I find evidence for clustering in age of well-dated impact craters over the last 500 Myr. At least nine impact episodes are identified, with durations whose upper limits are set by the dating accuracy of the craters. Their amplitudes and frequency are inconsistent with an origin in asteroid breakups or Oort cloud disturbances, but are consistent with the arrival and disintegration in near-Earth orbits of rare, giant comets, mainly in transit from the Centaur population into the Jupiter family and Encke regions. About 1 in 10 Centaurs in Chiron-like orbits enter Earth-crossing epochs, usually repeatedly, each such epoch being generally of a few thousand years duration. On time-scales of geological interest, debris from their breakup may increase the mass of the near-Earth interplanetary environment by two or three orders of magnitude, yielding repeated episodes of bombardment and stratospheric dusting. I find a strong correlation between these bombardment episodes and major biostratigraphic and geological boundaries, and propose that episodes of extinction are most effectively driven by prolonged encounters with meteoroid streams during bombardment episodes. Possible mechanisms are discussed.
On 2007 October 29 the outbursting comet 17P/Holmes passed within 0.79 arcsec of a background star. We recorded the event using optical, narrowband photometry and detect a 3% to 4% dip in stellar brightness bracketing the time of closest approach to the comet nucleus. The detected dimming implies an optical depth tau~0.04 at 1.5 arcsec from the nucleus and an optical depth towards the nucleus center tau_n<13.3. At the time of our observations, the coma was optically thick only within rho<~0.01 arcsec from the nucleus. By combining the measured extinction and the scattered light from the coma w…
We reply to criticisms by Desch et al. (2021) regarding our Scientific Reports paper, "Breakup of a long-period comet as the origin of the dinosaur extinction." The background impact rates of main-belt asteroids and long-period comets have been previously dismissed as being too low to explain the Chicxulub impact event. Our work demonstrates that a fraction of long-period comets are tidally disrupted after passing close to the Sun, each producing a collection of smaller fragments that cross the orbit of Earth. This population greatly increases the impact rate of long-period comets capable of p…
The origin of the Chicxulub impactor, which is attributed as the cause of the K/T mass extinction event, is an unsolved puzzle. The background impact rates of main-belt asteroids and long-period comets have been previously dismissed as being too low to explain the Chicxulub impact event. Here, we show that a fraction of long-period comets are tidally disrupted after passing close to the Sun, each producing a collection of smaller fragments that cross the orbit of Earth. This population could increase the impact rate of long-period comets capable of producing Chicxulub impact events by an order…
The recent publication by Siraj & Loeb (2021; Nature Scientific Reports 11, 3803) attempts to revive the debate over whether the Chicxulub impactor was a comet or an asteroid. They calculate that ~20% of long-period comets impacting Earth will have first been disrupted by passage inside the Sun's Roche limit, generating thousands of fragments, each the needed size of the Chicxulub impactor. This would increase the impact rate of comets by a factor ~15, making them as likely to hit the Earth as an asteroid. They also argue that a comet would be a factor of 10 more likely to match the geochemica…
A recent paper by Siraj & Loeb (2021) entitled "Breakup of a long-period comet as the origin of the dinosaur extinction" attempts to revive the perennial debate about what type of body hit the Earth 66 million years ago, triggering the end-Cretaceous extinction. Here we critique the paper and assess the evidence it presents. To consider a comet more likely than an asteroid requires extreme assumptions about how comets fragment, conflation of carbonaceous chondrites with specific types of carbonaceous chondrites, and a blind eye to the evidence of the iridium layer.
Intersection with the debris of a large (50-100 km) short-period comet during the Upper Palaeolithic provides a satisfactory explanation for the catastrophe of celestial origin which has been postulated to have occurred around 12900 BP, and which presaged a return to ice age conditions of duration ~1300 years. The Taurid Complex appears to be the debris of this erstwhile comet; it includes at least 19 of the brightest near-Earth objects. Sub-kilometre bodies in meteor streams may present the greatest regional impact hazard on timescales of human concern.
