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arXiv 2004.01431cs.AI
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通过定性变化模拟时间序列数据中的罕见相互作用:应用于重症监护病房的结局预测

Modeling Rare Interactions in Time Series Data Through Qualitative Change: Application to Outcome Prediction in Intensive Care Units

King’s College London(伦敦国王学院);University of Edinburgh(爱丁堡大学)

Zina Ibrahim, Honghan Wu, Richard Dobson

摘要:

许多研究领域的特点是大量的大规模高维时间序列数据。然而,由于我们发现和量化解释结果的真实相互作用的能力目前滞后,使用可用于预测和决策的数据受到阻碍。我们对重症监护医学等领域感兴趣,这些领域的特点是i)对多变量的连续监测和数据流的非均匀采样,ii)结果通常由一小部分罕见事件之间的相互作用决定,iii)这些相互作用不一定由特定值定义(或值范围),而是由这些值与随时间记录的正常状态的偏差,iv)需要解释模型做出的预测。在这里,虽然许多数据采掘模型已经制定了结果预测,他们无法解释他们的预测。我们提出了一个模型,用于发现从高维时间序列数据中产生结果的可能性最高的相互作用。变量之间的相互作用由关系图结构表示,该关系图结构依赖于定性抽象来克服非均匀采样,并捕获与感兴趣的变量随时间的变化和偏离正态性相对应的相互作用的语义。使用的假设,类似的模板的小的相互作用是负责的结果(在医疗领域普遍),我们重新制定的发现任务,从数据中检索最有可能的模板。

英文摘要:

Many areas of research are characterised by the deluge of large-scale highly-dimensional time-series data. However, using the data available for prediction and decision making is hampered by the current lag in our ability to uncover and quantify true interactions that explain the outcomes.We are interested in areas such as intensive care medicine, which are characterised by i) continuous monitoring of multivariate variables and non-uniform sampling of data streams, ii) the outcomes are generally governed by interactions between a small set of rare events, iii) these interactions are not necessarily definable by specific values (or value ranges) of a given group of variables, but rather, by the deviations of these values from the normal state recorded over time, iv) the need to explain the predictions made by the model. Here, while numerous data mining models have been formulated for outcome prediction, they are unable to explain their predictions. We present a model for uncovering interactions with the highest likelihood of generating the outcomes seen from highly-dimensional time series data. Interactions among variables are represented by a relational graph structure, which relies on qualitative abstractions to overcome non-uniform sampling and to capture the semantics of the interactions corresponding to the changes and deviations from normality of variables of interest over time. Using the assumption that similar templates of small interactions are responsible for the outcomes (as prevalent in the medical domains), we reformulate the discovery task to retrieve the most-likely templates from the data.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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