We construct a pathwise formulation of a growing population of cells, based on two different samplings of lineages within the population, namely the forward and backward samplings. We show that a general symmetry relation, called fluctuation relation relates these two samplings, independently of the model used to generate divisions and growth in the cell population. These relations lead to estimators of the population growth rate, which can be very efficient as we demonstrate by an analysis of a set of mother machine data. These fluctuation relations lead to general and important inequalities between the mean number of divisions and the doubling time of the population. We also study the fitness landscape, a concept based on the two samplings mentioned above, which quantifies the correlations between a phenotypic trait of interest and the number of divisions. We obtain explicit results when the trait is the age or the size, for age and size-controlled models.
We considered a {multi-block} molecular model of biological evolution, in which fitness is a function of the mean types of alleles located at different parts (blocks) of the genome. We formulated an infinite population model with selection and mutation, and calculated the mean fitness. For the case of recombination, we formulated a model with a multidimensional fitness landscape (the dimension of the space is equal to the number of blocks) and derived a theorem about the dynamics of initially narrow distribution. We also considered the case of lethal mutations. We also formulated the finite po…
Mutational escape from vaccine induced immune responses has thwarted the development of a successful vaccine against AIDS, whose causative agent is HIV, a highly mutable virus. Knowing the virus' fitness as a function of its proteomic sequence can enable rational design of potent vaccines, as this information can focus vaccine induced immune responses to target mutational vulnerabilities of the virus. Spin models have been proposed as a means to infer intrinsic fitness landscapes of HIV proteins from patient-derived viral protein sequences. These sequences are the product of non-equilibrium vi…
Fitness landscapes are central in analyzing evolution, in particular for drug resistance mutations for bacteria and virus. We show that the fitness landscapes associated with antibiotic resistance are not compatible with any of the classical models; additive, uncorrelated and block fitness landscapes. The NK model is also discussed. It is frequently stated that virtually nothing is known about fitness landscapes in nature. We demonstrate that available records of antimicrobial drug mutations can reveal interesting properties of fitness landscapes in general. We apply the methods to analyze the…
The idea of adaptive walks on fitness landscapes as a means of studying evolutionary processes on large time scales is extended to fitness landscapes that are slowly changing over time. The influence of ruggedness and of the amount of static fitness contributions are investigated for model landscapes derived from Kauffman's $NK$ landscapes. Depending on the amount of static fitness contributions in the landscape, the evolutionary dynamics can be divided into a percolating and a non-percolating phase. In the percolating phase, the walker performs a random walk over the regions of the landscape …
Epistasis occurs when the effect of a mutation depends on its carrier's genetic background. Despite increasing evidence that epistasis for fitness is common, its role during evolution is contentious. Fitness landscapes, mappings of genotype or phenotype to fitness, capture the full extent and complexity of epistasis. Fitness landscape theory has shown how epistasis affects the course and the outcome of evolution. Moreover, by measuring the competitive fitness of sets of tens to thousands of connected genotypes, empirical fitness landscapes have shown that epistasis is frequent and depends on t…
Molecular evolution is often conceptualised as adaptive walks on rugged fitness landscapes, driven by mutations and constrained by incremental fitness selection. It is well known that epistasis shapes the ruggedness of the landscape's surface, outlining their topography (with high-fitness peaks separated by valleys of lower fitness genotypes). However, within the strong selection weak mutation (SSWM) limit, once an adaptive walk reaches a local peak, natural selection restricts passage through downstream paths and hampers any possibility of reaching higher fitness values. Here, in addition to …
The class of epistatic fitness landscapes is much more diverse than the class of non-epistatic landscapes, and so it stands to reason that there exist dynamical phenomena that can only be realized in the presence of epistasis. Here, we compare evolutionary dynamics on all finite epistatic landscapes versus all finite non-epistatic landscapes, under weak mutation. We first analyze the mean fitness trajectory - that is, the time course of the expected fitness of a population. We show that for any epistatic fitness landscape and starting genotype, there always exists a non-epistatic fitness lands…
The fitness landscape defines the relationship between genotypes and fitness in a given environment, and underlies fundamental quantities such as the distribution of selection coefficient, or the magnitude and type of epistasis. A better understanding of variation of landscape structure across species and environments is thus necessary to understand and predict how populations will adapt. An increasing number of experiments investigates the properties of fitness landscapes by identifying mutations, constructing genotypes with combinations of these mutations, and measuring the fitness of these …
