航空业防止与太阳质子事件有关的潜在辐射照射的替代航空计划的成本估算
Cost estimation for alternative aviation plans against potential radiation exposure associated with solar proton events for the airline industry
摘要：
我们提出了一个系统的方法来有效地评估潜在的风险成本暴露于太阳质子事件（SPE）从太阳耀斑的航空业。我们还评估了辐射带来的相关健康风险，以提供相关的替代方法，最大限度地减少经济损失和机会。使用ExoKyoto和PHITS计算每个SPE对每个航班乘客引起的估计辐射剂量。我们确定了几个方案的估计剂量限值在1和20 mSv，相应的有效剂量限值为一般公众和职业暴露，分别，以及更高的剂量引起的极端超耀斑。由于潜在辐射剂量的法律限制，我们设定了一个假设的航空公司关闭场景，每个乘客的单次航班为1 mSv。在这种情况下，我们计算航班取消的直接和机会成本的潜在损失。与此同时，我们认为，即使在这种情况下，如果飞机在稍低的高度飞行（从12到9.5公里：大气层深度从234到365 g/cm $^{2}$），总损失也会比航班取消小得多，估计的总剂量从1.2下降到0.45 mSv，低于公众的有效剂量限值。如果在更低的高度（7公里：大气层深度484 g/cm $^{2}$）飞行，估计的总剂量会小得多，为0.12 mSv。如果我们假设燃料成本的增加与大气层深度的增加成比例，则在9.5公里和7公里飞行的情况下，成本的增加分别为1.56和2.07。较低高度的飞行为严重SPE诱发的辐射剂量的潜在风险提供了更大的安全性。同时，由于航班取消会造成全部损失，我们建议考虑降低飞行高度是抵御太阳耀斑的最佳保护措施。
英文摘要：
We present a systematic approach to effectively evaluate potential risk cost caused by exposure to solar proton events (SPEs) from solar flares for the airline industry. We also evaluate associated health risks from radiation, to provide relevant alternative ways to minimize economic loss and opportunity. The estimated radiation dose induced by each SPE for the passengers of each flight is calculated using ExoKyoto and PHITS. We determine a few scenarios for the estimated dose limit at 1 and 20mSv, corresponding to the effective dose limit for the general public and occupational exposure, respectively, as well as a higher dose induced an extreme superflare. We set a hypothetical airline shutdown scenario at 1mSv for a single flight per passenger, due to legal restrictions under the potential radiation dose. In such a scenario, we calculate the potential loss in direct and opportunity cost under the cancelation of the flight. At the same time, we considered that, even under such a scenario, if the airplane flies at a slightly lower altitude (from 12 to 9.5km: atmospheric depth from 234 to 365g/cm$^{2}$), the total loss becomes much smaller than flight cancelation, and the estimated total dose goes down from 1.2 to 0.45mSv, which is below the effective dose limit for the general public. In case of flying at an even lower altitude (7km: atmospheric depth 484g/cm$^{2}$), the estimated total dose becomes much smaller, 0.12 mSv. If we assume the increase of fuel cost is proportional to the increase in atmospheric depth, the increase in cost becomes 1.56 and 2.07 for the case of flying at 9.5 km and at 7 km, respectively. Lower altitude flights provide more safety for the potential risk of radiation doses induced by severe SPEs. At the same time, since there is total loss caused by flight cancelation, we propose that considering lower flight altitude is the best protection against solar flares.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