Comets contain abundant amounts of organic and inorganic species. Many of the volatile molecules in comets have also been observed in the interstellar medium and some of them even with similar relative abundances, indicating formation under similar conditions or even sharing a common chemical pathway. There is a growing amount of evidence that suggests comets inherit and preserve substantial fractions of materials inherited from previous evolutionary phases, potentially indicating that commonplace processes occurred throughout comet-forming regions. Through impacts, part of this material has a…
Exporting terrestrial life out of the Solar System requires a process that both embeds microbes in boulders and ejects those boulders out of the Solar System. We explore the possibility that Earthgrazing long-period comets and interstellar objects could export life from Earth by collecting microbes from the atmosphere and receiving a gravitational slingshot effect from the Earth. We estimate the total number of exportation events over the lifetime of the Earth to be $\sim 1 - 10$ for long-period comets and $\sim 1 - 50$ for interstellar objects. If life existed above an altitude of 100 km, the…
Elliptical galaxies have dynamically hot ($σ_{1D}$ ~ 100 -- 300 km s$^{-1}$) populations of stars, and presumably, smaller objects like comets. Because interstellar minor bodies are moving much faster, they hit planets harder and more often than in the local Galaxy. I estimate the rates for Chicxulub-scale impacts on an Earth-size planet in elliptical galaxies as a potential habitability constraint on intelligent life. Around most stars in a normal elliptical galaxy, these planets receive only ~0.01 -- 0.1 Gyr$^{-1}$, although hazardous rates may be common in certain compact early-type galaxie…
Here, we report the detection of phosphorus and fluorine in solid particles collected from the inner coma of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko measured with the COmetary Secondary Ion Mass Analyser (COSIMA) instrument on-board the Rosetta spacecraft, only a few kilometers away from the comet nucleus. We have detected phosphorus-containing minerals from the presented COSIMA mass spectra, and can rule out e.g. apatite minerals as the source of phosphorus. This result completes the detection of life-necessary CHNOPS-elements in solid cometary matter, indicating cometary delivery as a potential sour…
Several exoplanets have been discovered to date, and the next step is the search for extraterrestrial life. However, it is difficult to estimate the number of life-bearing exoplanets because our only template is based on life on Earth. In this paper, a new approach is introduced to estimate the probability that life on Earth has survived from birth to the present based on its terrestrial extinction history. A histogram of the extinction intensity during the Phanerozoic Eon is modeled effectively with a log-normal function, supporting the idea that terrestrial extinction is a random multiplicat…
In 1980, Alvarez and colleagues proposed that, in the transition from the Cretaceous to Paleogene, a large impactor collided with Earth being the cause of the mass extinction occurred at the limit K / Pg. In 1980 there was no known impact structure, which could be responsible for this extinction. It was not until 1991 that an international group of researchers proposed that a circular structure between 180 and 200 km, buried under Tertiary deposits in the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, was the crater formed by the impact proposed by the group of Alvarez (Hildebrand et al., 1991). It is very prob…
It has recently been suggested that a gravitational transition of the effective Newton's constant $G_{\rm eff}$ by about 10%, taking place 50-150 Myrs ago, can lead to the resolution of both the Hubble crisis and the growth tension of the standard $Λ$CDM model. Hints for such an abrupt transition with weaker gravity at times before the transition, have recently been identified in Tully Fisher galactic mass-velocity data and also in Cepheid SnIa calibrator data. Here we use Monte-Carlo simulations to show that such a transition could significantly increase (by a factor of 3 or more) the number …
Two Distinct Populations of Dark Comets Delineated by Orbits and Sizes
Michigan State University（密歇根州立大学）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）；ESA NEO Coordination Centre（欧洲航天局近地天体协调中心）；European Southern Observatory（欧洲南方天文台）；Planetary Science Institute（行星科学研究所）；University of Colorado Boulder（科罗拉多大学博尔德分校）；Caltech/IPAC（加州理工学院/IPAC）；Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii（夏威夷大学天文学研究所）；University of Michigan（密歇根大学）
Thanks to the Rosetta mission, our understanding of comets has greatly improved. A very good opportunity to apply this knowledge appeared in early 2017 with the appearance of the Jupiter family comet 41P/TGK. We performed an observational campaign with the TRAPPIST telescopes that covered almost the entire period of time when the comet was active. In this work we present a comprehensive study of the evolution of the dust environment of 41P based on observational data from January to July, 2017. Also, we performed numerical simulations to constrain its origin and dynamical nature. To model the …
