核电站退役环境影响的时空贝叶斯分析
Space-time Bayesian analysis of the environmental impact of a dismissing nuclear power plant
摘要：
目前的工作涉及在过去的二十年里，在加里利亚诺河周围的加里利亚诺核电厂（GNPP），这是位于意大利南部，并于1979年关闭的平原进行的三个运动的数据。此外，还考虑到了80年代切尔诺贝利事故期间进行的调查的一些数据。土壤样品的结果，特别是137 Cs和236 U的比活度，分析了它们在空间和时间上的扩展。与环境放射性数据的传统分析有关的一些问题（数值的非正态分布、样本点数量少、多重比较和存在低于最低可探测活度的数值）已通过使用贝叶斯方法得到克服。本文的范围有三个方面：（1）介绍在加里利亚诺平原上进行的最后一次活动的数据;（2）将这些数据插入更大的时空框架;（3）使用活动数据，说明贝叶斯方法如何应用于放射性环境调查，强调其优于其他方法。其结果是：（i）过去几十年没有新的贡献;（ii）GNPP周围地区的比活度值与其他更远地区的比活度值一致;（iii）137 Cs的有效耗尽半衰期系数远低于该放射性核素的半衰期。
英文摘要：
The present work concerns data of three campaigns carried out during the last twenty years in the plain of the Garigliano river surrounding the Garigliano Nuclear Power Plant (GNPP), which is located in Southern Italy and shut down in 1979. Moreover, some data from surveys held in the eighties, across the Chernobyl accident, have been taken in account. The results for the soil samples, in particular for 137Cs and 236U specific activity, were analyzed for their extension in space and in time. Some of the problems related to the classical analysis of environmental radiological data (non-normal distribution of the values, small number of sample points, multiple comparison and presence of values lesser than the minimum detectable activity) have been overcome with the use of Bayesian methods. The scope of the paper is threefold: (1) to introduce the data of the last campaign held in the Garigliano plain; (2) to insert these data in a larger spatio-temporal frame; (3) to show how the Bayesian approach can be applied to radiological environmental surveys, stressing out its advantages over other approaches, using the data of the campaigns. It results that (i) no new contribution there was in the last decades, (ii) specific activity values of the area surrounding the GNPP are consistent with those obtained in other farther areas, (iii) the effective depletion half-life factor for 137Cs is much lower than the half-life of the radionuclide.
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