Recent theoretical research proposes that computational complexity can be seen as an ultimate constraint that allows for open-ended biological evolution on finite static fitness landscapes. Whereas on easy fitness landscapes, evolution will quickly converge to a local fitness peaks, on hard fitness landscapes this computational constraints prevents evolution from reaching any local fitness peak in polynomial time. Valued constraint satisfaction problems (VCSPs) can be used to represent both easy and hard fitness landscapes. Thus VCSPS can be seen as a natural way of linking the theory of evolu…
The factors that influence genetic architecture shape the structure of the fitness landscape, and therefore play a large role in the evolutionary dynamics. Here the NK model is used to investigate how epistasis and pleiotropy -- key components of genetic architecture -- affect the structure of the fitness landscape, and how they affect the ability of evolving populations to adapt despite the difficulty of crossing valleys present in rugged landscapes. Populations are seen to make use of epistatic interactions and pleiotropy to attain higher fitness, and are not inhibited by the fact that valle…
It has recently been noted that the relative prevalence of the various kinds of epistasis varies along an adaptive walk. This has been explained as a result of mean regression in NK model fitness landscapes. Here we show that this phenomenon occurs quite generally in fitness landscapes. We propose a simple and general explanation for this phenomemon, confirming the role of mean regression. We provide support for this explanation with simulations, and discuss the empirical relevance of our findings.
Genotypic fitness landscapes are constructed by assessing the fitness of all possible combinations of a given number of mutations. In the last years, several experimental fitness landscapes have been completely resolved. As fitness landscapes are high-dimensional, their characterization relies on simple measures of their structure, which can be used as statistics in empirical applications. Here we propose two new sets of measures that explicitly capture two relevant features of fitness landscapes: epistasis and constraints. The first set contains new measures for epistasis based on the correla…
The fitness landscape encodes the mapping of genotypes to fitness and provides a succinct representation of possible trajectories followed by an evolving population. Evolutionary accessibility is quantified by the existence of fitness-monotonic paths connecting far away genotypes. Studies of accessibility percolation use probabilistic fitness landscape models to explore the emergence of such paths as a function of the initial fitness, the parameters of the landscape or the structure of the genotype graph. This chapter reviews these studies and discusses their implications for the predictabilit…
Epistatic interactions between mutations add substantial complexity to adaptive landscapes, and are often thought of as detrimental to our ability to predict evolution. Yet, patterns of global epistasis, in which the fitness effect of a mutation is well-predicted by the fitness of its genetic background, may actually be of help in our efforts to reconstruct fitness landscapes and infer adaptive trajectories. Microscopic interactions between mutations, or inherent nonlinearities in the fitness landscape, may cause global epistasis patterns to emerge. In this brief review, we provide a succinct …
We study the evolutionary dynamics of a maladapted population of self-replicating sequences on strongly correlated fitness landscapes. Each sequence is assumed to be composed of blocks of equal length and its fitness is given by a linear combination of four independent block fitnesses. A mutation affects the fitness contribution of a single block leaving the other blocks unchanged and hence inducing correlations between the parent and mutant fitness. On such strongly correlated fitness landscapes, we calculate the dynamical properties like the number of jumps in the most populated sequence and…
Starting from fitness correlation functions, we calculate exact expressions for the amplitude spectra of fitness landscapes as defined by P.F. Stadler [J. Math. Chem. 20, 1 (1996)] for common landscape models, including Kauffman's NK-model, rough Mount Fuji landscapes and general linear superpositions of such landscapes. We further show that correlations decaying exponentially with the Hamming distance yield exponentially decaying spectra similar to those reported recently for a model of molecular signal transduction. Finally, we compare our results for the model systems to the spectra of vari…
We consider finite population size effects for Crow-Kimura and Eigen quasispecies models with single peak fitness landscape. We formulate accurately the iteration procedure for the finite population models, then derive Hamilton-Jacobi equation (HJE) to describe the dynamic of the probability distribution. The steady state solution of HJE gives the variance of the mean fitness. Our results are useful for understanding population sizes of virus in which the infinite population models can give reliable results for the biological evolution problems.