It has long been assumed that the planet Jupiter acts as a giant shield, significantly lowering the impact rate of small bodies on the Earth. However, until recently, very little work had been carried out examining the role played by Jupiter in determining the frequency of such collisions. In this work, the third of a series of papers, we examine the degree to which the impact rate on Earth resulting from the Oort cloud comets is enhanced or lessened by the presence of a giant planet in a Jupiter-like orbit, in an attempt to more fully understand the impact regime under which life on Earth has…
Over 200 molecules have been detected in multiple extraterrestrial environments, including glycolaldehyde (C2(H2O)2, GLA), a two-carbon sugar precursor that has been detected in regions of the interstellar medium. Its recent in situ detection on the nucleus of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko and via remote observations in the comae of others, provides tantalizing evidence that it is common on most (if not all) comets. Impact experiments conducted at the Experimental Impact Laboratory at NASA's Johnson Space Center have shown that samples of GLA and GLA mixed with montmorillonite clays can surv…
A nearby supernova (SN) explosion could have negatively influenced life on Earth, maybe even been responsible for mass extinctions. Mass extinction poses a significant extinction of numerous species on Earth, as recorded in the paleontologic, paleoclimatic, and geological record of our planet. Depending on the distance between the Sun and the SN, different types of threats have to be considered, such as ozone depletion on Earth, causing increased exposure to the Sun's ultraviolet radiation, or the direct exposure of lethal x-rays. Another indirect effect is cloud formation, induced by cosmic r…
Comets hold answers to mysteries of the Solar System by recording presolar history, the initial states of planet formation and prebiotic organics and volatiles to the early Earth. Analysis of returned samples from a comet nucleus will provide unparalleled knowledge about the Solar System starting materials and how they came together to form planets and give rise to life: 1. How did comets form? 2. Is comet material primordial, or has it undergone a complex alteration history? 3. Does aqueous alteration occur in comets? 4. What is the composition of cometary organics? 5. Did comets supply a sub…
Cometary impacts pose a long-term hazard to life on Earth. Impact mitigation techniques have been studied extensively, but they tend to focus on asteroid diversion. Typical asteroid interdiction schemes involve spacecraft physically intercepting the target, a task feasible only for targets identified decades in advance and in a narrow range of orbits---criteria unlikely to be satisfied by a threatening comet. Comets, however, are naturally perturbed from purely gravitational trajectories through solar heating of their surfaces which activates sublimation-driven jets. Artificial heating of a co…
Do mass extinctions affect the development of intelligence? If so, we may expect to be in a universe that is exceptionally placid. We consider the effects of impacts, supervolcanoes, global glaciations, and nearby gamma ray bursts, and how their rates depend on fundamental constants. It is interesting that despite the very disparate nature of these processes, each occurs on timescales of 100 Myr-Gyr. We argue that this is due to a selection effect that favors both tranquil locales within our universe, as well as tranquil universes. Taking gamma ray bursts to be the sole driver of mass extincti…
The TRAPPIST-1 system is unique in that it has a chain of seven terrestrial Earth-like planets located close to or in its habitable zone. In this paper, we study the effect of potential cometary impacts on the TRAPPIST-1 planets and how they would affect the primordial atmospheres of these planets. We consider both atmospheric mass loss and volatile delivery with a view to assessing whether any sort of life has a chance to develop. We ran N-body simulations to investigate the orbital evolution of potential impacting comets, to determine which planets are more likely to be impacted and the dist…
Active comets have been detected in several exoplanetary systems, although so far only indirectly, when the dust or gas in the extended coma has transited in front of the stellar disk. The large optical surface and relatively high temperature of an active cometary coma also makes it suitable to study with direct imaging, but the angular separation is generally too small to be reachable with present-day facilities. However, future imaging facilities with the ability to detect terrestrial planets in the habitable zones of nearby systems will also be sensitive to exocomets in such systems. Here w…
