生产网络与疫情蔓延：如何重启UK经济？
Production networks and epidemic spreading: How to restart the UK economy?
摘要：
我们分析了英国经济分阶段重启的不同情景的经济学和流行病学。我们的经济模式旨在应对COVID-19疫情的独特特征。社会距离措施影响供给和需求，投入产出约束在限制经济产出方面发挥关键作用。生产函数的标准模型不足以模拟封锁的短期影响。IHS Markit对行业分析师进行的一项调查使我们能够评估每个行业在两个月内生产所必需的投入。我们的模型还包括库存动态和失业与消费之间的反馈。我们证明了经济结果对生产函数的选择非常敏感，展示了供给约束如何导致强大的网络效应，并发现了一些反直觉的效应，例如只重新开放少数行业实际上会降低总产出。特定职业的数据和接触调查使我们能够估计不同行业如何影响疾病的传播率。我们研究了六种不同的重新开放情景，提出了我们对R 0增长和GDP增长的最佳估计。我们的研究结果表明，存在一个合理的折衷方案，可以使R 0相对较小地增加，并大幅提高经济产出。这与所有非消费者行业重新开放，学校只为需要儿童保育的工人开放，所有可以在家工作的人继续在家工作的情况相对应。
英文摘要：
We analyse the economics and epidemiology of different scenarios for a phased restart of the UK economy. Our economic model is designed to address the unique features of the COVID-19 pandemic. Social distancing measures affect both supply and demand, and input-output constraints play a key role in restricting economic output. Standard models for production functions are not adequate to model the short-term effects of lockdown. A survey of industry analysts conducted by IHS Markit allows us to evaluate which inputs for each industry are absolutely necessary for production over a two month period. Our model also includes inventory dynamics and feedback between unemployment and consumption. We demonstrate that economic outcomes are very sensitive to the choice of production function, show how supply constraints cause strong network effects, and find some counter-intuitive effects, such as that reopening only a few industries can actually lower aggregate output. Occupation-specific data and contact surveys allow us to estimate how different industries affect the transmission rate of the disease. We investigate six different re-opening scenarios, presenting our best estimates for the increase in R0 and the increase in GDP. Our results suggest that there is a reasonable compromise that yields a relatively small increase in R0 and delivers a substantial boost in economic output. This corresponds to a situation in which all non-consumer facing industries reopen, schools are open only for workers who need childcare, and everyone who can work from home continues to work from home.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
