Multivariate subordinated Lévy processes are widely employed in finance for modeling multivariate asset returns. We propose to exploit non-linear dependence among financial assets through multivariate cumulants of these processes, for which we provide a closed form formula by using the multi-index generalized Bell polynomials. Using multivariate cumulants, we perform a sensitivity analysis, to investigate non-linear dependence as a function of the model parameters driving the dependence structure
The Karhunen-Loève expansion and the Fredholm determinant formula are used to derive an asymptotic Rosenblatt-type distribution of a sequence of integrals of quadratic functions of Gaussian stationary random fields on R^d displaying long-range dependence. This distribution reduces to the usual Rosenblatt distribution when d=1. Several properties of this new distribution are obtained. Specifically, its series representation in terms of independent chi-squared random variables is given, the asymptotic behavior of the eigenvalues, its Lèvy-Khintchine representation, as well as its membership to t…
Block-based resampling estimators have been intensively investigated for weakly dependent time processes, which has helped to inform implementation (e.g., best block sizes). However, little is known about resampling performance and block sizes under strong or long-range dependence. To establish guideposts in block selection, we consider a broad class of strongly dependent time processes, formed by a transformation of a stationary long-memory Gaussian series, and examine block-based resampling estimators for the variance of the prototypical sample mean; extensions to general statistical functio…
We consider multivariate copula-based stationary time-series under Gaussian subordination. Observed time series are subordinated to long-range dependent Gaussian processes and characterized by arbitrary marginal copula distributions. First of all, we establish limit theorems for the marginal and quantile marginal empirical processes of multivariate stationary long-range dependent sequences under Gaussian subordination. Furthermore, we establish the asymptotic behavior of sequential empirical copula processes under non-restrictive smoothness assumptions. The limiting processes in the case of lo…
In this article, we show that the recently introduced ordinal pattern dependence fits into the axiomatic framework of general multivariate dependence measures, i.e., measures of dependence between two multivariate random objects. Furthermore, we consider multivariate generalizations of established univariate dependence measures like Kendall's $τ$, Spearman's $ρ$ and Pearson's correlation coefficient. Among these, only multivariate Kendall's $τ$ proves to take the dynamical dependence of random vectors stemming from multidimensional time series into account. Consequently, the article focuses on…
Extreme values modeling has attracting the attention of researchers in diverse areas such as the environment, engineering, or finance. Multivariate extreme value distributions are particularly suitable to model the tails of multidimensional phenomena. The analysis of the dependence among multivariate maxima is useful to evaluate risk. Here we present new multivariate extreme value models, as well as, coefficients to assess multivariate extremal dependence.
A central issue in the theory of extreme values focuses on suitable conditions such that the well-known results for the limiting distributions of the maximum of i.i.d. sequences can be applied to stationary ones. In this context, the extremal index appears as a key parameter to capture the effect of temporal dependence on the limiting distribution of the maxima. The multivariate extremal index corresponds to a generalization of this concept to a multivariate context and affects the tail dependence structure within the marginal sequences and between them. As it is a function, the inference beco…
We propose new summary statistics to quantify the association between the components in coverage-reweighted moment stationary multivariate random sets and measures. They are defined in terms of the coverage-reweighted cumulant densities and extend classic functional statistics for stationary random closed sets. We study the relations between these statistics and evaluate them explicitly for a range of models. Unbiased estimators are given for all statistics and applied to simulated examples.
A new multivariate dependence measure based on comonotonicity
本文基于Koch和Schepper（ASTIN Bulletin 41（2011）191-213）和Dhaene等人（Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 263（2014）78-87）的最新论文，通过乘积矩引入了一种新的基于共单调性的多元相关度量.分析了新的相关测度与其它多元测度的区别和联系。给出了该测度的几个性质，并在此基础上给出了一些估计。
This paper explores certain kinds of empirical process with respect to the components of multivariate Gaussian. We put forward some finite sample bounds which hold for multivariate Gaussian under general dependence. We give necessary and sufficient condition for the convergence in probability of the random variable sequence $\displaystyle\left\{\sup_t\vert\widehat{F}_n(t)-\mathbf{E}\widehat{F}_n(t)\vert\right\}_{n\in \mathbb{N}}$, where $\widehat{F}_n(t)$ is the empirical distribution. Also, we find a similar sufficient condition for almost surely convergence.
