Getting insights on human mobility patterns and being able to reproduce them accurately is of the utmost importance in a wide range of applications from public health, to transport and urban planning. Still the relationship between the effort individuals will invest in a trip and its purpose importance is not taken into account in the individual mobility models that can be found in the recent literature. Here, we address this issue by introducing a model hypothesizing a relation between the importance of a trip and the distance traveled. In most practical cases, quantifying such importance is undoable. We overcome this difficulty by focusing on shopping trips (for which we have empirical data) and by taking the price of items as a proxy. Our model is able to reproduce the long-tailed distribution in travel distances empirically observed and to explain the scaling relationship between distance traveled and item value found in the data.
Predicting human mobility between locations has practical applications in transportation science, spatial economics, sociology and many other fields. For more than 100 years, many human mobility prediction models have been proposed, among which the gravity model analogous to Newton's law of gravitation is widely used. Another classical model is the intervening opportunity (IO) model, which indicates that an individual selecting a destination is related to both the destination's opportunities and the intervening opportunities between the origin and the destination. The IO model established from…
We extended the Biham-Middleton-Levine model to incorporate the origin and destination effect of drivers trips on the traffic in cities. The destination sites are randomly chosen from some origin-destination distances probability distribution "ODDPD". We use three different distributions: exponential, uniform and power-law. We consider two variants of the model. In conserved particles model (Model A), drivers continue their travelling even if they reached their destinations. In non-conserved particles model (Model B), a driver which reaches its destination disappears with rate $β$. It is found…
With remarkable significance in migration prediction, global disease mitigation, urban planning and many others, an arresting challenge is to predict human mobility fluxes between any two locations. A number of methods have been proposed against the above challenge, including the gravity model, the intervening opportunity model, the radiation model, the population-weighted opportunity model, and so on. Despite their theoretical elegance, all models ignored an intuitive and important ingredient in individual decision about where to go, that is, the possible congestion on the way and the possibl…
Percolation Transition of K-Destinations Reveals Universal Backbone of Urban Mobility Networks
Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems, Peking University（北京大学遥感与地理信息系统研究所）；The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (Guangzhou)（香港科技大学（广州））
Predicting human mobility patterns has many practical applications in urban planning, traffic engineering, infectious disease epidemiology, emergency management and location-based services. Developing a universal model capable of accurately predicting the mobility fluxes between locations is a fundamental and challenging problem in regional economics and transportation science. Here, we propose a new parameter-free model named opportunity priority selection model as an alternative in human mobility prediction. The basic assumption of the model is that an individual will select destination loca…
We perform a systematic analysis on the large-scale taxi trip data to uncover urban mobility and city dynamics in multimodal urban transportation environments. As a case study, we use the taxi origin-destination trip data and some additional data sources in Washington DC area. We first study basic characteristics of taxi trips, then focus on five important aspects. Three of them concern urban mobility, which are respectively mobility and cost including effect of traffic congestion, trip safety, and multimodal connectivity; the other two pertain to city dynamics, which are respectively transpor…
The objective of this study is to propose and test an adaptive reinforcement learning model that can learn the patterns of human mobility in a normal context and simulate the mobility during perturbations caused by crises, such as flooding, wildfire, and hurricanes. Understanding and predicting human mobility patterns, such as destination and trajectory selection, can inform emerging congestion and road closures raised by disruptions in emergencies. Data related to human movement trajectories are scarce, especially in the context of emergencies, which places a limitation on applications of exi…
We present a simple model and algorithm for predicting driver destinations and routes, based on the input of the latest road links visited as part of an ongoing trip. The algorithm may be used to predict any clusters previously observed in a driver's trip history. It assumes that the driver's historical trips are grouped into clusters sharing similar patterns. Given a new trip, the algorithm attempts to predict the cluster in which the trip belongs. The proposed algorithm has low temporal complexity. In addition, it does not require the transition and emission matrices of the Markov chain to b…