Species do not merely evolve, they also coevolve with other organisms. Coevolution is a major force driving interacting species to continuously evolve ex- ploring their fitness landscapes. Coevolution involves the coupling of species fit- ness landscapes, linking species genetic changes with their inter-specific ecological interactions. Here we first introduce the Red Queen hypothesis of evolution com- menting on some theoretical aspects and empirical evidences. As an introduction to the fitness landscape concept, we review key issues on evolution on simple and rugged fitness landscapes. Then …
Fitness landscapes are genotype to fitness mappings commonly used in evolutionary biology and computer science which are closely related to spin glass models. In this paper, we study the NK model for fitness landscapes where the interaction scheme between genes can be explicitly defined. The focus is on how this scheme influences the overall shape of the landscape. Our main tool for the analysis are adaptive walks, an idealized dynamics by which the population moves uphill in fitness and terminates at a local fitness maximum. We use three different types of walks and investigate how their leng…
We discuss fitness landscapes and how they can be modified to account for co-evolution. We are interested in using the landscape as a way to model rational decision making in a toy economic system. We develop a model very similar to the Tangled Nature Model of Christensen et. al. that we call the Tangled Decision Model. This is a natural setting for our discussion of co-evolutionary fitness landscapes. We use a Monte Carlo step to simulate decision making and investigate two different decision making procedures.
We study how correlations in the random fitness assignment may affect the structure of fitness landscapes. We consider three classes of fitness models. The first is a continuous phenotype space in which individuals are characterized by a large number of continuously varying traits such as size, weight, color, or concentrations of gene products which directly affect fitness. The second is a simple model that explicitly describes genotype-to-phenotype and phenotype-to-fitness maps allowing for neutrality at both phenotype and fitness levels and resulting in a fitness landscape with tunable corre…
The relationship between the shape of a fitness landscape and the underlying gene interactions, or epistasis, has been extensively studied in the two-locus case. Gene interactions among multiple loci are usually reduced to two-way interactions. We present a geometric theory of shapes of fitness landscapes for multiple loci. A central concept is the genotope, which is the convex hull of all possible allele frequencies in populations. Triangulations of the genotope correspond to different shapes of fitness landscapes and reveal all the gene interactions. The theory is applied to fitness data fro…
Natural selection drives populations towards higher fitness, but crossing fitness valleys or plateaus may facilitate progress up a rugged fitness landscape involving epistasis. We investigate quantitatively the effect of subdividing an asexual population on the time it takes to cross a fitness valley or plateau. We focus on a generic and minimal model that includes only population subdivision into equivalent demes connected by global migration, and does not require significant size changes of the demes, environmental heterogeneity or specific geographic structure. We determine the optimal spee…
The concept of fitness is introduced, and a simple derivation of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection (which states that the average fitness of a population increases if its variance is nonzero) is given. After a short discussion of the adaptative walk model, a short review is given of the quasispecies approach to molecular evolution and to the error threshold. The relevance of flat fitness landscapes to molecular evolution is stressed. Finally a few examples which involve wider concepts of fitness, and in particular two-level selection, are shortly reviewed.
We study the distribution of the maximum of a set of random fitnesses with fixed number of mutations in a model of biological evolution. The fitness variables are not independent and the correlations can be varied via a parameter $\ell=1,...,L$. We present analytical calculations for the following three solvable cases: (i) one-step mutants with arbitrary $\ell$ (ii) weakly correlated fitnesses with $\ell=L/2$ (iii) strongly correlated fitnesses with $\ell=2$. In all these cases, we find that the limit distribution for the maximum fitness is not of the standard Gumbel form.
The paper deals with using chaos to direct trajectories to targets and analyzes ruggedness and fractality of the resulting fitness landscapes. The targeting problem is formulated as a dynamic fitness landscape and four different chaotic maps generating such a landscape are studied. By using a computational approach, we analyze properties of the landscapes and quantify their fractal and rugged characteristics. In particular, it is shown that ruggedness measures such as correlation length and information content are scale-invariant and self-similar.
