族群对国家权力的获取与群体规模
Ethnic Groups' Access to State Power and Group Size
AI总结：
本文研究了族群规模与政治权力获取之间的倒U型关系，揭示了制度和族群构成对政治包容的影响。
摘要：
基于族群的政治不平等现象普遍存在，但其背后的驱动因素仍不明确。本文表明，一个族群的相对规模是其获得中央执行权力的关键相关因素。利用1946年至2021年间181个国家中575个族群的数据，我记录了一个稳健的倒U型关系：中等规模的族群比非常小或非常大的族群更有可能获得政治包容。一个简单的模型解释了这种模式是由于精英在排除带来的冲突风险和分享政治租金的成本之间的权衡的结果。该模型进一步预测——数据证实——倒U型关系在历史上具有竞争性制度的国家最为明显。这些发现为族群构成和制度在塑造族群政治包容模式中的共同作用提供了新的见解。
英文摘要：
Ethnic-based political inequality is widespread, yet its underlying drivers remain poorly understood. This paper shows that an ethnic group's relative size is a key correlate of its access to central executive power. Using data on 575 groups across 181 countries from 1946 to 2021, I document a robust inverted-U-shaped relationship: groups of intermediate size are significantly more likely to gain political inclusion than both very small and very large ones. A simple model explains this pattern as the result of elite trade-offs between the risks of conflict from exclusion and the costs of sharing political rents. The model further predicts-and the data confirm-that the inverted-U is most pronounced in countries with historically competitive institutions. These findings offer new insight into the joint role of ethnic composition and institutions in shaping patterns of ethnic political inclusion.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
