Predictive modelling of disease propagation in a mobile, connected community

传染病在食物链中引发新兴振荡、灭绝及群落持久性变化

Infectious Disease Induces Emergent Oscillations, Extinction and Changes in Community Persistence in a Food Chain

研究传染病对食物链的影响，通过在广义Lotka-Volterra方程支配的食物链模型中引入新参数实施SIR模型，发现传染病使捕食者种群规模有时振荡，顶级捕食者在特定参数下可能灭绝，且改变群落持久性。

Deterministic Critical Community Size For The SIR System and Viral Strain Selection

In this paper the concept of Critical Community Size (CCS) for the deterministic SIR model is introduced and its consequences for the disease dynamics are stressed. The disease can fade out after an outburst. Also the principle of competitive exclusion holds no longer true. This is exemplified for the dynamics of two competing virus strains. The virus with higher R0 can be eradicated from the population.

Assessing the interplay between human mobility and mosquito borne diseases in urban environments

Urbanization drives the epidemiology of infectious diseases to many threats and new challenges. In this research, we study the interplay between human mobility and dengue outbreaks in the complex urban environment of the city-state of Singapore. We integrate both stylized and mobile phone data-driven mobility patterns in an agent-based transmission model in which humans and mosquitoes are represented as agents that go through the epidemic states of dengue. We monitor with numerical simulations the system-level response to the epidemic by comparing our results with the observed cases reported d…

A Note on Species Richness and the Variance of Epidemic Severity

The commonly observed negative correlation between the number of species in an ecological community and disease risk, typically referred to as "the dilution effect", has received a substantial amount of attention over the past decade. Attempts to test this relationship experimentally have revealed that, in addition to the mean disease risk decreasing with species number, so too does the variance of disease risk. This is referred to as the "variance reduction effect", and has received relatively little attention in the disease-diversity literature. Here, we set out to clarify and quantify some …

Diseases spreading through individual based models with realistic mobility patterns

The individual-based models constitute a set of widely implemented tools to analyze the incidence of individuals heterogeneities in the spread of an infectious disease. In this work we focus our attention on human contacts heterogeneities through two of the main individual-based models: mobile agents and complex networks models. We introduce a novel mobile agents model in which individuals make displacements with sizes according to a truncated power-law distribution based on empirical evidence about human mobility. Besides, we present a procedure to obtain an equivalent weighted contact networ…

Dynamic group testing to control and monitor disease progression in a population

In the context of a pandemic like COVID-19, and until most people are vaccinated, proactive testing and interventions have been proved to be the only means to contain the disease spread. Recent academic work has offered significant evidence in this regard, but a critical question is still open: Can we accurately identify all new infections that happen every day, without this being forbiddingly expensive, i.e., using only a fraction of the tests needed to test everyone everyday (complete testing)? Group testing offers a powerful toolset for minimizing the number of tests, but it does not accoun…