criteria. We found that applying the WGM method between 1000 and 1800 km above the solar surface would improve the prediction of the flare onset time by around 2-8 hours.Certain caveats and an outlook for future work along these lines are also discussed.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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