A Novel Twitter Sentiment Analysis Model with Baseline Correlation for Financial Market Prediction with Improved Efficiency
King's College London（伦敦国王学院）；Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）
Xinyi Guo, Jinfeng Li
备注：
2019 Sixth IEEE International Conference on Social Networks Analysis, Management and Security (SNAMS)
发表信息：
Proceedings of 2019 Sixth IEEE International Conference on Social Networks Analysis, Management and Security (SNAMS), Granada, Spain, 2019, pp. 472-477
A novel social networks sentiment analysis model is proposed based on Twitter sentiment score (TSS) for real-time prediction of the future stock market price FTSE 100, as compared with conventional econometric models of investor sentiment based on closed-end fund discount (CEFD). The proposed TSS model features a new baseline correlation approach, which not only exhibits a decent prediction accuracy, but also reduces the computation burden and enables a fast decision making without the knowledge of historical data. Polynomial regression, classification modelling and lexicon-based sentiment analysis are performed using R. The obtained TSS predicts the future stock market trend in advance by 15 time samples (30 working hours) with an accuracy of 67.22% using the proposed baseline criterion without referring to historical TSS or market data. Specifically, TSS's prediction performance of an upward market is found far better than that of a downward market. Under the logistic regression and linear discriminant analysis, the accuracy of TSS in predicting the upward trend of the future market achieves 97.87%.
Sentiment analysis on social media such as Twitter provides organizations and individuals an effective way to monitor public emotions towards them and their competitors. As a result, sentiment analysis has become an important and challenging task. In this work, we have collected seven publicly available and manually annotated twitter sentiment datasets. We create a new training and testing dataset from the collected datasets. We develop an LSTM model to classify sentiment of a tweet and evaluate the model with the new dataset.
National Institute of Technology, Surat（苏拉特国立理工学院）
Microbloging is an extremely prevalent broadcast medium amidst the Internet fraternity these days. People share their opinions and sentiments about variety of subjects like products, news, institutions, etc., every day on microbloging websites. Sentiment analysis plays a key role in prediction systems, opinion mining systems, etc. Twitter, one of the microbloging platforms allows a limit of 140 characters to its users. This restriction stimulates users to be very concise about their opinion and twitter an ocean of sentiments to analyze. Twitter also provides developer friendly streaming API fo…
Social media users share their ideas, thoughts, and emotions with other users. However, it is not clear how online users would respond to new research outcomes. This study aims to predict the nature of the emotions expressed by Twitter users toward scientific publications. Additionally, we investigate what features of the research articles help in such prediction. Identifying the sentiments of research articles on social media will help scientists gauge a new societal impact of their research articles.
This project addresses the problem of sentiment analysis in twitter; that is classifying tweets according to the sentiment expressed in them: positive, negative or neutral. Twitter is an online micro-blogging and social-networking platform which allows users to write short status updates of maximum length 140 characters. It is a rapidly expanding service with over 200 million registered users - out of which 100 million are active users and half of them log on twitter on a daily basis - generating nearly 250 million tweets per day. Due to this large amount of usage we hope to achieve a reflecti…
We present a descriptive analysis of Twitter data. Our study focuses on extracting the main side effects associated with HIV treatments. The crux of our work was the identification of personal tweets referring to HIV. We summarize our results in an infographic aimed at the general public. In addition, we present a measure of user sentiment based on hand-rated tweets.
We study the relationship between the sentiment levels of Twitter users and the evolving network structure that the users created by @-mentioning each other. We use a large dataset of tweets to which we apply three sentiment scoring algorithms, including the open source SentiStrength program. Specifically we make three contributions. Firstly we find that people who have potentially the largest communication reach (according to a dynamic centrality measure) use sentiment differently than the average user: for example they use positive sentiment more often and negative sentiment less often. Seco…
Social media are increasingly reflecting and influencing behavior of other complex systems. In this paper we investigate the relations between a well-know micro-blogging platform Twitter and financial markets. In particular, we consider, in a period of 15 months, the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 stock companies that form the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) index. We find a relatively low Pearson correlation and Granger causality between the corresponding time series over the entire time period. However, we find a significant dependence between the Twitter sentiment and abnorma…
University American College Skopje（斯科普里美国学院）；Qatar Computing Research Institute（卡塔尔计算研究所）；HBKU（哈马德·本·哈利法大学）
We present work on sentiment analysis in Twitter for Macedonian. As this is pioneering work for this combination of language and genre, we created suitable resources for training and evaluating a system for sentiment analysis of Macedonian tweets. In particular, we developed a corpus of tweets annotated with tweet-level sentiment polarity (positive, negative, and neutral), as well as with phrase-level sentiment, which we made freely available for research purposes. We further bootstrapped several large-scale sentiment lexicons for Macedonian, motivated by previous work for English. The impact …
This paper presents a financial analysis over Twitter sentiment analytics extracted from listed retail brands. We investigate whether there is statistically-significant information between the Twitter sentiment and volume, and stock returns and volatility. Traditional newswires are also considered as a proxy for the market sentiment for comparative purpose. The results suggest that social media is indeed a valuable source in the analysis of the financial dynamics in the retail sector even when compared to mainstream news such as the Wall Street Journal and Dow Jones Newswires.
