arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2005.03223math.STstat.TH
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动态统计流形学习

Learning on dynamic statistical manifolds

Francesca Boso, Daniel M. Tartakovsky

摘要:

具有不确定(随机)参数和输入的双曲平衡律在科学和工程中普遍存在。量化从这些法律得出的预测的不确定性,并通过数据同化减少预测的不确定性,仍然是一个公开的挑战。这是由于控制方程的非线性,其解是高度非高斯的,往往是不连续的。为了改善这些问题的计算效率的方式,我们使用的方法的分布,在这里采取的形式的确定性方程的时空演变的累积分布函数(CDF)的随机系统状态,作为一种手段向前的不确定性传播。不确定性的降低是通过重铸标准损失函数来实现的,即,观察结果和模型预测之间的差异,在分布方面。该步骤利用平方误差差异的最小化与Kullback-Leibler发散之间的等价性。损失函数通过添加拉格朗日约束来正则化,从而强制实现CDF方程。最小化是按顺序进行的,随着更多的测量被同化,逐渐更新CDF方程的参数。

英文摘要:

Hyperbolic balance laws with uncertain (random) parameters and inputs are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Quantification of uncertainty in predictions derived from such laws, and reduction of predictive uncertainty via data assimilation, remain an open challenge. That is due to nonlinearity of governing equations, whose solutions are highly non-Gaussian and often discontinuous. To ameliorate these issues in a computationally efficient way, we use the method of distributions, which here takes the form of a deterministic equation for spatiotemporal evolution of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the random system state, as a means of forward uncertainty propagation. Uncertainty reduction is achieved by recasting the standard loss function, i.e., discrepancy between observations and model predictions, in distributional terms. This step exploits the equivalence between minimization of the square error discrepancy and the Kullback-Leibler divergence. The loss function is regularized by adding a Lagrangian constraint enforcing fulfillment of the CDF equation. Minimization is performed sequentially, progressively updating the parameters of the CDF equation as more measurements are assimilated.

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