We investigate the evolutionary dynamics of a finite population of sequences adapting to NK fitness landscapes. We find that, unlike in the case of an infinite population, the average fitness in a finite population is maximized at a small but finite, rather than vanishing, mutation rate. The highest local maxima in the landscape are visited for even larger mutation rates, close to a transition point at which the population delocalizes (i.e., leaves the fitness peak at which it was localized) and starts traversing the sequence space. If the mutation rate is increased even further, the populatio…
Background: Recent experimental and theoretical studies have shown that small asexual populations evolving on complex fitness landscapes may achieve a higher fitness than large ones due to the increased heterogeneity of adaptive trajectories. Here we introduce a class of haploid three-locus fitness landscapes that allows to investigate this scenario in a precise and quantitative way. Results: Our main result derived analytically shows how the probability of choosing the path of largest initial fitness increase grows with the population size. This makes large populations more likely to get trap…
Phenotypic fluctuations and plasticity can generally affect the course of evolution, a process known as the Baldwin effect. Several studies have recast this effect and claimed that phenotypic plasticity acceler- ates evolutionary rate (the Baldwin expediting effect); however, the validity of this claim is still controversial. In this study, we investi- gate the evolutionary population dynamics of a quantitative genetic model under a multi-peaked fitness landscape, in order to evaluate the validity of the effect. We provide analytical expressions for the evolutionary rate and average population…
This Letter studies the quasispecies dynamics of a population capable of genetic repair evolving on a time-dependent fitness landscape. We develop a model that considers an asexual population of single-stranded, conservatively replicating genomes, whose only source of genetic variation is due to copying errors during replication. We consider a time-dependent, single-fitness-peak landscape where the master sequence changes by a single point mutation every time $ τ$. We are able to analytically solve for the evolutionary dynamics of the population in the point-mutation limit. In particular, our …
A fitness landscape is a genetic space -- with two genotypes adjacent if they differ in a single locus -- and a fitness function. Evolutionary dynamics produce a flow on this landscape from lower fitness to higher; reaching equilibrium only if a local fitness peak is found. I use computational complexity to question the common assumption that evolution on static fitness landscapes can quickly reach a local fitness peak. I do this by showing that the popular NK model of rugged fitness landscapes is PLS-complete for K >= 2; the reduction from Weighted 2SAT is a bijection on adaptive walks, so th…
Biological systems are modular, and this modularity affects the evolution of biological systems over time and in different environments. We here develop a theory for the dynamics of evolution in a rugged, modular fitness landscape. We show analytically how horizontal gene transfer couples to the modularity in the system and leads to more rapid rates of evolution at short times. The model, in general, analytically demonstrates a selective pressure for the prevalence of modularity in biology. We use this model to show how the evolution of the influenza virus is affected by the modularity of the …
We study the evolution of asexual microorganisms with small mutation rate in fluctuating environments, and develop techniques that allow us to expand the formal solution of the evolution equations to first order in the mutation rate. Our method can be applied to both discrete time and continuous time systems. While the behavior of continuous time systems is dominated by the average fitness landscape for small mutation rates, in discrete time systems it is instead the geometric mean fitness that determines the system's properties. In both cases, we find that in situations in which the arithmeti…
We study Eigen's quasispecies model in the asymptotic regime where the length of the genotypes goes to infinity and the mutation probability goes to 0. We give several explicit formulas for the stationary solutions of the limiting system of differential equations.
