生命早开始与我们晚到达的客观贝叶斯分析
An Objective Bayesian Analysis of Life's Early Start and Our Late Arrival
摘要：
地球上的生命出现在其可居住窗口的前五分之一，但技术文明直到最后才开花。根据早期出现来推断自然发生率的努力，由于选择效应而受挫，如果智力的进化是一个缓慢的过程，那么生命的早期开始可能只是我们存在的先决条件，而不是乐观的有用证据。在这项工作中，我们解释了这两个事件的贝叶斯框架中的年表，考虑到进化的时间尺度本身是一个未知的，需要联合推断，而不是fiducially设置扩展到以前的工作。我们进一步采用了一个客观的贝叶斯方法，这样我们的结果将同意，即使是那些使用非常不同的先验率的自然发生和进化-共同点的争论这个问题。最早的微化石证据表明，生命的发生率至少是一个典型的快速过程的2.8倍，而不是一个缓慢的。如果我们接受更有争议的C13贫化锆石矿床的证据，这个适度的限制贝叶斯因子上升到8.7（Bell等人，2015）。对于智力进化，发现稀有智力的情况在3：2的赔率下稍微有利。因此，如果我们重新运行地球的时钟，在统计上应该有利于生命频繁地重新出现，但智能可能不是必然的。
英文摘要：
Life emerged on the Earth within the first quintile of its habitable window, but a technological civilization did not blossom until its last. Efforts to infer the rate of abiogenesis, based on its early emergence, are frustrated by the selection effect that if the evolution of intelligence is a slow process, then life's early start may simply be a prerequisite to our existence, rather than useful evidence for optimism. In this work, we interpret the chronology of these two events in a Bayesian framework, extending upon previous work by considering that the evolutionary timescale is itself an unknown that needs to be jointly inferred, rather than fiducially set. We further adopt an objective Bayesian approach, such that our results would be agreed upon even by those using wildly different priors for the rates of abiogenesis and evolution - common points of contention for this problem. It is then shown that the earliest microfossil evidence for life indicates that the rate of abiogenesis is at least 2.8 times more likely to be a typically rapid process, rather than a slow one. This modest limiting Bayes factor rises to 8.7 if we accept the more disputed evidence of C13 depleted zircon deposits (Bell et al. 2015). For intelligence evolution, it is found that a rare-intelligence scenario is slightly favored at 3:2 betting odds. Thus, if we re-ran Earth's clock, one should statistically favor life to frequently re-emerge, but intelligence may not be as inevitable.
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