We introduce SIRUS (Stable and Interpretable RUle Set) for regression, a stable rule learning algorithm which takes the form of a short and simple list of rules. State-of-the-art learning algorithms are often referred to as "black boxes" because of the high number of operations involved in their prediction process. Despite their powerful predictivity, this lack of interpretability may be highly restrictive for applications with critical decisions at stake. On the other hand, algorithms with a simple structure-typically decision trees, rule algorithms, or sparse linear models-are well known for their instability. This undesirable feature makes the conclusions of the data analysis unreliable and turns out to be a strong operational limitation. This motivates the design of SIRUS, which combines a simple structure with a remarkable stable behavior when data is perturbed. The algorithm is based on random forests, the predictive accuracy of which is preserved. We demonstrate the efficiency of the method both empirically (through experiments) and theoretically (with the proof of its asymptotic stability). Our R/C++ software implementation sirus is available from CRAN.
Anomaly Detection is an unsupervised learning task aimed at detecting anomalous behaviours with respect to historical data. In particular, multivariate Anomaly Detection has an important role in many applications thanks to the capability of summarizing the status of a complex system or observed phenomenon with a single indicator (typically called `Anomaly Score') and thanks to the unsupervised nature of the task that does not require human tagging. The Isolation Forest is one of the most commonly adopted algorithms in the field of Anomaly Detection, due to its proven effectiveness and low comp…
An important issue when using Machine Learning algorithms in recent research is the lack of interpretability. Although these algorithms provide accurate point predictions for various learning problems, uncertainty estimates connected with point predictions are rather sparse. A contribution to this gap for the Random Forest Regression Learner is presented here. Based on its Out-of-Bag procedure, several parametric and non-parametric prediction intervals are provided for Random Forest point predictions and theoretical guarantees for its correct coverage probability is delivered. In a second part…
Random forest is a popular prediction approach for handling high dimensional covariates. However, it often becomes infeasible to interpret the obtained high dimensional and non-parametric model. Aiming for obtaining an interpretable predictive model, we develop a forward variable selection method using the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as the loss function. Our stepwise procedure leads to a smallest set of variables that optimizes the CRPS risk by performing at each step a hypothesis test on a significant decrease in CRPS risk. We provide mathematical motivation for our method by …
State-of-the-art learning algorithms, such as random forests or neural networks, are often qualified as "black-boxes" because of the high number and complexity of operations involved in their prediction mechanism. This lack of interpretability is a strong limitation for applications involving critical decisions, typically the analysis of production processes in the manufacturing industry. In such critical contexts, models have to be interpretable, i.e., simple, stable, and predictive. To address this issue, we design SIRUS (Stable and Interpretable RUle Set), a new classification algorithm bas…
We use the output of a random forest to define a family of local smoothers with spatially adaptive bandwidth matrices. The smoother inherits the flexibility of the original forest but, since it is a simple, linear smoother, it is very interpretable and it can be used for tasks that would be intractable for the original forest. This includes bias correction, confidence intervals, assessing variable importance and methods for exploring the structure of the forest. We illustrate the method on some synthetic examples and on data related to Covid-19.
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory（SLAC国家加速器实验室）
Many practical combustion systems such as those in rockets, gas turbines, and internal combustion engines operate under high pressures that surpass the thermodynamic critical limit of fuel-oxidizer mixtures. These conditions require the consideration of complex fluid behaviors that pose challenges for numerical simulations, casting doubts on the validity of existing subgrid-scale (SGS) models in large-eddy simulations of these systems. While data-driven methods have shown high accuracy as closure models in simulations of turbulent flames, these models are often criticized for lack of physical …
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology（加州理工学院喷气推进实验室）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
Have you ever wondered how your feature space is impacting the prediction of a specific sample in your dataset? In this paper, we introduce Single Sample Feature Importance (SSFI), which is an interpretable feature importance algorithm that allows for the identification of the most important features that contribute to the prediction of a single sample. When a dataset can be learned by a Random Forest classifier or regressor, SSFI shows how the Random Forest's prediction path can be utilized for low-level feature importance calculation. SSFI results in a relative ranking of features, highlight…
Signed iterative random forests to identify enhancer-associated transcription factor binding
University of California, San Francisco（加州大学旧金山分校）；Cornell University（康奈尔大学）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）