Host mobility plays a fundamental role in the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Previous theoretical works based on the integration of network theory into the metapopulation framework have shown that the heterogeneities that characterize real mobility networks favor the propagation of epidemics. Nevertheless, the studies conducted so far assumed the mobility process to be either Markovian or non-Markovian with a fixed traveling time scale. Available statistics however show that the time spent by travelers at destination is characterized by wide fluctuations, ranging between a single day u…
Reliability-Aware Refinement of High-Resolution Human Mobility Origin-Destination Tables under Sparsity and Suppression
Institute of Systems and Information Engineering, University of Tsukuba（筑波大学系统信息工程学院）；GEOTRA Co., Ltd.（GEOTRA有限公司）；School of Data Science, Yokohama City University（横滨市立大学数据科学学院）
Understanding human mobility patterns -- how people move in their everyday lives -- is an interdisciplinary research field. It is a question with roots back to the 19th century that has been dramatically revitalized with the recent increase in data availability. Models of human mobility often take the population distribution as a starting point. Another, sometimes more accurate, data source is land-use maps. In this paper, we discuss how the intra-city movement patterns, and consequently population distribution, can be predicted from such data sources. As a link between land use and mobility, …
Up-to-date information wirelessly communicated among vehicles can be used to select the optimal route between a given origin and destination. To elucidate how to make use of such information, simulations are performed for autonomous vehicles traveling on a square lattice of roads. All the possible routes between the origin and the destination (without backtracking) are of the same length. Congestion is the only determinant of delay. At each intersection, right-of-way is given to the closest vehicle. There are no traffic lights. Trip times of a subject vehicle are recorded for various initial c…
The extraction of a clear and simple footprint of the structure of large, weighted and directed networks is a general problem that has many applications. An important example is given by origin-destination matrices which contain the complete information on commuting flows, but are difficult to analyze and compare. We propose here a versatile method which extracts a coarse-grained signature of mobility networks, under the form of a $2\times 2$ matrix that separates the flows into four categories. We apply this method to origin-destination matrices extracted from mobile phone data recorded in th…
Despite the long history of modelling human mobility, we continue to lack a highly accurate approach with low data requirements for predicting mobility patterns in cities. Here, we present a population-weighted opportunities model without any adjustable parameters to capture the underlying driving force accounting for human mobility patterns at the city scale. We use various mobility data collected from a number of cities with different characteristics to demonstrate the predictive power of our model. We find that insofar as the spatial distribution of population is available, our model offers…
We propose new probabilistic models for the spatial distribution of supply and demand and use the models to determine how the trip length distribution is affected by the relative shortage or excess of supply, the spatial clustering of supply and demand, and the degree of attraction or repulsion between supply and demand at different spatial scales. The models have a multiplicative structure and in certain cases possess scale invariance properties. Using detailed population data in metropolitan US regions validates the demand model. The trip length distribution, evaluated under destination choi…
Tourists tend to visit multiple destinations out of their variety-seeking motivations in their trips. Thus, it is critical to discover travel patterns involving multi-destinations in tourism research. Existing relevant research most relied on survey data or focused on citizens due to the lack of large-scale, fine-grained tourism datasets. Several scholars have mentioned the notion of trip chains, but few works have been done towards quantitatively identifying the structures of trip chains. In this paper, we propose a model for quantitatively characterizing tourist daily trip chains. After appl…
As a newly-emerging travel mode in the era of mobile internet, ride-hailing that connects passengers with private-car drivers via an online platform has been very popular all over the world. Although it attracts much attention in both practice and theory, the understanding of ride-hailing is still very limited largely because of the lack of related data. For the first time, this paper introduces ride-hailing drivers' multi-day trip order data and portrays ride-hailing mobility in Beijing, China, from the regional and driver's perspectives. The analyses from the regional perspective help unders…
The analysis of contagion-diffusion processes in metapopulations is a powerful theoretical tool to study how mobility influences the spread of communicable diseases. Nevertheless, many metapopulation approaches use indistinguishable agents to alleviate analytical difficulties. Here, we address the impact that recurrent mobility patterns, and the spatial distribution of distinguishable agents, have on the unfolding of epidemics in large urban areas. We incorporate the distinguishable nature of agents regarding both, their residence, and their usual destination. The proposed model allows both a …
The scales of urban mobility shape socioeconomic mixing
Central European University（中欧大学）；University of Glasgow（格拉斯哥大学）；TU Dortmund University（多特蒙德工业大学）；Universitat Pompeu Fabra（庞培法布拉大学）；Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research（马克斯·普朗克人口研究研究所）；Liverpool University（利物浦大学）
