Temporal inhomogeneities observed in various natural and social phenomena have often been characterized in terms of scaling behaviors in the autocorrelation function with a decaying exponent $γ$, the interevent time distribution with a power-law exponent $α$, and the burst size distributions. Here the interevent time is defined as a time interval between two consecutive events in the event sequence, and the burst size denotes the number of events in a bursty train detected for a given time window. In order to understand such temporal scaling behaviors implying a hierarchical temporal structure, we devise a hierarchical burst model by assuming that each observed event might be a consequence of the multi-level causal or decision-making process. By studying our model analytically and numerically, we confirm the scaling relation $α+γ=2$, established for the uncorrelated interevent times, despite of the existence of correlations between interevent times. Such correlations between interevent times are supported by the stretched exponential burst size distributions, for which we provide an analytic argument. In addition, by imposing conditions for the ordering of events, we observe an additional feature of log-periodic behavior in the autocorrelation function. Our modeling approach for the hierarchical temporal structure can help us better understand the underlying mechanisms behind complex bursty dynamics showing temporal scaling behaviors.
Characterizing bursty temporal interaction patterns of temporal networks is crucial to investigate the evolution of temporal networks as well as various collective dynamics taking place in them. The temporal interaction patterns have been described by a series of interaction events or event sequences, often showing non-Poissonian or bursty nature. Such bursty event sequences can be understood not only by heterogeneous interevent times (IETs) but also by correlations between IETs. The heterogeneities of IETs have been extensively studied in recent years, while the correlations between IETs are …
Temporal correlations of time series or event sequences in natural and social phenomena have been characterized by power-law decaying autocorrelation functions with decaying exponent $γ$. Such temporal correlations can be understood in terms of power-law distributed interevent times with exponent $α$, and/or correlations between interevent times. The latter, often called correlated bursts, has recently been studied by measuring power-law distributed bursty trains with exponent $β$. A scaling relation between $α$ and $γ$ has been established for the uncorrelated interevent times, while little i…
Dynamical processes in various natural and social phenomena have been described by a series of events or event sequences showing non-Poissonian, bursty temporal patterns. Temporal correlations in such bursty time series can be understood not only by heterogeneous interevent times (IETs) but also by correlations between IETs. Modeling and simulating various dynamical processes requires us to generate event sequences with a heavy-tailed IET distribution and memory effects between IETs. For this, we propose a Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern copula-based algorithm for generating event sequences with cor…
Social activities display bursty behavior characterized by heavy-tailed inter-event time distributions. We examine the bursty behavior of airplanes' arrivals in hub airports. The analysis indicates that the air transportation system universally follows a power-law inter-arrival time distribution with an exponent $α=2.5$ and an exponential cutoff. Moreover, we investigate the mechanism of this bursty behavior by introducing a simple model to describe it. In addition, we compare the extent of the hub-and-spoke structure and the burstiness of various airline networks in the system. Remarkably, th…
The concept of temporal networks provides a framework to understand how the interaction between system components changes over time. In empirical communication data, we often detect non-Poissonian, so-called bursty behavior in the activity of nodes as well as in the interaction between nodes. However, such reconciliation between node burstiness and link burstiness cannot be explained if the interaction processes on different links are independent of each other. This is because the activity of a node is the superposition of the interaction processes on the links incident to the node and the sup…
Bursty dynamics is a common temporal property of various complex systems in Nature but it also characterises the dynamics of human actions and interactions. At the phenomenological level it is a feature of all systems that evolve heterogeneously over time by alternating between periods of low and high event frequencies. In such systems, bursts are identified as periods in which the events occur with a rapid pace within a short time-interval while these periods are separated by long periods of time with low frequency of events. As such dynamical patterns occur in a wide range of natural phenome…
We prove that complex networks of interactions have the capacity to regulate and buffer unpredictable fluctuations in production events. We show that non-bursty network-driven activation dynamics can effectively regulate the level of burstiness in the production of nodes, which can be enhanced or reduced. Burstiness can be induced even when the endogenous inter-event time distribution of nodes' production is non-bursty. We found that hubs tend to be less controllable than low degree nodes, which are more susceptible to the networked regulatory effects. Our results have important implications f…
We present in this paper the behavior of an artificial agent who is a member of a crowd. The behavior is based on the social comparison theory, as well as the trajectory mapping towards an agent's goal considering the agent's field of vision. The crowd of artificial agents were able to exhibit arching, clogging, and bursty exit rates. We were also able to observe a new phenomenon we called double arching, which happens towards the end of the simulation, and whose onset is exhibited by a "calm" density graph within the exit passage. The density graph is usually bursty at this area. Because of t…
The origin of non-Poissonian or bursty temporal patterns observed in various datasets for human social dynamics has been extensively studied, yet its understanding still remains incomplete. Considering the fact that humans are social beings, a fundamental question arises: Is the bursty human dynamics dominated by individual characteristics or by interaction between individuals? In this paper we address this question by analyzing the Wikipedia edit history to see how spontaneous individual editors are in initiating bursty periods of editing, i.e., individual-driven burstiness, and to what exten…
The advent of social media expands our ability to transmit information and connect with others instantly, which enables us to behave as "social sensors." Here, we studied concurrent bursty behavior of Twitter users during major sporting events to determine their function as social sensors. We show that the degree of concurrent bursts in tweets (posts) and retweets (re-posts) works as a strong indicator of winning or losing a game. More specifically, our simple tweet analysis of Japanese professional baseball games in 2013 revealed that social sensors can immediately react to positive and negat…
Bursty Arrivals, Smooth Sojourns: Non-Poissonian Temporal Dynamics in a Logistics Warehouse
Zaragoza Logistics Center (ZLC)（萨拉戈萨物流中心）；Institute for Biocomputation and Physics of Complex Systems (BIFI), University of Zaragoza（萨拉戈萨大学复杂系统生物计算与物理研究所）；Department of Theoretical Physics, University of Zaragoza（萨拉戈萨大学理论物理系）
To shed light on the disease localization phenomenon, we study a bursty susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model and analyze the model under the mean-field approximation. In the bursty SIS model, the infected nodes infect all their neighbors periodically, and the near-threshold steady-state prevalence is non-constant and maximized by a factor equal to the largest eigenvalue $λ_1$ of the adjacency matrix of the network. We show that the maximum near-threshold prevalence of the bursty SIS process on a localized network tends to zero even if $λ_1$ diverges in the thermodynamic limit, which in…
Data from the social-media site, Twitter, is used to study the fluctuations in tweet rates of brand names. The tweet rates are the result of a strongly correlated user behavior, which leads to bursty collective dynamics with a characteristic 1/f noise. Here we use the aggregated "user interest" in a brand name to model collective human dynamics by a stochastic differential equation with multiplicative noise. The model is supported by a detailed analysis of the tweet rate fluctuations and it reproduces both the exact bursty dynamics found in the data and the 1/f noise.