Tree ensembles such as random forests and boosted trees are accurate but difficult to understand, debug and deploy. In this work, we provide the inTrees (interpretable trees) framework that extracts, measures, prunes and selects rules from a tree ensemble, and calculates frequent variable interactions. An rule-based learner, referred to as the simplified tree ensemble learner (STEL), can also be formed and used for future prediction. The inTrees framework can applied to both classification and regression problems, and is applicable to many types of tree ensembles, e.g., random forests, regular…
The ability to interpret machine learning models has become increasingly important now that machine learning is used to inform consequential decisions. We propose an approach called model extraction for interpreting complex, blackbox models. Our approach approximates the complex model using a much more interpretable model; as long as the approximation quality is good, then statistical properties of the complex model are reflected in the interpretable model. We show how model extraction can be used to understand and debug random forests and neural nets trained on several datasets from the UCI M…
Supervised Machine Learning (SML) algorithms, such as Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Neural Networks, have become popular in recent years due to their superior predictive performance over traditional statistical methods. However, their complexity makes the results hard to interpret without additional tools. There has been a lot of recent work in developing global and local diagnostics for interpreting SML models. In this paper, we propose a locally-interpretable model that takes the fitted ML response surface, partitions the predictor space using model-based regression trees, and fits i…
Aristotle University of Thessaloniki（塞萨洛尼基亚里士多德大学）
Towards a future where machine learning systems will integrate into every aspect of people's lives, researching methods to interpret such systems is necessary, instead of focusing exclusively on enhancing their performance. Enriching the trust between these systems and people will accelerate this integration process. Many medical and retail banking/finance applications use state-of-the-art machine learning techniques to predict certain aspects of new instances. Tree ensembles, like random forests, are widely acceptable solutions on these tasks, while at the same time they are avoided due to th…
Tree ensembles, such as random forest and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance, whereas their interpretability is critically limited. In this paper, we propose a post processing method that improves the model interpretability of tree ensembles. After learning a complex tree ensembles in a standard way, we approximate it by a simpler model that is interpretable for human. To obtain the simpler model, we derive the EM algorithm minimizing the KL divergence from the complex ensemble. A synthetic experiment showed that a complicated tree ensemble was approximated reaso…
Random forests are ensemble methods which grow trees as base learners and combine their predictions by averaging. Random forests are known for their good practical performance, particularly in high dimensional set-tings. On the theoretical side, several studies highlight the potentially fruitful connection between random forests and kernel methods. In this paper, we work out in full details this connection. In particular, we show that by slightly modifying their definition, random forests can be rewrit-ten as kernel methods (called KeRF for Kernel based on Random Forests) which are more interp…
The Use of Binary Choice Forests to Model and Estimate Discrete Choices
Rotman School of Management, University of Toronto（多伦多大学罗特曼管理学院）；School of Data Science, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳）数据科学学院）；Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University（上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院）
I develop Macroeconomic Random Forest (MRF), an algorithm adapting the canonical Machine Learning (ML) tool to flexibly model evolving parameters in a linear macro equation. Its main output, Generalized Time-Varying Parameters (GTVPs), is a versatile device nesting many popular nonlinearities (threshold/switching, smooth transition, structural breaks/change) and allowing for sophisticated new ones. The approach delivers clear forecasting gains over numerous alternatives, predicts the 2008 drastic rise in unemployment, and performs well for inflation. Unlike most ML-based methods, MRF is direct…
This work presents a new classifier that is specifically designed to be fully interpretable. This technique determines the probability of a class outcome, based directly on probability assignments measured from the training data. The accuracy of the predicted probability can be improved by measuring more probability estimates from the training data to create a series expansion that refines the predicted probability. We use this work to classify four standard datasets and achieve accuracies comparable to that of Random Forests. Because this technique is interpretable by design, it is capable of…
Booz Allen Hamilton, Strategic Innovation Group（博思艾伦咨询公司战略创新集团）；University of Maryland, Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩县分校）
The potential lack of fairness in the outputs of machine learning algorithms has recently gained attention both within the research community as well as in society more broadly. Surprisingly, there is no prior work developing tree-induction algorithms for building fair decision trees or fair random forests. These methods have widespread popularity as they are one of the few to be simultaneously interpretable, non-linear, and easy-to-use. In this paper we develop, to our knowledge, the first technique for the induction of fair decision trees. We show that our "Fair Forest" retains the benefits …
