The current Air Traffic Management (ATM) system worldwide has reached its limits in terms of predictability, efficiency and cost effectiveness. Different initiatives worldwide propose trajectory-oriented transformations that require high fidelity aircraft trajectory planning and prediction capabilities, supporting the trajectory life cycle at all stages efficiently. Recently proposed data-driven trajectory prediction approaches provide promising results. In this paper we approach the data-driven trajectory prediction problem as an imitation learning task, where we aim to imitate experts "shaping" the trajectory. Towards this goal we present a comprehensive framework comprising the Generative Adversarial Imitation Learning state of the art method, in a pipeline with trajectory clustering and classification methods. This approach, compared to other approaches, can provide accurate predictions for the whole trajectory (i.e. with a prediction horizon until reaching the destination) both at the pre-tactical (i.e. starting at the departure airport at a specific time instant) and at the tactical (i.e. from any state while flying) stages, compared to state of the art approaches.
Models for predicting aircraft motion are an important component of modern aeronautical systems. These models help aircraft plan collision avoidance maneuvers and help conduct offline performance and safety analyses. In this article, we develop a method for learning a probabilistic generative model of aircraft motion in terminal airspace, the controlled airspace surrounding a given airport. The method fits the model based on a historical dataset of radar-based position measurements of aircraft landings and takeoffs at that airport. We find that the model generates realistic trajectories, provi…
Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；NASA Ames Research Center（美国国家航空航天局艾姆斯研究中心）
This paper presents a framework aimed at monitoring the behavior of aircraft in a given airspace. Nominal trajectories are determined and learned using data driven methods. Standard procedures are used by air traffic controllers (ATC) to guide aircraft, ensure the safety of the airspace, and to maximize the runway occupancy. Even though standard procedures are used by ATC, the control of the aircraft remains with the pilots, leading to a large variability in the flight patterns observed. Two methods to identify typical operations and their variability from recorded radar tracks are presented. …
University of Surrey（萨里大学）；Karlshule Institute of Technology（卡尔斯鲁厄理工学院）
This work adds on to the on-going efforts to provide more autonomy to space robots. Here the concept of programming by demonstration or imitation learning is used for trajectory planning of manipulators mounted on small spacecraft. For greater autonomy in future space missions and minimal human intervention through ground control, a robot arm having 7-Degrees of Freedom (DoF) is envisaged for carrying out multiple tasks like debris removal, on-orbit servicing and assembly. Since actual hardware implementation of microgravity environment is extremely expensive, the demonstration data for trajec…
Trajectory Planning for UAV-Based Smart Farming Using Imitation-Based Triple Deep Q-Learning
National Institute of Informatics（国立信息研究所）；The University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile（智利天主教大学）；China Agricultural University（中国农业大学）
Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology（韩国科学技术院）；The University of Queensland（昆士兰大学）
Recently, an abundant amount of urban vehicle trajectory data has been collected in road networks. Many studies have used machine learning algorithms to analyze patterns in vehicle trajectories to predict location sequences of individual travelers. Unlike the previous studies that used a discriminative modeling approach, this research suggests a generative modeling approach to learn the underlying distributions of urban vehicle trajectory data. A generative model for urban vehicle trajectories can better generalize from training data by learning the underlying distribution of the training data…
The unprecedented increase of commercial airlines and private jets over the next ten years presents a challenge for air traffic control. Precise flight trajectory prediction is of great significance in air transportation management, which contributes to the decision-making for safe and orderly flights. Existing research and application mainly focus on the sequence generation based on historical trajectories, while the aircraft-aircraft interactions in crowded airspace especially the airspaces near busy airports have been largely ignored. On the other hand, there are distinct characteristics of…
We introduce a simple new method for visual imitation learning, which allows a novel robot manipulation task to be learned from a single human demonstration, without requiring any prior knowledge of the object being interacted with. Our method models imitation learning as a state estimation problem, with the state defined as the end-effector's pose at the point where object interaction begins, as observed from the demonstration. By then modelling a manipulation task as a coarse, approach trajectory followed by a fine, interaction trajectory, this state estimator can be trained in a self-superv…
Reliable 4D aircraft trajectory prediction, whether in a real-time setting or for analysis of counterfactuals, is important to the efficiency of the aviation system. Toward this end, we first propose a highly generalizable efficient tree-based matching algorithm to construct image-like feature maps from high-fidelity meteorological datasets - wind, temperature and convective weather. We then model the track points on trajectories as conditional Gaussian mixtures with parameters to be learned from our proposed deep generative model, which is an end-to-end convolutional recurrent neural network …
Autonomous driving is a complex task, which has been tackled since the first self-driving car ALVINN in 1989, with a supervised learning approach, or behavioral cloning (BC). In BC, a neural network is trained with state-action pairs that constitute the training set made by an expert, i.e., a human driver. However, this type of imitation learning does not take into account the temporal dependencies that might exist between actions taken in different moments of a navigation trajectory. These type of tasks are better handled by reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms, which need to define a rewar…
University of California, Berkeley（加州大学伯克利分校）；Toyota Research Institute（丰田研究院）
On-policy imitation learning algorithms such as DAgger evolve a robot control policy by executing it, measuring performance (loss), obtaining corrective feedback from a supervisor, and generating the next policy. As the loss between iterations can vary unpredictably, a fundamental question is under what conditions this process will eventually achieve a converged policy. If one assumes the underlying trajectory distribution is static (stationary), it is possible to prove convergence for DAgger. However, in more realistic models for robotics, the underlying trajectory distribution is dynamic bec…
NVIDIA（英伟达）；Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院）；University of Washington（华盛顿大学）
Imitation learning (IL) is a frequently used approach for data-efficient policy learning. Many IL methods, such as Dataset Aggregation (DAgger), combat challenges like distributional shift by interacting with oracular experts. Unfortunately, assuming access to oracular experts is often unrealistic in practice; data used in IL frequently comes from offline processes such as lead-through or teleoperation. In this paper, we present a novel imitation learning technique called Collocation for Demonstration Encoding (CoDE) that operates on only a fixed set of trajectory demonstrations. We circumvent…
Deep Imitation Learning requires a large number of expert demonstrations, which are not always easy to obtain, especially for complex tasks. A way to overcome this shortage of labels is through data augmentation. However, this cannot be easily applied to control tasks due to the sequential nature of the problem. In this work, we introduce a novel augmentation method which preserves the success of the augmented trajectories. To achieve this, we introduce a semi-supervised correction network that aims to correct distorted expert actions. To adequately test the abilities of the correction network…
A number of applications to interplanetary trajectories have been recently proposed based on deep networks. These approaches often rely on the availability of a large number of optimal trajectories to learn from. In this paper we introduce a new method to quickly create millions of optimal spacecraft trajectories from a single nominal trajectory. Apart from the generation of the nominal trajectory, no additional optimal control problems need to be solved as all the trajectories, by construction, satisfy Pontryagin's minimum principle and the relevant transversality conditions. We then consider…
Nanjing University（南京大学）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））；Shenzhen Research Institute of Big Data（深圳大数据研究院）
Imitation learning learns a policy from expert trajectories. While the expert data is believed to be crucial for imitation quality, it was found that a kind of imitation learning approach, adversarial imitation learning (AIL), can have exceptional performance. With as little as only one expert trajectory, AIL can match the expert performance even in a long horizon, on tasks such as locomotion control. There are two mysterious points in this phenomenon. First, why can AIL perform well with only a few expert trajectories? Second, why does AIL maintain good performance despite the length of the p…