The growth of transportation networks and their increasing interconnections, although positive, has the downside effect of an increasing complexity which make them difficult to use, to assess, and limits their efficiency. On average in the UK, 23% of travel time is lost in connections for trips with more than one mode, and the lack of synchronization decreases very slowly with population size. This lack of synchronization between modes induces differences between the theoretical quickest trip and the `time-respecting' path, which takes into account waiting times at interconnection nodes. We an…
The intrinsic factor that drives the human movement remains unclear for decades. While our observations from intra-urban and inter-urban trips both demonstrate a universal law in human mobility. Be specific, the probability from one location to another is inversely proportional to the number of population living in locations which are closer than the destination. A simple rank-based model is then presented, which is parameterless but predicts human flows with a convincing fidelity. Besides, comparison with other models shows that our model is more stable and fundamental at different spatial sc…
Big, transport-related datasets are nowadays publicly available, which makes data-driven mobility analysis possible. Trips with their origins, destinations and travel times are collected in publicly available big databases, which allows for a deeper and richer understanding of mobility patterns. This paper proposes a low dimensional approach to combine these data sources with weather data in order to forecast the daily demand for Bike Sharing Systems (BSS). The core of this approach lies in the proposed clustering technique, which reduces the dimension of the problem and, differently from othe…
Trip distribution laws are basic for the travel demand characterization needed in transport and urban planning. Several approaches have been considered in the last years. One of them is the so-called gravity law, in which the number of trips is assumed to be related to the population at origin and destination and to decrease with the distance. The mathematical expression of this law resembles Newton's law of gravity, which explains its name. Another popular approach is inspired by the theory of intervening opportunities which argues that the distance has no effect on the destination choice, pl…
Mobility cross spatial units represents the embodiment of how people manage activities between locations along temporal sequences. Spatiotemporal pattern nevertheless interacts with the socioeconomic characteristics of respected origin (push factors) and destination (pull factors) which widely discussed in spatial interaction literature. Observing this dynamics at higher spatial resolution allows us to entangle multifaceted nature of city, its complexity as a system or network, and the way it shapes movement of people. This study explore the extent interconnected elements of urban system or ur…
Americans travel 7 to 9 miles on average for shopping and recreational activities, which is far longer than the 15-minute (walking) city advocated by ecologically-oriented urban planners. This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of local trip behavior in US cities using GPS data on individual trips from 40 million mobile devices. We define local usage as the share of trips made within 15-minutes walking distance from home, and find that the median US city resident makes only 12% of their daily trips within such a short distance. We find that differences in access to local services can expl…
Potential Landscapes Reveal Spatiotemporal Structure in Urban Mobility: Hodge Decomposition and Principal Component Analysis of Tokyo Before and During COVID-19
The constrained outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China has recently been regarded as a successful example of fighting this highly contagious virus. Both the short period (in about three months) of transmission and the sub-exponential increase of confirmed cases in Mainland China have proved that the Chinese authorities took effective epidemic prevention measures, such as case isolation, travel restrictions, closing recreational venues, and banning public gatherings. These measures can, of course, effectively control the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, they may dramatically change t…
In the advent of a pervasive presence of location sharing services researchers gained an unprecedented access to the direct records of human activity in space and time. This paper analyses geo-located Twitter messages in order to uncover global patterns of human mobility. Based on a dataset of almost a billion tweets recorded in 2012 we estimate volumes of international travelers in respect to their country of residence. We examine mobility profiles of different nations looking at the characteristics such as mobility rate, radius of gyration, diversity of destinations and a balance of the infl…
This research evidences the usefulness of open big data to map mobility patterns in a medium-sized city. Motivated by the novel analysis that big data allow worldwide and in large metropolitan areas, we developed a methodology aiming to complement origin-destination surveys with à la carte spatial boundaries and updated data at a minimum cost. This paper validates the use of Twitter data to map the impact of public spaces on the different parts of the metropolitan area of Concepción, Chile. Results have been validated by local experts and evidence the main mobility patterns towards spaces of s…
