后COVID-19时代全球航空网络的情景分析
Scenarios for a post-COVID-19 world airline network
AI总结：
本研究构建航空公司共享航段的连接网络，分析COVID-19后需求下降对航空业的差异化影响，发现竞争结构会削弱全球航空网络的危机鲁棒性，需求恢复至60%时仍有近半数企业客流减半。
摘要：
航空业受到COVID-19危机的严重冲击，需求平均下降约64%（国际航空运输协会IATA，2020年4月），这已引发全球多家航空公司破产。此前全球航空网络（WAN）的鲁棒性大多被当作同质网络开展研究，我们为此引入一种分析航空公司倒闭影响的新工具：“航空公司网络”——若两家航空公司至少共享一条航段，则二者之间存在连接。借助该工具我们观察到，与其他航空公司连接紧密的企业一旦倒闭，对全球航空网络连通性的影响最大。我们随后探究了全球需求下降对航空公司的差异化影响，并分析了需求持续低迷、无法恢复至危机前水平的不同情景。利用官方航空指南（OAG）的流量数据，以及关于消费者航空公司选择策略的简单假设，我们发现局部有效需求可能远低于平均需求，尤其是那些不具备垄断地位、且与规模更大的公司共享航段的企业。即便平均需求恢复至总运力的60%，我们发现仍有46%至59%的公司可能面临客流量下降超50%的情况，具体比例取决于驱动消费者选择航空公司的竞争优势类型。这些结果凸显出，全球航空网络复杂的竞争结构会在面临此类大规模危机时削弱其鲁棒性。
英文摘要：
The airline industry was severely hit by the COVID-19 crisis with an average demand decrease of about $64\%$ (IATA, April 2020) which triggered already several bankruptcies of airline companies all over the world. While the robustness of the world airline network (WAN) was mostly studied as an homogeneous network, we introduce a new tool for analyzing the impact of a company failure: the `airline company network' where two airlines are connected if they share at least one route segment. Using this tool, we observe that the failure of companies well connected with others has the largest impact on the connectivity of the WAN. We then explore how the global demand reduction affects airlines differently, and provide an analysis of different scenarios if its stays low and does not come back to its pre-crisis level. Using traffic data from the Official Aviation Guide (OAG) and simple assumptions about customer's airline choice strategies, we find that the local effective demand can be much lower than the average one, especially for companies that are not monopolistic and share their segments with larger companies. Even if the average demand comes back to $60\%$ of the total capacity, we find that between $46\%$ and $59\%$ of the companies could experience a reduction of more than $50\%$ of their traffic, depending on the type of competitive advantage that drives customer's airline choice. These results highlight how the complex competitive structure of the WAN weakens its robustness when facing such a large crisis.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