The fitness landscape - the mapping between genotypes and fitness - determines properties of the process of adaptation. Several small genetic fitness landscapes have recently been built by selecting a handful of beneficial mutations and measuring fitness of all combinations of these mutations. Here we generate several testable predictions for the properties of these landscapes under Fisher's geometric model of adaptation (FGMA). When far from the fitness optimum, we analytically compute the fitness effect of beneficial mutations and their epistatic interactions. We show that epistasis may be n…
We consider evolution of a large population, where fitness of each organism is defined by many phenotypical traits. These traits result from expression of many genes. We propose a new model of gene regulation, where gene expression is controlled by a gene network with a threshold mechanism and there is a feedback between that threshold and gene expression. We show that this regulation is very powerful: depending on parameters we can obtain any functional connection between thresholds and genes. Under general assumptions on fitness we prove that such model organisms are capable, to some extent,…
Experimental studies on enzyme evolution show that only a small fraction of all possible mutation trajectories are accessible to evolution. However, these experiments deal with individual enzymes and explore a tiny part of the fitness landscape. We report an exhaustive analysis of fitness landscapes constructed with an off-lattice model of protein folding where fitness is equated with robustness to misfolding. This model mimics the essential features of the interactions between amino acids, is consistent with the key paradigms of protein folding and reproduces the universal distribution of evo…
The genotype-fitness map plays a fundamental role in shaping the dynamics of evolution. However, it is difficult to directly measure a fitness landscape in practice, because the number of possible genotypes is astronomical. One approach is to sample as many genotypes as possible, measure their fitnesses, and fit a statistical model of the landscape that includes additive and pairwise interactive effects between loci. Here we elucidate the pitfalls of using such regressions, by studying artificial but mathematically convenient fitness landscapes. We identify two sources of bias inherent in thes…
Simple sign epistasis and evolutionary detours in fitness landscapes
UK Health Security Agency（英国卫生安全局）；Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, The James Hutton Institute（苏格兰生物数学与统计学，詹姆斯·赫顿研究所）；Group of Complex Systems and Statistical Mechanics, Physics Faculty, University of Havana（哈瓦那大学物理学院复杂系统与统计力学小组）；System Modeling Group, Institute for Veterinary Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Freie Universitaet Berlin（柏林自由大学兽医流行病学和生物统计学研究所系统建模小组）；Accenture（埃森哲）；National University of General Sarmiento（圣萨尔米恩托国立大学）；Department of Biology, University of Oxford（牛津大学生物学系）；Institute for Biological Physics, University of Cologne（科隆大学生物物理学研究所）；Pandemic Sciences Institute and Big Data Institute, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford（牛津大学纳菲尔德医学系大流行病科学与大数据研究所）
Mutational robustness quantifies the effect of random mutations on fitness. When mutational robustness is high, most mutations do not change fitness or have only a minor effect on it. From the point of view of fitness landscapes, robust genotypes form neutral networks of almost equal fitness. Using deterministic population models it has been shown that selection favors genotypes inside such networks, which results in increased mutational robustness. Here we demonstrate that this effect is massively enhanced by recombination. Our results are based on a detailed analysis of mesa-shaped fitness l…
The tempo and mode of an adaptive process is strongly determined by the structure of the fitness landscape that underlies it. In order to be able to predict evolutionary outcomes (even on the short term), we must know more about the nature of realistic fitness landscapes than we do today. For example, in order to know whether evolution is predominantly taking paths that move upwards in fitness and along neutral ridges, or else entails a significant number of valley crossings, we need to be able to visualize these landscapes: we must determine whether there are peaks in the landscape, where the…
The nature of epistasis has important consequences for the evolutionary significance of sex and recombination. Recent efforts to find negative epistasis as source of negative linkage disequilibrium and associated long-term sex advantage have yielded little support. Sign epistasis, where the sign of the fitness effects of alleles varies across genetic backgrounds, is responsible for ruggedness of the fitness landscape with implications for the evolution of sex that have been largely unexplored. Here, we describe fitness landscapes for two sets of strains of the asexual fungus \emph{Aspergillus …
This is an introductory review of deterministic mutation-selection models for asexual populations (i.e., quasispecies theory) and related topics. First, the basic concepts of fitness, mutations, and sequence space are introduced. Different types of mutation-selection dynamics are defined and their relation to problems of statistical physics are outlined. Then the stationary population distribution in simple, single peak fitness landscapes is discussed at length, with particular emphasis on the error threshold phenomenon. Extensions of the theory covering e.g. epistatic interactions, diploid or…
