通过为模拟模型创建保证案例来增强Covid-19决策
Enhancing Covid-19 Decision-Making by Creating an Assurance Case for Simulation Models
摘要：
模拟模型一直在为COVID-19政策制定过程提供信息。因此，这些模型对社会危害的风险有重大影响。但是，基本的建模假设和局限性传达得有多清楚，以便决策者能够容易地理解它们？当对安全关键系统的风险提出索赔时，通常的做法是提出保证案例，这是一个由证据支持的结构化论点，旨在评估我们对基于风险的决策的信心。我们认为，任何用于指导关键政策决策的COVID-19模拟模型都将受益于这样一个案例的支持，以解释如何以及在多大程度上可以依赖模拟证据来证实政策结论。这将使人们能够对模型中隐含的假设和固有的不确定性进行严格审查，并使整个决策过程具有更大的透明度和问责制。
英文摘要：
Simulation models have been informing the COVID-19 policy-making process. These models, therefore, have significant influence on risk of societal harms. But how clearly are the underlying modelling assumptions and limitations communicated so that decision-makers can readily understand them? When making claims about risk in safety-critical systems, it is common practice to produce an assurance case, which is a structured argument supported by evidence with the aim to assess how confident we should be in our risk-based decisions. We argue that any COVID-19 simulation model that is used to guide critical policy decisions would benefit from being supported with such a case to explain how, and to what extent, the evidence from the simulation can be relied on to substantiate policy conclusions. This would enable a critical review of the implicit assumptions and inherent uncertainty in modelling, and would give the overall decision-making process greater transparency and accountability.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