Over the past decade humans have experienced exponential growth in the use of online resources, in particular social media and microblogging websites such as Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and also mobile applications such as WhatsApp, Line, etc. Many companies have identified these resources as a rich mine of marketing knowledge. This knowledge provides valuable feedback which allows them to further develop the next generation of their product. In this paper, sentiment analysis of a product is performed by extracting tweets about that product and classifying the tweets showing it as positive and …
We investigate the relationship between social media, Twitter in particular, and stock market. We provide an in-depth analysis of the Twitter volume and sentiment about the 30 companies in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index, over a period of three years. We focus on Earnings Announcements and show that there is a considerable difference with respect to when the announcements are made: before the market opens or after the market closes. The two different timings of the Earnings Announcements were already investigated in the financial literature, but not yet in the social media. We analyze t…
This paper is to explore the possibility to use alternative data and artificial intelligence techniques to trade stocks. The efficacy of the daily Twitter sentiment on predicting the stock return is examined using machine learning methods. Reinforcement learning(Q-learning) is applied to generate the optimal trading policy based on the sentiment signal. The predicting power of the sentiment signal is more significant if the stock price is driven by the expectation of the company growth and when the company has a major event that draws the public attention. The optimal trading strategy based on…
We study the power of Twitter events to predict consumer sales events by analysing sales for 75 companies from the retail sector and over 150 million tweets mentioning those companies along with their sentiment. We suggest an approach for events identification on Twitter extending existing methodologies of event study. We also propose a robust method for clustering Twitter events into different types based on their shape, which captures the varying dynamics of information propagation through the social network. We provide empirical evidence that through events differentiation based on their sh…
Analysing sentiment of tweets is important as it helps to determine the users' opinion. Knowing people's opinion is crucial for several purposes starting from gathering knowledge about customer base, e-governance, campaigning and many more. In this report, we aim to develop a system to detect the sentiment from tweets. We employ several linguistic features along with some other external sources of information to detect the sentiment of a tweet. We show that augmenting the 140 character-long tweet with information harvested from external urls shared in the tweet as well as Social Media features…
Politechnika Warszawska（华沙理工大学）；Wydział Elektroniki i Technik Informacyjnych（电子与信息技术学院）；Instytut Informatyki（计算机科学研究所）
Text mining analysis of tweets gathered during Polish presidential election on May 10th, 2015. The project included implementation of engine to retrieve information from Twitter, building document corpora, corpora cleaning, and creating Term-Document Matrix. Each tweet from the text corpora was assigned a category based on its sentiment score. The score was calculated using the number of positive and/or negative emoticons and Polish words in each document. The result data set was used to train and test four machine learning classifiers, to select these providing most accurate automatic tweet c…
Gun related violence is a complex issue and accounts for a large proportion of violent incidents. In the research reported in this paper, we set out to investigate the pro-gun and anti-gun sentiments expressed on a social media platform, namely Twitter, in response to the 2012 Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting in Connecticut, USA. Machine learning techniques are applied to classify a data corpus of over 700,000 tweets. The sentiments are captured using a public sentiment score that considers the volume of tweets as well as population. A web-based interactive tool is developed to visualise …
The rise in popularity and ubiquity of Twitter has made sentiment analysis of tweets an important and well-covered area of research. However, the 140 character limit imposed on tweets makes it hard to use standard linguistic methods for sentiment classification. On the other hand, what tweets lack in structure they make up with sheer volume and rich metadata. This metadata includes geolocation, temporal and author information. We hypothesize that sentiment is dependent on all these contextual factors. Different locations, times and authors have different emotional valences. In this paper, we e…
As the Internet gradually penetrates into people's daily lives and empowers everyone to demonstrate and exchange opinions and sentiments online, individual citizens are increasingly participating in the agenda-setting of public affairs and the design and implementation of official policies. The current study describes an approach to analyze online public sentiments using social media data and provides an example of Twitter discourse during the 2019 Chinese National Day. Over 300,000 tweets were collected between Sept 30 and Oct 3, and a hybrid method of SVM and dictionary was applied to evalua…
Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar（布巴内斯瓦尔印度理工学院）；G.G Vishwavidyalaya, Central University（G.G大学（中央大学））