As a copious source of gamma-rays, a nearby Galactic Gamma-Ray Burst (GRB) can be a threat to life. Using recent determinations of the rate of GRBs, their luminosity function and properties of their host galaxies, we estimate the probability that a life-threatening (lethal) GRB would take place. Amongst the different kinds of GRBs, long ones are most dangerous. There is a very good chance (but no certainty) that at least one lethal GRB took place during the past 5 Gyr close enough to Earth as to significantly damage life. There is a 50% chance that such a lethal GRB took place during the last …
To characterize the meteoroid environment around Mercury and its contribution to the planet's exosphere, we combined four distinctive sources of meteoroids in the solar system: main-belt asteroids, Jupiter family comets, Halley-type comets, and Oort Cloud comets. All meteoroid populations are described by currently available dynamical models. We used a recent calibration of the meteoroid influx onto Earth as a constraint for the combined population model on Mercury. We predict vastly different distributions of orbital elements, impact velocities and directions of arrival for all four meteoroid…
It has long been assumed that the planet Jupiter acts as a giant shield, significantly lowering the impact rate of minor bodies upon the Earth, and thus enabling the development and evolution of life in a collisional environment which is not overly hostile. However, in the past, little work has been carried out to examine the validity of this idea. In the second of a series of papers, we examine the degree to which the impact risk resulting from objects on Centaur-like orbits is affected by the presence of a giant planet, in a continuing attempt to fully understand the impact regime under whic…
Exoplanets orbiting close to their parent stars could lose some fraction of their atmospheres because of the extreme irradiation. Atmospheric mass loss primarily affects low-mass exoplanets, leading to suggest that hot rocky planets might have begun as Neptune-like, but subsequently lost all of their atmospheres; however, no confident measurements have hitherto been available. The signature of this loss could be observed in the ultraviolet spectrum, when the planet and its escaping atmosphere transit the star, giving rise to deeper and longer transit signatures than in the optical spectrum. He…
The probability is investigated that the meteorites originating on Earth are transferred to other planets in our Solar System and to extra solar planets. We take the collisional Chicxulub crater event, and material that was ejected as an example of Earth-origin meteors. If we assume the appropriate size of the meteorites as 1cm in diameter, the number of meteorites to reach the exoplanet system (further than 20 ly) would be much greater than one. We have followed the ejection and capture rates estimated by Melosh (2003) and the discussion by Wallis and Wickramasinghe (2004). If we consider the…
The evolution of life has been a big enigma despite rapid advancements in the fields of biochemistry, astrobiology, and astrophysics in recent years. The answer to this puzzle has been as mind-boggling as the riddle relating to evolution of Universe itself. Despite the fact that panspermia has gained considerable support as a viable explanation for origin of life on the Earth and elsewhere in the Universe, the issue remains far from a tangible solution. This paper examines the various prevailing hypotheses regarding origin of life like abiogenesis, RNA World, Iron-sulphur World, and panspermia…
This thesis assesses the influence of astronomical phenomena on the Earth's biosphere and climate. I examine in particular the relevance of both the path of the Sun through the Galaxy and the evolution of the Earth's orbital parameters in modulating non-terrestrial mechanisms. I build models to predict the extinction rate of species, the temporal variation of the impact cratering rate and ice sheet deglaciations, and then compare these models with other models within a Bayesian framework. I find that the temporal distribution of mass extinction events over the past 550 Myr can be explained jus…
Numerous studies over the past 30 years have suggested there is a causal connection between the motion of the Sun through the Galaxy and terrestrial mass extinctions or climate change. Proposed mechanisms include comet impacts (via perturbation of the Oort cloud), cosmic rays and supernovae, the effects of which are modulated by the passage of the Sun through the Galactic midplane or spiral arms. Supposed periodicities in the fossil record, impact cratering dates or climate proxies over the Phanerozoic (past 545 Myr) are frequently cited as evidence in support of these hypotheses. This remains…
We discuss a hypothetical existential threat from a 10 km diameter bolide discovered 6 months prior to impact with one case being a comet and the other being an asteroid. We show that an extension of our work on bolide fragmentation using an array of penetrators but modified with small nuclear explosive devices (NED) in the penetrators, combined with soon-to-be-realized heavy lift launch assets with positive $C_3$ such as NASA SLS or SpaceX Starship (with in-orbit refueling) is sufficient to mitigate this existential threat. A threat of this magnitude hitting the Earth at a closing speed of 40…
