Optimal Trade-Off Between Economic Activity and Health During an Epidemic

Nash SIR: An Economic-Epidemiological Model of Strategic Behavior During a Viral Epidemic

This paper develops a Nash-equilibrium extension of the classic SIR model of infectious-disease epidemiology ("Nash SIR"), endogenizing people's decisions whether to engage in economic activity during a viral epidemic and allowing for complementarity in social-economic activity. An equilibrium epidemic is one in which Nash equilibrium behavior during the epidemic generates the epidemic. There may be multiple equilibrium epidemics, in which case the epidemic trajectory can be shaped through the coordination of expectations, in addition to other sorts of interventions such as stay-at-home orders…

Verification Results for Age-Structured Models of Economic-Epidemics Dynamics

In this paper we propose a macro-dynamic age-structured set-up for the analysis of epidemics/economic dynamics in continuous time. The resulting optimal control problem is reformulated in an infinite dimensional Hilbert space framework where we perform the basic steps of dynamic programming approach. Our main result is a verification theorem which allows to guess the feedback form of optimal strategies. This will be a departure point to discuss the behavior of the models of the family we introduce and their policy implications.

Optimal epidemic suppression under an ICU constraint

How much and when should we limit economic and social activity to ensure that the health-care system is not overwhelmed during an epidemic? We study a setting where ICU resources are constrained while suppression is costly (e.g., limiting economic interaction). Providing a fully analytical solution we show that the common wisdom of "flattening the curve", where suppression measures are continuously taken to hold down the spread throughout the epidemic, is suboptimal. Instead, the optimal suppression is discontinuous. The epidemic should be left unregulated in a first phase and when the ICU con…

流动性决策、经济动态与流行病

Mobility decisions, economic dynamics and epidemic

本文构建了嵌入SIRD流行病模型的宏观动态均衡框架，分析个体流动性决策对经济与疫情的双向影响，通过平均场博弈证明均衡存在并基于意大利疫情校准，提出政策启示。

The economics of stop-and-go epidemic control

We analyse 'stop-and-go' containment policies that produce infection cycles as periods of tight lockdowns are followed by periods of falling infection rates. The subsequent relaxation of containment measures allows cases to increase again until another lockdown is imposed and the cycle repeats. The policies followed by several European countries during the Covid-19 pandemic seem to fit this pattern. We show that 'stop-and-go' should lead to lower medical costs than keeping infections at the midpoint between the highs and lows produced by 'stop-and-go'. Increasing the upper and reducing the low…

健康投资、环境与人口动态

Health Investment, Environment, and Population Dynamics

本文开发一套宏观经济模型，将健康视为中间品，阐释经济发展、健康与生育的复杂关系，解释健康对经济和人口增长的非单调效应及人类发展早期三者的动态相互作用。