Supervised Machine Learning (SML) algorithms such as Gradient Boosting, Random Forest, and Neural Networks have become popular in recent years due to their increased predictive performance over traditional statistical methods. This is especially true with large data sets (millions or more observations and hundreds to thousands of predictors). However, the complexity of the SML models makes them opaque and hard to interpret without additional tools. There has been a lot of interest recently in developing global and local diagnostics for interpreting and explaining SML models. In this paper, we …
A new ensemble framework for interpretable model called Linear Iterative Feature Embedding (LIFE) has been developed to achieve high prediction accuracy, easy interpretation and efficient computation simultaneously. The LIFE algorithm is able to fit a wide single-hidden-layer neural network (NN) accurately with three steps: defining the subsets of a dataset by the linear projections of neural nodes, creating the features from multiple narrow single-hidden-layer NNs trained on the different subsets of the data, combining the features with a linear model. The theoretical rationale behind LIFE is…
Ensembles of decision trees perform well on many problems, but are not interpretable. In contrast to existing approaches in interpretability that focus on explaining relationships between features and predictions, we propose an alternative approach to interpret tree ensemble classifiers by surfacing representative points for each class -- prototypes. We introduce a new distance for Gradient Boosted Tree models, and propose new, adaptive prototype selection methods with theoretical guarantees, with the flexibility to choose a different number of prototypes in each class. We demonstrate our meth…
To reduce human error and prejudice, many high-stakes decisions have been turned over to machine algorithms. However, recent research suggests that this does not remove discrimination, and can perpetuate harmful stereotypes. While algorithms have been developed to improve fairness, they typically face at least one of three shortcomings: they are not interpretable, their prediction quality deteriorates quickly compared to unbiased equivalents, and they are not easily transferable across models. To address these shortcomings, we propose a geometric method that removes correlations between data a…
CoreML Group Apple Inc.（苹果公司CoreML团队）；Department of Mathematics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学数学系）；Department of Statistics Florida State University（佛罗里达州立大学统计系）
Tree ensembles are flexible predictive models that can capture relevant variables and to some extent their interactions in a compact and interpretable manner. Most algorithms for obtaining tree ensembles are based on versions of boosting or Random Forest. Previous work showed that boosting algorithms exhibit a cyclic behavior of selecting the same tree again and again due to the way the loss is optimized. At the same time, Random Forest is not based on loss optimization and obtains a more complex and less interpretable model. In this paper we present a novel method for obtaining compact tree e…
We introduce random survival forests, a random forests method for the analysis of right-censored survival data. New survival splitting rules for growing survival trees are introduced, as is a new missing data algorithm for imputing missing data. A conservation-of-events principle for survival forests is introduced and used to define ensemble mortality, a simple interpretable measure of mortality that can be used as a predicted outcome. Several illustrative examples are given, including a case study of the prognostic implications of body mass for individuals with coronary artery disease. Comput…
Electromyography signals can be used as training data by machine learning models to classify various gestures. We seek to produce a model that can classify six different hand gestures with a limited number of samples that generalizes well to a wider audience while comparing the effect of our feature extraction results on model accuracy to other more conventional methods such as the use of AR parameters on a sliding window across the channels of a signal. We appeal to a set of more elementary methods such as the use of random bounds on a signal, but desire to show the power these methods can ca…
Tree ensemble methods such as random forests [Breiman, 2001] are very popular to handle high-dimensional tabular data sets, notably because of their good predictive accuracy. However, when machine learning is used for decision-making problems, settling for the best predictive procedures may not be reasonable since enlightened decisions require an in-depth comprehension of the algorithm prediction process. Unfortunately, random forests are not intrinsically interpretable since their prediction results from averaging several hundreds of decision trees. A classic approach to gain knowledge on thi…
Faculty of Engineering, University of Rijeka（里耶卡大学工程学院）；Center for Advanced Computing and Modelling, University of Rijeka（里耶卡大学高级计算与建模中心）
In this paper, negatively inclined buoyant jets, which appear during the discharge of wastewater from processes such as desalination, are observed. To minimize harmful effects and assess environmental impact, a detailed numerical investigation is necessary. The selection of appropriate geometry and working conditions for minimizing such effects often requires numerous experiments and numerical simulations. For this reason, the application of machine learning models is proposed. Several models including Support Vector Regression, Artificial Neural Networks, Random Forests, XGBoost, CatBoost and…
University of Warwick（华威大学）；University of Cambridge（剑桥大学）；Amazon（亚马逊）
Anomaly detection at scale is an extremely challenging problem of great practicality. When data is large and high-dimensional, it can be difficult to detect which observations do not fit the expected behaviour. Recent work has coalesced on variations of (random) $k$\emph{d-trees} to summarise data for anomaly detection. However, these methods rely on ad-hoc score functions that are not easy to interpret, making it difficult to asses the severity of the detected anomalies or select a reasonable threshold in the absence of labelled anomalies. To solve these issues, we contextualise these methods…