Predicting stock market movements is a well-known problem of interest. Now-a-days social media is perfectly representing the public sentiment and opinion about current events. Especially, twitter has attracted a lot of attention from researchers for studying the public sentiments. Stock market prediction on the basis of public sentiments expressed on twitter has been an intriguing field of research. Previous studies have concluded that the aggregate public mood collected from twitter may well be correlated with Dow Jones Industrial Average Index (DJIA). The thesis of this work is to observe ho…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；Qatar Computing Research Institute（卡塔尔计算研究所）；Carnegie Mellon University（卡内基梅隆大学）；Johns Hopkins University（约翰斯·霍普金斯大学）
We describe the Sentiment Analysis in Twitter task, ran as part of SemEval-2014. It is a continuation of the last year's task that ran successfully as part of SemEval-2013. As in 2013, this was the most popular SemEval task; a total of 46 teams contributed 27 submissions for subtask A (21 teams) and 50 submissions for subtask B (44 teams). This year, we introduced three new test sets: (i) regular tweets, (ii) sarcastic tweets, and (iii) LiveJournal sentences. We further tested on (iv) 2013 tweets, and (v) 2013 SMS messages. The highest F1-score on (i) was achieved by NRC-Canada at 86.63 for su…
Analysis of information retrieved from microblogging services such as Twitter can provide valuable insight into public sentiment in a geographic region. This insight can be enriched by visualising information in its geographic context. Two underlying approaches for sentiment analysis are dictionary-based and machine learning. The former is popular for public sentiment analysis, and the latter has found limited use for aggregating public sentiment from Twitter data. The research presented in this paper aims to extend the machine learning approach for aggregating public sentiment. To this end, a…
Understanding the characteristics of public attention and sentiment is an essential prerequisite for appropriate crisis management during adverse health events. This is even more crucial during a pandemic such as COVID-19, as primary responsibility of risk management is not centralized to a single institution, but distributed across society. While numerous studies utilize Twitter data in descriptive or predictive context during COVID-19 pandemic, causal modeling of public attention has not been investigated. In this study, we propose a causal inference approach to discover and quantify causal …
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread devastation throughout the world. In addition to the health and economical impacts, there is an enormous emotional toll associated with the constant stress of daily life with the numerous restrictions in place to combat the pandemic. To better understand the impact of COVID-19, we proposed a framework that utilizes public tweets to derive the sentiments, emotions and discussion topics of the general public in various regions and across multiple timeframes. Using this framework, we study and discuss various research questions relating to COVID-19, nam…
Singapore Management University（新加坡管理大学）；School of Information System（信息系统学院）
Sentiment analysis is a new area in text analytics where it focuses on the analysis and understanding of the emotions from the text patterns. This new form of analysis has been widely adopted in customer relation management especially in the context of complaint management. With increasing level of interest in this technology, more and more companies are adopting it and using it to champion their marketing efforts. However, sentiment analysis using twitter has remained extremely difficult to manage due to the sampling bias. In this paper, we will discuss about the application of using reweight…
Social media have substantially altered the way brands and businesses advertise: Online Social Networks provide brands with more versatile and dynamic channels for advertisement than traditional media (e.g., TV and radio). Levels of engagement in such media are usually measured in terms of content adoption (e.g., likes and retweets) and sentiment, around a given topic. However, sentiment analysis and topic identification are both non-trivial tasks. In this paper, using data collected from Twitter as a case study, we analyze how engagement and sentiment in promoted content spread over a 10-day …
Online social networks have become a major communication platform, where people share their thoughts and opinions about any topic real-time. The short text updates people post in these network contain emotions and moods, which when measured collectively can unveil the public mood at population level and have exciting implications for businesses, governments, and societies. Therefore, there is an urgent need for developing solid methods for accurately measuring moods from large-scale social media data. In this paper, we propose PANAS-t, which measures sentiments from short text updates in Twitt…
The COVID-19 pandemic has created widespread health and economical impacts, affecting millions around the world. To better understand these impacts, we present the TweetCOVID system that offers the capability to understand the public reactions to the COVID-19 pandemic in terms of their sentiments, emotions, topics of interest and controversial discussions, over a range of time periods and locations, using public tweets. We also present three example use cases that illustrates the usefulness of our proposed TweetCOVID system.
