arXivDaily arXiv每日学术速递 周一至周五更新
arXiv 2004.07473cs.LGcs.AIstat.ML
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基于部分弹道数据的目标预测

Destination Prediction Based on Partial Trajectory Data

Technische Universität Berlin(柏林工业大学);Mercedes-Benz Innovation Lab, MBition GmbH(梅赛德斯-奔驰创新实验室,MBition有限公司)

Patrick Ebel, Ibrahim Emre Göl, Christoph Lingenfelder, Andreas Vogelsang

摘要:

三分之二购买新车的人更喜欢使用替代品而不是内置导航系统。然而,对于许多应用,关于用户的预期目的地和路线的知识是至关重要的。例如,可以提出靠近目的地的可用停车位的建议,或者促进沿着路线的共乘机会。我们的方法预测可能的目的地和路线的车辆,根据最近的部分轨迹和额外的上下文数据。该方法遵循三个步骤的过程:首先,一个$k$ -d树为基础的空间离散化进行,映射GPS位置到离散区域。其次,训练一个递归神经网络,根据轨迹的部分序列预测目的地。神经网络产生目的地分数,表示每个地区成为目的地的概率。最后,计算到最可能的目的地的路线。为了评估该方法,我们比较了多个神经架构,并提出了目的地预测的实验结果。实验是基于两个公共数据集的非个性化的,时间戳的GPS位置的出租车行程。性能最好的模型能够预测车辆的目的地,平均误差分别为1.3公里和1.43公里。

英文摘要:

Two-thirds of the people who buy a new car prefer to use a substitute instead of the built-in navigation system. However, for many applications, knowledge about a user's intended destination and route is crucial. For example, suggestions for available parking spots close to the destination can be made or ride-sharing opportunities along the route are facilitated. Our approach predicts probable destinations and routes of a vehicle, based on the most recent partial trajectory and additional contextual data. The approach follows a three-step procedure: First, a $k$-d tree-based space discretization is performed, mapping GPS locations to discrete regions. Secondly, a recurrent neural network is trained to predict the destination based on partial sequences of trajectories. The neural network produces destination scores, signifying the probability of each region being the destination. Finally, the routes to the most probable destinations are calculated. To evaluate the method, we compare multiple neural architectures and present the experimental results of the destination prediction. The experiments are based on two public datasets of non-personalized, timestamped GPS locations of taxi trips. The best performing models were able to predict the destination of a vehicle with a mean error of 1.3 km and 1.43 km respectively.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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