The distribution of data points is a key component in machine learning. In most cases, one uses min-max normalization to obtain nodes in $[0,1]$ or Z-score normalization for standard normal distributed data. In this paper, we apply transformation ideas in order to design a complete orthonormal system in the $\mathrm{L}_2$ space of functions with the standard normal distribution as integration weight. Subsequently, we are able to apply the explainable ANOVA approximation for this basis and use Z-score transformed data in the method. We demonstrate the applicability of this procedure on the well…
Function Based Isolation Forest (FuBIF): A Unifying Framework for Interpretable Isolation-Based Anomaly Detection
Brain, Mind and Computer Science, University of Padova, Italy（脑科学与计算机科学系，帕多瓦大学，意大利）；Department of Mathematics, Sapienza University of Roma, Italy（数学系，罗马萨皮恩扎大学，意大利）；Department of Information Engineering, University of Padova, Italy（信息工程系，帕多瓦大学，意大利）
It is becoming increasingly important for machine learning methods to make predictions that are interpretable as well as accurate. In many practical applications, it is of interest which features and feature interactions are relevant to the prediction task. We present a novel method, Selective Bayesian Forest Classifier, that strikes a balance between predictive power and interpretability by simultaneously performing classification, feature selection, feature interaction detection and visualization. It builds parsimonious yet flexible models using tree-structured Bayesian networks, and samples…
Hybrid Gaussian Process Regression with Temporal Feature Extraction for Partially Interpretable Remaining Useful Life Interval Prediction in Aeroengine Prognostics
Ghent University - imec, IDLab（根特大学 - imec, IDLab）
Models obtained by decision tree induction techniques excel in being interpretable.However, they can be prone to overfitting, which results in a low predictive performance. Ensemble techniques are able to achieve a higher accuracy. However, this comes at a cost of losing interpretability of the resulting model. This makes ensemble techniques impractical in applications where decision support, instead of decision making, is crucial. To bridge this gap, we present the GENESIM algorithm that transforms an ensemble of decision trees to a single decision tree with an enhanced predictive performance…
Aix-Marseille University（艾克斯-马赛大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；EHESS（社会科学高等学院）；Aix-Marseille Graduate School of Management – IAE（艾克斯-马赛管理学院-IAE）
Despite their high predictive performance, random forest and gradient boosting are often considered as black boxes or uninterpretable models which has raised concerns from practitioners and regulators. As an alternative, we propose in this paper to use partial linear models that are inherently interpretable. Specifically, this article introduces GAM-lasso (GAMLA) and GAM-autometrics (GAMA), denoted as GAM(L)A in short. GAM(L)A combines parametric and non-parametric functions to accurately capture linearities and non-linearities prevailing between dependent and explanatory variables, and a vari…
The oblique random survival forest (RSF) is an ensemble supervised learning method for right-censored outcomes. Trees in the oblique RSF are grown using linear combinations of predictors to create branches, whereas in the standard RSF, a single predictor is used. Oblique RSF ensembles often have higher prediction accuracy than standard RSF ensembles. However, assessing all possible linear combinations of predictors induces significant computational overhead that limits applications to large-scale data sets. In addition, few methods have been developed for interpretation of oblique RSF ensemble…
Warsaw University of Technology（华沙理工大学）；University of Warsaw（华沙大学）
Complex black-box predictive models may have high accuracy, but opacity causes problems like lack of trust, lack of stability, sensitivity to concept drift. On the other hand, interpretable models require more work related to feature engineering, which is very time consuming. Can we train interpretable and accurate models, without timeless feature engineering? In this article, we show a method that uses elastic black-boxes as surrogate models to create a simpler, less opaque, yet still accurate and interpretable glass-box models. New models are created on newly engineered features extracted/le…
Axis-aligned decision forests have long been the leading class of machine learning algorithms for modeling tabular data. In many applications of machine learning such as learning-to-rank, decision forests deliver remarkable performance. They also possess other coveted characteristics such as interpretability. Despite their widespread use and rich history, decision forests to date fail to consume raw structured data such as text, or learn effective representations for them, a factor behind the success of deep neural networks in recent years. While there exist methods that construct smoothed dec…
Tree ensembles, such as random forests and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance. However, their interpretability is critically limited due to the enormous complexity. In this study, we present a method to make a complex tree ensemble interpretable by simplifying the model. Specifically, we formalize the simplification of tree ensembles as a model selection problem. Given a complex tree ensemble, we aim at obtaining the simplest representation that is essentially equivalent to the original one. To this end, we derive a Bayesian model selection algorithm that optimiz…
PHLP: Sole Persistent Homology for Link Prediction - Interpretable Feature Extraction
Department of Mathematics, Pohang University of Science and Technology (POSTECH)（数学系，浦项科学技术大学）；Graduate School of Artificial Intelligence, POSTECH（人工智能研究生院，浦项科学技术大学）
