生产网络上的困境传播：联系的粗粒化和模块化
Distress propagation on production networks: Coarse-graining and modularity of linkages
摘要：
灾难传播发生在连通的网络中，其速度和程度取决于网络拓扑结构。为了研究这一点，我们选择经济生产网络作为一个范式。可以在许多层面上审查经济网络：个体行为者之间的联系（微观）、公司/部门之间的联系（中观）或国家之间的联系（宏观）。新涌现的动力学性质出现在每一个层次上，因此粒度很重要。对于病毒性流行病，即使是单个节点也可能成为痛苦的中心，并可能影响整个网络。然而，众所周知，经济网络在微观层面上不受影响，在中观/宏观层面上更容易失败。我们提出了一个动态的相互作用模型来描述的机制，遇险传播，在不同的震中发起的网络的不同模块。易受攻击的模块通常会导致很大程度的不稳定。我们证明了我们的方法，使用一个独特的经验数据集的投入产出联系在0.14万企业在一个行政状态的印度，发展中经济体。该网络具有多个轴辐结构，表现出适度的离散性，这与粗粒化的水平。新颖之处在于在不同层次的粒度或模块化的生产网络的特点，并找到“太大而不能失败”的模块取代“太中央而不能失败”的模块在遇险传播。
英文摘要：
Distress propagation occurs in connected networks, its rate and extent being dependent on network topology. To study this, we choose economic production networks as a paradigm. An economic network can be examined at many levels: linkages among individual agents (microscopic), among firms/sectors (mesoscopic) or among countries (macroscopic). New emergent dynamical properties appear at every level, so the granularity matters. For viral epidemics, even an individual node may act as an epicenter of distress and potentially affect the entire network. Economic networks, however, are known to be immune at the micro-levels and more prone to failure in the meso/macro-levels. We propose a dynamical interaction model to characterize the mechanism of distress propagation, across different modules of a network, initiated at different epicenters. Vulnerable modules often lead to large degrees of destabilization. We demonstrate our methodology using a unique empirical data-set of input-output linkages across 0.14 million firms in one administrative state of India, a developing economy. The network has multiple hub-and-spoke structures that exhibits moderate disassortativity, which varies with the level of coarse-graining. The novelty lies in characterizing the production network at different levels of granularity or modularity, and finding `too-big-to-fail' modules supersede `too-central-to-fail' modules in distress propagation.
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