Many real-world social networks constantly change their global properties over time, such as the number of edges, size and density. While temporal and local properties of social networks have been extensively studied, the origin of their dynamical nature is not yet well understood. Networks may grow or shrink if a) the total population of nodes changes and/or b) the chance of two nodes being connected varies over time. Here, we develop a method that allows us to classify the source of time-varying nature of temporal networks. In doing so, we first show empirical evidence that real-world dynamical systems could be categorized into two classes, the difference of which is characterized by the way the number of edges grows with the number of active nodes, i.e., densification scaling. We develop a dynamic hidden-variable model to formally characterize the two dynamical classes. The model is fitted to the empirical data to identify whether the origin of scaling comes from a changing population in the system or shifts in the connecting probabilities.
Temporal social networks of human interactions are preponderant in understanding the fundamental patterns of human behavior. In these networks, interactions occur locally between individuals (i.e., nodes) who connect with each other at different times, culminating into a complex system-wide web that has a dynamic composition. Dynamic behavior in networks occurs not only locally but also at the global level, as systems expand or shrink due either to: changes in the size of node population or variations in the chance of a connection between two nodes. Here, we propose a numerical maximum-likelih…
Densification and sparsification of temporal networks are attributed to two fundamental mechanisms: a change in the population in the system and/or a change in the chances that nodes in the system are connected. In theory, each of these mechanisms generates a distinctive type of densification scaling, but in reality both types are generally mixed. Here, we develop a Bayesian statistical method to identify the extent to which each of these mechanisms is at play at a given point in time, taking the mixed densification scaling as input. We apply the method to networks of face-to-face interactions…
Online multiplayer games are a popular form of social interaction, used by hundreds of millions of individuals. However, little is known about the social networks within these online games, or how they evolve over time. Understanding human social dynamics within massive online games can shed new light on social interactions in general and inform the development of more engaging systems. Here, we study a novel, large friendship network, inferred from nearly 18 billion social interactions over 44 weeks between 17 million individuals in the popular online game Halo: Reach. This network is one of …
Numerous urban indicators scale with population in a power law across cities, but whether the cross-sectional scaling law is applicable to the temporal growth of individual cities is unclear. Here we first find two paradoxical scaling relationships that urban built-up area sub-linearly scales with population across cities, but super-linearly scales with population over time in most individual cities because urban land expands faster than population grows. Different cities have diverse temporal scaling exponents and one city even has opposite temporal scaling regimes during two periods, strongl…
For the study of information propagation, one fundamental problem is uncovering universal laws governing the dynamics of information propagation. This problem, from the microscopic perspective, is formulated as estimating the propagation probability that a piece of information propagates from one individual to another. Such a propagation probability generally depends on two major classes of factors: the intrinsic attractiveness of information and the interactions between individuals. Despite the fact that the temporal effect of attractiveness is widely studied, temporal laws underlying individ…
Research institutions provide the infrastructure for scientific discovery, yet their role in the production of knowledge is not well characterized. To address this gap, we analyze interactions of researchers within and between institutions from millions of scientific papers. Our analysis reveals that the number of collaborations scales superlinearly with institution size, though at different rates (heterogeneous densification). We also find that the number of institutions scales with the number of researchers as a power law (Heaps' law) and institution sizes approximate Zipf's law. These patte…
We show that activity of online news outlets follows a temporal fluctuation scaling law and we recover this feature using an independent cascade model augmented with a varying hype parameter representing a viral potential of an original article. We use the Event Registry platform to track activity of over 10,000 news outlets in 11 different topics in the course of the year 2016. Analyzing over 22,000,000 articles, we found that fluctuation scaling exponents $α$ depend on time window size $Δ$ in a characteristic way for all the considered topics -- news outlets activities are partially synchron…
The factorial moments analyses are performed to study the scaling properties of the dynamical fluctuations of contacts and nodes in temporal networks based on empirical data sets. The intermittent behaviors are observed in the fluctuations for all orders of the moments. It indicates that the interaction has self-similarity structure in time interval and the fluctuations are not purely random but dynamical and correlated. The scaling exponents for contacts in Prostitution data and nodes in Conference data are very close to that for 2D Ising model undergoing a second-order phase transition.