The present contribution derives an explicit expression for (a version of) every uni- and multi-variate conditional distribution (i.e., Markov kernel) of Archimedean copulas and uses this representation to generalize a recently established result, saying that in the class of multivariate Archimedean copulas standard uniform convergence implies weak convergence of almost all univariate Markov kernels, to arbitrary multivariate Markov kernels. Moreover, we prove that an Archimedean copula is singular if, and only if, almost all uni- and multivariate Markov kernels are singular. These results are…
The energy distance and energy scores became important tools in multivariate statistics and multivariate probabilistic forecasting in recent years. They are both based on the expected distance of two independent samples. In this paper we study dependence uncertainty bounds for these quantities under the assumption that we know the marginals but do not know the dependence structure. We find some interesting sharp analytic bounds, where one of them is obtained for an unusual spherically symmetric copula. These results should help to better understand the sensitivity of these measures to misspeci…
Tests for break points detection in the law of random vectors have been proposed in several papers. Nevertheless, they have often little powers for alternatives involving a change in the dependence between components of vectors. Specific tests for detection of a change in the copula of random vectors have been proposed in recent papers, but they do not allow to conclude of a change in the dependence structure without condition that the margins are constant. The goal of this article is to propose a test for detection of a break in the copula when a change in marginal distribution occurs at a kn…
Multivariate processes with long-range dependence properties can be encountered in many fields of application. Two fundamental characteristics in such frameworks are long-range dependence parameters and correlations between component time series. We consider multivariate long-range dependent linear processes, not necessarily Gaussian. We show that the covariances between the wavelet coefficients in this setting are asymptotically Gaussian. We also study the asymptotic distributions of the estimators of the long-range dependence parameter and the long-run covariance by a wavelet-based Whittle p…
Working with so-called linkages allows to define a copula-based, $[0,1]$-valued multivariate dependence measure $ζ^1(\boldsymbol{X},Y)$ quantifying the scale-invariant extent of dependence of a random variable $Y$ on a $d$-dimensional random vector $\boldsymbol{X}=(X_1,\ldots,X_d)$ which exhibits various good and natural properties. In particular, $ζ^1(\boldsymbol{X},Y)=0$ if and only if $\boldsymbol{X}$ and $Y$ are independent, $ζ^1(\boldsymbol{X},Y)$ is maximal exclusively if $Y$ is a function of $\boldsymbol{X}$, and ignoring one or several coordinates of $\boldsymbol{X}$ can not increase t…
A new index based on empirical copulas, termed the Copula Statistic (CoS), is introduced for assessing the strength of multivariate dependence and for testing statistical independence. New properties of the copulas are proved. They allow us to define the CoS in terms of a relative distance function between the empirical copula, the Fréchet-Hoeffding bounds and the independence copula. Monte Carlo simulations reveal that for large sample sizes, the CoS is approximately normal. This property is utilised to develop a CoS-based statistical test of independence against various noisy functional depe…
Multivariate time series with long-dependence are observed in many applications such as finance , geophysics or neuroscience. Many packages provide estimation tools for univariate settings but few are addressing the problem of long-dependence estimation for multivariate settings. The package multiwave is providing efficient estimation procedures for multivariate time series. Two semi-parametric estimation methods of the long-memory exponents and long-run covariance matrix of time series are implemented. The first one is the Fourier-based estimation proposed by [18] and the second one is a wave…
We study a broad class of asymmetric copulas introduced by Liebscher (2008) as a combination of multiple - usually symmetric - copulas. The main thrust of the paper is to provide new theoretical properties including exact tail dependence expressions and stability properties. A subclass of Liebscher copulas obtained by combining Fréchet copulas is studied in more details. We establish further dependence properties for copulas of this class and show that they are characterized by an arbitrary number of singular components. Furthermore, we introduce a novel iterative representation for general Li…
This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences only the conditional mean and the conditional variance of each of the time series but the distribution of the standardized innovations is not influenced by the covariate and is stable in time. The joint distribution of the time series is then determined by the conditional means, the conditional variances and the marginal distributions of the innovations, which …
The study of multivariate extremes is dominated by multivariate regular variation, although it is well known that this approach does not provide adequate distinction between random vectors whose components are not always simultaneously large. Various alternative dependence measures and representations have been proposed, with the most well-known being hidden regular variation and the conditional extreme value model. These varying depictions of extremal dependence arise through consideration of different parts of the multivariate domain, and particularly exploring what happens when extremes of …
The present article is devoted to the semi-parametric estimation of multivariate expectiles for extreme levels. The considered multivariate risk measures also include the possible conditioning with respect to a functional covariate, belonging to an infinite-dimensional space. By using the first order optimality condition, we interpret these expectiles as solutions of a multidimensional nonlinear optimum problem. Then the inference is based on a minimization algorithm of gradient descent type, coupled with consistent kernel estimations of our key statistical quantities such as conditional quant…
Multivariate (or vector-valued) processes are important for modeling multiple variables. The fractal indices of the components of the underlying multivariate process play a key role in characterizing the dependence structures and statistical properties of the multivariate process. In this paper, under the infill asymptotics framework, we establish joint asymptotic results for the increment-based estimators of bivariate fractal indices. Our main results quantitatively describe the effect of the cross-dependence structure on the performance of the estimators.