Recent mobility scaling research, using new data sources, often relies on aggregated data alone. Hence, these studies face difficulties characterizing the influence of factors such as transportation mode on mobility patterns. This paper attempts to complement this research by looking at a category-rich mobility data set. In order to shed light on the impact of categories, as a case study, we use conventionally collected German mobility data. In contrast to `check-in'-based data, our results are not biased by Euclidean distance approximations. In our analysis, we show that aggregation can hide …
The vast majority of travel takes place within cities. Recently, new data has become available which allows for the discovery of urban mobility patterns which differ from established results about long distance travel. Specifically, the latest evidence increasingly points to exponential trip length distributions, contrary to the scaling laws observed on larger scales. In this paper, in order to explore the origin of the exponential law, we propose a new model which can predict individual flows in urban areas better. Based on the model, we explain the exponential law of intra-urban mobility as …
Understanding dynamic human mobility changes and spatial interaction patterns at different geographic scales is crucial for assessing the impacts of non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as stay-at-home orders) during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this data descriptor, we introduce a regularly-updated multiscale dynamic human mobility flow dataset across the United States, with data starting from March 1st, 2020. By analyzing millions of anonymous mobile phone users' visits to various places provided by SafeGraph, the daily and weekly dynamic origin-to-destination (O-D) population flows are compu…
In this paper, we extend some ideas of statistical physics to describe the properties of human mobility. From a physical point of view, we consider the statistical empirical laws of private cars mobility, taking advantage of a GPS database which contains a sampling of the individual trajectories of 2% of the whole vehicle population in an Italian region. Our aim is to discover possible "universal laws" that can be related to the dynamical cognitive features of individuals. Analyzing the empirical trip length distribution we study if the travel time can be used as universal cost function in a m…
The worldwide outbreak of COVID-19 has posed a dire threat to the public. Human mobility has changed in various ways over the course of the pandemic. Despite current studies on common mobility metrics, research specifically on state-to-state mobility is very limited. By leveraging the mobile phone location data from over 100 million anonymous devices, we estimate the population flow between all states in the United States. We first analyze the temporal pattern and spatial differences of between-state flow from January 1, 2020 to May 15, 2020. Then, with repeated measures ANOVA and post-hoc ana…
The advent of geographic online social networks such as Foursquare, where users voluntarily signal their current location, opens the door to powerful studies on human movement. In particular the fine granularity of the location data, with GPS accuracy down to 10 meters, and the worldwide scale of Foursquare adoption are unprecedented. In this paper we study urban mobility patterns of people in several metropolitan cities around the globe by analyzing a large set of Foursquare users. Surprisingly, while there are variations in human movement in different cities, our analysis shows that those ar…
Many of our routines and activities are linked to our ability to move; be it commuting to work, shopping for groceries, or meeting friends. Yet, factors that limit the individuals' ability to fully realise their mobility needs will ultimately affect the opportunities they can have access to (e.g., cultural activities, professional interactions). One important aspect frequently overlooked in human mobility studies is how gender-centred issues can amplify other sources of mobility disadvantages (e.g., socioeconomic inequalities), unevenly affecting the pool of opportunities men and women have ac…
We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bi-directional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of the model on regular and complex metapopulation network topologies and show that significant dynamical differences exist to ordinary reaction-diffusion and effective force of infection models. On a lattice we calculate an expression for the velocity of the propagating epidemic front and find that in contrast to the diffusive systems, our model predicts a satu…
Human mobility is investigated using a continuum approach that allows to calculate the probability to observe a trip to anyarbitrary region, and the fluxes between any two regions. The considered description offers a general and unified framework, in which previously proposed mobility models like the gravity model, the intervening opportunities model, and the recently introduced radiation model are naturally resulting as special cases. A new form of radiation model is derived and its validity is investigated using observational data offered by commuting trips obtained from the United States ce…
Institute of Cartography and Geoinformation, ETH Zurich（测绘与地理信息研究所，苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Department of Human Geography, Lund University（人类地理学系，吕勒奥大学）；Future Resilient Systems, Singapore-ETH Centre, ETH Zurich（未来韧性系统，新加坡-苏黎世联邦理工学院，苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, ETH Zurich（摄影测量与遥感，苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Department of Geography, University College London（地理系，伦敦大学学院）