Kauffman's NK-model is a paradigmatic example of a class of stochastic models of genotypic fitness landscapes that aim to capture generic features of epistatic interactions in multilocus systems. Genotypes are represented as sequences of $L$ binary loci. The fitness assigned to a genotype is a sum of contributions, each of which is a random function defined on a subset of $k \le L$ loci. These subsets or neighborhoods determine the genetic interactions of the model. Whereas earlier work on the NK model suggested that most of its properties are robust with regard to the choice of neighborhoods,…
Darwinian evolution can be illustrated as an uphill walk in a landscape, where the surface consists of genotypes, the height coordinates represent fitness, and each step corresponds to a point mutation. Epistasis, roughly defined as the dependence between the fitness effects of mutations, is a key concept in the theory of adaptation. Important recent approaches depend on graphs and polytopes. Fitness graphs are useful for describing coarse properties of a landscape, such as mutational trajectories and the number of peaks. The graphs have been used for relating global and local properties of fi…
Random walks on multidimensional nonlinear landscapes are of interest in many areas of science and engineering. In particular, properties of adaptive trajectories on fitness landscapes determine population fates and thus play a central role in evolutionary theory. The topography of fitness landscapes and its effect on evolutionary dynamics have been extensively studied in the literature. We will survey the current research knowledge in this field, focusing on a recently developed systematic approach to characterizing path lengths, mean first-passage times, and other statistics of the path ense…
A simplified form of the time dependent evolutionary dynamics of a quasispecies model with a rugged fitness landscape is solved via a mapping onto a random flux model whose asymptotic behavior can be described in terms of a random walk. The statistics of the number of changes of the dominant genotype from a finite set of genotypes are exactly obtained confirming existing conjectures based on numerics.
Evolutionary adaptation is the process that increases the fit of a population to the fitness landscape it inhabits. As a consequence, evolutionary dynamics is shaped, constrained, and channeled, by that fitness landscape. Much work has been expended to understand the evolutionary dynamics of adapting populations, but much less is known about the structure of the landscapes. Here, we study the global and local structure of complex fitness landscapes of interacting loci that describe protein folds or sets of interacting genes forming pathways or modules. We find that in these landscapes, high pe…
We consider the adaptation dynamics of an asexual population that walks uphill on a rugged fitness landscape which is endowed with large number of local fitness peaks. We work in a parameter regime where only those mutants that are single mutation away are accessible, as a result of which the population eventually gets trapped at a local fitness maximum and the adaptive walk terminates. We study how the number of adaptive steps taken by the population before reaching a local fitness peak depends on the initial fitness of the population, the extreme value distribution of the beneficial mutation…
A two-valued fitness landscape is introduced for the classical Eigen's quasispecies model. This fitness landscape can be considered as a direct generalization of the so-called single or sharply peaked landscape. A general, non permutation invariant quasispecies model is studied, therefore the dimension of the problem is $2^N\times 2^N$, where $N$ is the sequence length. It is shown that if the fitness function is equal to $w+s$ on a $G$-orbit $A$ and is equal to $w$ elsewhere, then the mean population fitness can be found as the largest root of an algebraic equation of degree at most $N+1$. He…
In this paper, we investigate fitness landscapes (under point mutation and recombination) from the standpoint of whether the induced evolutionary dynamics have a "fast-slow" time scale associated with the differences in relaxation time between local quasi-equilibria and the global equilibrium. This dynamical behavior has been formally described in the econometrics literature in terms of the spectral properties of the appropriate operator matrices by Simon and Ando (1961), and we use the relations they derive to ask which fitness functions and mutation/recombination operators satisfy these prop…
Sewall Wright's adaptive landscape metaphor penetrates a significant part of evolutionary thinking. Supplemented with Fisher's fundamental theorem of natural selection and Kimura's maximum principle, it provides a unifying and intuitive representation of the evolutionary process under the influence of natural selection as the hill climbing on the surface of mean population fitness. On the other hand, it is also well known that for many more or less realistic mathematical models this picture is a sever misrepresentation of what actually occurs. Therefore, we are faced with two questions. First,…
We study adaptation of a haploid asexual population on a fitness landscape defined over binary genotype sequences of length $L$. We consider greedy adaptive walks in which the population moves to the fittest among all single mutant neighbors of the current genotype until a local fitness maximum is reached. The landscape is of the rough mount Fuji type, which means that the fitness value assigned to a sequence is the sum of a random and a deterministic component. The random components are independent and identically distributed random variables, and the deterministic component varies linearly w…