We propose three measures of mutual dependence between multiple random vectors. All the measures are zero if and only if the random vectors are mutually independent. The first measure generalizes distance covariance from pairwise dependence to mutual dependence, while the other two measures are sums of squared distance covariance. All the measures share similar properties and asymptotic distributions to distance covariance, and capture non-linear and non-monotone mutual dependence between the random vectors. Inspired by complete and incomplete V-statistics, we define the empirical measures and…
The multiscale Fisher's independence test (MULTIFIT hereafter) proposed by Gorsky & Ma (2022) is a novel method to test independence between two random vectors. By its design, this test is particularly useful in detecting local dependence. Moreover, by adopting a resampling-free approach, it can easily accommodate massive sample sizes. Another benefit of the proposed method is its ability to interpret the nature of dependency. We congratulate the authors, Shai Gorksy and Li Ma, for their very interesting and elegant work. In this comment, we would like to discuss a general framework unifying t…
Central limit theory for serial tail dependence estimators in heavy-tailed long memory linear time series
University of Stuttgart（斯图加特大学）；Stuttgart Center for Simulation Science (SC SimTech), University of Stuttgart（斯图加特大学斯图加特模拟科学中心）；Univ Angers, CNRS, LAREMA, SFR MATHSTIC（昂热大学、法国国家科学研究中心、LAREMA、MATHSTIC研究联盟）
Ordinal pattern dependence is a multivariate dependence measure based on the co-movement of two time series. In strong connection to ordinal time series analysis, the ordinal information is taken into account to derive robust results on the dependence between the two processes. This article deals with ordinal pattern dependence for long-range dependent time series including mixed cases of short- and long-range dependence. We investigate the limit distributions for estimators of ordinal pattern dependence. In doing so we point out the differences that arise for the underlying time series having…
Besides the classical distinction of correlation and dependence, many dependence measures bear further pitfalls in their application and interpretation. The aim of this paper is to raise and recall awareness of some of these limitations by explicitly discussing Pearson's correlation and the multivariate dependence measures: distance correlation, distance multicorrelations and their copula versions. The discussed aspects include types of dependence, bias of empirical measures, influence of marginal distributions and dimensions. In general it is recommended to use a proper dependence measure ins…
Accurately determining dependency structure is critical to discovering a system's causal organization. We recently showed that the transfer entropy fails in a key aspect of this---measuring information flow---due to its conflation of dyadic and polyadic relationships. We extend this observation to demonstrate that this is true of all such Shannon information measures when used to analyze multivariate dependencies. This has broad implications, particularly when employing information to express the organization and mechanisms embedded in complex systems, including the burgeoning efforts to combi…
This paper introduces vector copulas associated with multivariate distributions with given multivariate marginals, based on the theory of measure transportation, and establishes a vector version of Sklar's theorem. The latter provides a theoretical justification for the use of vector copulas to characterize nonlinear or rank dependence between a finite number of random vectors (robust to within vector dependence), and to construct multivariate distributions with any given non overlapping multivariate marginals. We construct Elliptical and Kendall families of vector copulas, derive their densit…
The need to test whether two random vectors are independent has spawned a large number of competing measures of dependence. We are interested in nonparametric measures that are invariant under strictly increasing transformations, such as Kendall's tau, Hoeffding's D, and the more recently discovered Bergsma--Dassios sign covariance. Each of these measures exhibits symmetries that are not readily apparent from their definitions. Making these symmetries explicit, we define a new class of multivariate nonparametric measures of dependence that we refer to as Symmetric Rank Covariances. This new cl…
Inferring linear dependence between time series is central to our understanding of natural and artificial systems. Unfortunately, the hypothesis tests that are used to determine statistically significant directed or multivariate relationships from time-series data often yield spurious associations (Type I errors) or omit causal relationships (Type II errors). This is due to the autocorrelation present in the analysed time series -- a property that is ubiquitous across diverse applications, from brain dynamics to climate change. Here we show that, for limited data, this issue cannot be mediated…