Twitter is among the most used online platforms for the political communications, due to the concision of its messages (which is particularly suitable for political slogans) and the quick diffusion of messages. Especially when the argument stimulate the emotionality of users, the content on Twitter is shared with extreme speed and thus studying the tweet sentiment if of utmost importance to predict the evolution of the discussions and the register of the relative narratives. In this article, we present a model able to reproduce the dynamics of the sentiments of tweets related to specific topic…
Social media data can be a very salient source of information during crises. User-generated messages provide a window into people's minds during such times, allowing us insights about their moods and opinions. Due to the vast amounts of such messages, a large-scale analysis of population-wide developments becomes possible. In this paper, we analyze Twitter messages (tweets) collected during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe with regard to their sentiment. This is implemented with a neural network for sentiment analysis using multilingual sentence embeddings. We separate the r…
Macquarie University（麦考瑞大学）；Boston Children’s Hospital（波士顿儿童医院）；Harvard Medical School（哈佛医学院）
Background: Studies examining how sentiment on social media varies depending on timing and location appear to produce inconsistent results, making it hard to design systems that use sentiment to detect localized events for public health applications. Objective: The aim of this study was to measure how common timing and location confounders explain variation in sentiment on Twitter. Methods: Using a dataset of 16.54 million English-language tweets from 100 cities posted between July 13 and November 30, 2017, we estimated the positive and negative sentiment for each of the cities using a diction…
West Windsor-Plainsboro High School South（西温莎-普兰斯堡南高中）
Understanding the relationship between structure and sentiment is essential in highlighting future operations with online social networks. More specifically, within popular conversation on Twitter. This paper provides a development on the relationship between the two variables: structure, defined as the composition of a directed network, and sentiment, a quantified value of the positive/negative connotations of a conversation. We highlight thread sentiment to be inversely proportional to the strength and connectivity of a network. The second portion of this paper highlights differences in quer…
Indian Institute of Technology, Hyderabad（印度海得拉巴理工学院）
As microblogging services like Twitter are becoming more and more influential in today's globalised world, its facets like sentiment analysis are being extensively studied. We are no longer constrained by our own opinion. Others opinions and sentiments play a huge role in shaping our perspective. In this paper, we build on previous works on Twitter sentiment analysis using Distant Supervision. The existing approach requires huge computation resource for analysing large number of tweets. In this paper, we propose techniques to speed up the computation process for sentiment analysis. We use twee…
As a platform, Twitter has been a significant public space for discussion related to the COVID-19 pandemic. Public social media platforms such as Twitter represent important sites of engagement regarding the pandemic and these data can be used by research teams for social, health, and other research. Understanding public opinion about COVID-19 and how information diffuses in social media is important for governments and research institutions. Twitter is a ubiquitous public platform and, as such, has tremendous utility for understanding public perceptions, behavior, and attitudes related to COV…
University of Toronto（多伦多大学）；University of Pittsburgh（匹兹堡大学）；Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）
The study aims to understand Twitter users' discourse and psychological reactions to COVID-19. We use machine learning techniques to analyze about 1.9 million Tweets (written in English) related to coronavirus collected from January 23 to March 7, 2020. A total of salient 11 topics are identified and then categorized into ten themes, including "updates about confirmed cases," "COVID-19 related death," "cases outside China (worldwide)," "COVID-19 outbreak in South Korea," "early signs of the outbreak in New York," "Diamond Princess cruise," "economic impact," "Preventive measures," "authorities…
The consequences of anthropogenic climate change are extensively debated through scientific papers, newspaper articles, and blogs. Newspaper articles may lack accuracy, while the severity of findings in scientific papers may be too opaque for the public to understand. Social media, however, is a forum where individuals of diverse backgrounds can share their thoughts and opinions. As consumption shifts from old media to new, Twitter has become a valuable resource for analyzing current events and headline news. In this research, we analyze tweets containing the word "climate" collected between S…
This paper presents the findings of an exploratory study on the continuously generating Big Data on Twitter related to the sharing of information, news, views, opinions, ideas, feedback, and experiences about the COVID-19 pandemic, with a specific focus on the Omicron variant, which is the globally dominant variant of SARS-CoV-2 at this time. A total of 12028 tweets about the Omicron variant were studied, and the specific characteristics of tweets that were analyzed include - sentiment, language, source, type, and embedded URLs. The findings of this study are manifold. First, from sentiment an…
This work extends the set of works which deal with the popular problem of sentiment analysis in Twitter. It investigates the most popular document ("tweet") representation methods which feed sentiment evaluation mechanisms. In particular, we study the bag-of-words, n-grams and n-gram graphs approaches and for each of them we evaluate the performance of a lexicon-based and 7 learning-based classification algorithms (namely SVM, Naïve Bayesian Networks, Logistic Regression, Multilayer Perceptrons, Best-First Trees, Functional Trees and C4.5) as well as their combinations, using a set of 4451 man…