For a long time, many methods are developed to make temporal signal analyses based on time series. However, for geographical systems, spatial signal analyses are as important as temporal signal analyses. Nonstationary spatial and temporal processes are associated with nonlinearity, and cannot be effectively analyzed by conventional analytical approaches. Fractal theory provides a powerful tool for exploring complexity and is helpful for spatio-temporal signal analysis. This paper is devoted to researching spatial signals of geographical systems by means of wave-spectrum scaling. The traffic ne…
Research collaborations provide the foundation for scientific advances, but we have only recently begun to understand how they form and grow on a global scale. Here we analyze a model of the growth of research collaboration networks to explain the empirical observations that the number of collaborations scales superlinearly with institution size, though at different rates (heterogeneous densification), the number of institutions grows as a power of the number of researchers (Heaps' law) and institution sizes approximate Zipf's law. This model has three mechanisms: (i) researchers are preferent…
The electrical energy system has attracted much attention from an increasingly diverse research community. Many theoretical predictions have been made, from scaling laws of fluctuations to propagation velocities of disturbances. However, to validate any theory, empirical data from large-scale power systems are necessary but are rarely shared openly. Here, we analyse an open data base of measurements of electric power grid frequencies across 17 locations in 12 synchronous areas on three continents. The power grid frequency is of particular interest, as it indicates the balance of supply and dem…
The formation of network structure is mainly influenced by an individual node's activity and its memory, where activity can usually be interpreted as the individual inherent property and memory can be represented by the interaction strength between nodes. In our study, we define the activity through the appearance pattern in the time-aggregated network representation, and quantify the memory through the contact pattern of empirical temporal networks. To address the role of activity and memory in epidemics on time-varying networks, we propose temporal-pattern coarsening of activity-driven growi…
We propose dynamic scaling in temporal networks with heterogeneous activities and memory, and provide a comprehensive picture for the dynamic topologies of such networks, in terms of the modified activity-driven network model [H. Kim \textit{et al.}, Eur. Phys. J. B {\bf 88}, 315 (2015)]. Particularly, we focus on the interplay of the time resolution and memory in dynamic topologies. Through the random walk (RW) process, we investigate diffusion properties and topological changes as the time resolution increases. Our results with memory are compared to those of the memoryless case. Based on th…
Temporal inhomogeneities observed in various natural and social phenomena have often been characterized in terms of scaling behaviors in the autocorrelation function with a decaying exponent $γ$, the interevent time distribution with a power-law exponent $α$, and the burst size distributions. Here the interevent time is defined as a time interval between two consecutive events in the event sequence, and the burst size denotes the number of events in a bursty train detected for a given time window. In order to understand such temporal scaling behaviors implying a hierarchical temporal structure…
Background: Zipf's discovery that word frequency distributions obey a power law established parallels between biological and physical processes, and language, laying the groundwork for a complex systems perspective on human communication. More recent research has also identified scaling regularities in the dynamics underlying the successive occurrences of events, suggesting the possibility of similar findings for language as well. Methodology/Principal Findings: By considering frequent words in USENET discussion groups and in disparate databases where the language has different levels of forma…
Recently, with the availability of various traffic datasets, human mobility has been studied in different contexts. Researchers attempt to understand the collective behaviors of human movement with respect to the spatio-temporal distribution in traffic dynamics, from which a gravitational scaling law characterizing the relation between the traffic flow, population and distance has been found. However, most studies focus on the integrated properties of gravitational scaling, neglecting its dynamical evolution during different hours of a day. Investigating the hourly traffic flow data of Beijing…
Over the past decades much effort has been devoted towards understanding and forecasting natural hazards. However, earthquake forecasting skill is still very limited and remains a great scientific challenge. The limited earthquake predictability is partly due to the erratic nature of earthquakes and partly to the lack of understanding the underlying mechanisms of earthquakes. To improve our understanding and potential forecasting, here we study the spatial and temporal long-term memory of interevent earthquakes above a certain magnitude using lagged conditional probabilities. We find, in real …
The temporal statistics exhibited by written correspondence appear to be media dependent, with features which have so far proven difficult to characterize. We explain the origin of these difficulties by disentangling the role of spontaneous activity from decision-based prioritizing processes in human dynamics, clocking all waiting times through each agent's `proper time' measured by activity. This unveils the same fundamental patterns in written communication across all media (letters, email, sms), with response times displaying truncated power-law behavior and average exponents near -3/2. Whe…
Scaling-law-informed neural point processes for earthquake sequence forecasting
Yunnan Key Laboratory of Complex Systems and Brain-Inspired Intelligence（云南省复杂系统与类脑智能重点实验室）；Kunming University of Science and Technology（昆明理工大学）；Faculty of Science, Kunming University of Science and Technology（昆明理工大学理学院）；Environmental Physics, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev（内盖夫本古里安大学环境物理系）；Ben-Gurion University of the Negev（内盖夫本古里安大学）