Social media are becoming an increasingly important source of information about the public mood regarding issues such as elections, Brexit, stock market, etc. In this paper we focus on sentiment classification of Twitter data. Construction of sentiment classifiers is a standard text mining task, but here we address the question of how to properly evaluate them as there is no settled way to do so. Sentiment classes are ordered and unbalanced, and Twitter produces a stream of time-ordered data. The problem we address concerns the procedures used to obtain reliable estimates of performance measur…
In this paper, we present a mainly French coronavirus Twitter dataset that we have been continuously collecting since lockdown restrictions have been enacted in France (in March 17, 2020). We offer our datasets and sentiment analysis annotations to the research community at https://github.com/calciu/COVID19-LockdownFr. They have been obtained using high performance computing (HPC) capabilities of our university's datacenter. We think that our contribution can facilitate analysis of online conversation dynamics reflecting people sentiments when facing severe home confinement restrictions determ…
Investigating and classifying sentiments of social media users towards an item, situation, and system are very popular among the researchers. However, they rarely discuss the underlying socioeconomic factor associations for such sentiments. This study attempts to explore the factors associated with positive and negative sentiments of the people about reopening the economy, in the United States (US) amidst the COVID-19 global crisis. It takes into consideration the situational uncertainties (i.e., changes in work and travel pattern due to lockdown policies), economic downturn and associated tra…
The words we use to talk about the current epidemiological crisis on social media can inform us on how we are conceptualizing the pandemic and how we are reacting to its development. This paper provides an extensive explorative analysis of how the discourse about Covid-19 reported on Twitter changes through time, focusing on the first wave of this pandemic. Based on an extensive corpus of tweets (produced between 20th March and 1st July 2020) first we show how the topics associated with the development of the pandemic changed through time, using topic modeling. Second, we show how the sentimen…
Opinion mining and demographic attribute inference have many applications in social science. In this paper, we propose models to infer daily joint probabilities of multiple latent attributes from Twitter data, such as political sentiment and demographic attributes. Since it is costly and time-consuming to annotate data for traditional supervised classification, we instead propose scalable Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) models for demographic and opinion inference using U.S. Census, national and state political polls, and Cook partisan voting index as population level data. In LLP classi…
Solicited public opinion surveys reach a limited subpopulation of willing participants and are expensive to conduct, leading to poor time resolution and a restricted pool of expert-chosen survey topics. In this study, we demonstrate that unsolicited public opinion polling through sentiment analysis applied to Twitter correlates well with a range of traditional measures, and has predictive power for issues of global importance. We also examine Twitter's potential to canvas topics seldom surveyed, including ideas, personal feelings, and perceptions of commercial enterprises. Two of our major obs…
The social media network phenomenon leads to a massive amount of valuable data that is available online and easy to access. Many users share images, videos, comments, reviews, news and opinions on different social networks sites, with Twitter being one of the most popular ones. Data collected from Twitter is highly unstructured, and extracting useful information from tweets is a challenging task. Twitter has a huge number of Arabic users who mostly post and write their tweets using the Arabic language. While there has been a lot of research on sentiment analysis in English, the amount of resea…
Social media serves as a unified platform for users to express their thoughts on subjects ranging from their daily lives to their opinion on consumer brands and products. These users wield an enormous influence in shaping the opinions of other consumers and influence brand perception, brand loyalty and brand advocacy. In this paper, we analyze the opinion of 19M Twitter users towards 62 popular industries, encompassing 12,898 enterprise and consumer brands, as well as associated subject matter topics, via sentiment analysis of 330M tweets over a period spanning a month. We find that users tend…
Online social media such as Twitter, Facebook, Wikis and Linkedin have made a great impact on the way we consume information in our day to day life. Now it has become increasingly important that we come across appropriate content from the social media to avoid information explosion. In case of Twitter, popular information can be tracked using hashtags. Studying the characteristics of tweets containing hashtags becomes important for a number of tasks, such as breaking news detection, personalized message recommendation, friends recommendation, and sentiment analysis among others. In this paper,…
We conduct a detailed investigation of correlations between real-time expressions of individuals made across the United States and a wide range of emotional, geographic, demographic, and health characteristics. We do so by combining (1) a massive, geo-tagged data set comprising over 80 million words generated over the course of several recent years on the social network service Twitter and (2) annually-surveyed characteristics of all 50 states and close to 400 urban populations. Among many results, we generate taxonomies of states and cities based on their similarities in word use; estimate th…
