We propose a hypothesis test that allows for many tested restrictions in a heteroskedastic linear regression model. The test compares the conventional F statistic to a critical value that corrects for many restrictions and conditional heteroskedasticity. This correction uses leave-one-out estimation to correctly center the critical value and leave-three-out estimation to appropriately scale it. The large sample properties of the test are established in an asymptotic framework where the number of tested restrictions may be fixed or may grow with the sample size, and can even be proportional to the number of observations. We show that the test is asymptotically valid and has non-trivial asymptotic power against the same local alternatives as the exact F test when the latter is valid. Simulations corroborate these theoretical findings and suggest excellent size control in moderately small samples, even under strong heteroskedasticity.
We propose a new testing procedure of heteroskedasticity in high-dimensional linear regression, where the number of covariates can be larger than the sample size. Our testing procedure is based on residuals of the Lasso. We demonstrate that our test statistic has asymptotic normality under the null hypothesis of homoskedasticity. Simulation results show that the proposed testing procedure obtains accurate empirical sizes and powers. We also present results of real economic data applications.
This paper considers a semiparametric generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (S-GARCH) model. For this model, we first estimate the time-varying long run component for unconditional variance by the kernel estimator, and then estimate the non-time-varying parameters in GARCH-type short run component by the quasi maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE). We show that the QMLE is asymptotically normal with the parametric convergence rate. Next, we construct a Lagrange multiplier test for linear parameter constraint and a portmanteau test for model checking, and obtain their asymptot…
Heteroskedasticity is a statistical anomaly that describes differing variances of error terms in a time series dataset. The presence of heteroskedasticity in data imposes serious challenges for forecasting models and many statistical tests are not valid in the presence of heteroskedasticity. Heteroskedasticity of the data affects the relation between the predictor variable and the outcome, which leads to false positive and false negative decisions in the hypothesis testing. Available approaches to study heteroskedasticity thus far adopt the strategy of accommodating heteroskedasticity in the t…
It is well known that the standard F test is severely affected by heteroskedasticity in unbalanced analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) models. Currently available potential remedies for such a scenario are based on heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimation (HCCME). However, the HCCME approach tends to be liberal in small samples. Therefore, in the present manuscript, we propose a combination of HCCME and a wild bootstrap technique, with the aim of improving the small-sample performance. We precisely state a set of assumptions for the general ANCOVA model and discuss their practica…
This paper develops a consistent heteroskedasticity robust Lagrange Multiplier (LM) type specification test for semiparametric conditional mean models. Consistency is achieved by turning a conditional moment restriction into a growing number of unconditional moment restrictions using series methods. The proposed test statistic is straightforward to compute and is asymptotically standard normal under the null. Compared with the earlier literature on series-based specification tests in parametric models, I rely on the projection property of series estimators and derive a different normalization …
We describe and examine a test for a general class of shape constraints, such as constraints on the signs of derivatives, U-(S-)shape, symmetry, quasi-convexity, log-convexity, $r$-convexity, among others, in a nonparametric framework using partial sums empirical processes. We show that, after a suitable transformation, its asymptotic distribution is a functional of the standard Brownian motion, so that critical values are available. However, due to the possible poor approximation of the asymptotic critical values to the finite sample ones, we also describe a valid bootstrap algorithm.
This paper introduces a Nearly Unstable INteger-valued AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (NU-INARCH) process for dealing with count time series data. It is proved that a proper normalization of the NU-INARCH process endowed with a Skorohod topology weakly converges to a Cox-Ingersoll-Ross diffusion. The asymptotic distribution of the conditional least squares estimator of the correlation parameter is established as a functional of certain stochastic integrals. Numerical experiments based on Monte Carlo simulations are provided to verify the behavior of the asymptotic distribution u…
In this paper, we consider binary response models with linear quantile restrictions. Considerably generalizing previous research on this topic, our analysis focuses on an infinite collection of quantile estimators. We derive a uniform linearisation for the properly standardized empirical quantile process and discover some surprising differences with the setting of continuously observed responses. Moreover, we show that considering quantile processes provides an effective way of estimating binary choice probabilities without restrictive assumptions on the form of the link function, heteroskedas…
In longitudinal panels and other regression models with unobserved effects, fixed effects estimation is often paired with cluster-robust variance estimation (CRVE) in order to account for heteroskedasticity and un-modeled dependence among the errors. CRVE is asymptotically consistent as the number of independent clusters increases, but can be biased downward for sample sizes often found in applied work, leading to hypothesis tests with overly liberal rejection rates. One solution is to use bias-reduced linearization (BRL), which corrects the CRVE so that it is unbiased under a working model, a…
Investigating the main determinants of the mechanical performance of metals is not a simple task. Already known physical inspired qualitative relations between 2D microstructure characteristics and 3D mechanical properties can act as the starting point of the investigation. Isotonic regression allows to take into account ordering relations and leads to more efficient and accurate results when the underlying assumptions actually hold. The main goal in this paper is to test order relations in a model inspired by a materials science application. The statistical estimation procedure is described c…
In this paper we study the problem of testing the null hypothesis that errors from k independent parametrically specified generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models have the same distribution versus a general alternative. First we establish the asymptotic validity of a class of linear test statistics derived from the k residual-based empirical distribution functions. A distinctive feature is that the asymptotic distribution of the test statistics involves terms depending on the distributions of errors and the parameters of the models, and weight functions providin…
Several interesting models for contingency tables are defined by a system of equality and inequality constraints on a suitable set of marginal log-linear parameters. After reviewing the most common difficulties which are intrinsic to order restricted testing problems, we propose two new families of testing procedures, based on similar attempts appeared in the econometric literature, in order to increase the probability of detecting several relevant violations of the supposed order relations. One set of procedures is based on the decomposition of the log-likelihood ratio when testing the given …
A central problem in Binary Hypothesis Testing (BHT) is to determine the optimal tradeoff between the Type I error (referred to as false alarm) and Type II (referred to as miss) error. In this context, the exponential rate of convergence of the optimal miss error probability -- as the sample size tends to infinity -- given some (positive) restrictions on the false alarm probabilities is a fundamental question to address in theory. Considering the more realistic context of a BHT with a finite number of observations, this paper presents a new non-asymptotic result for the scenario with monotonic…
We study Granger causality testing for high-dimensional time series using regularized regressions. To perform proper inference, we rely on heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) estimation of the asymptotic variance and develop the inferential theory in the high-dimensional setting. To recognize the time series data structures we focus on the sparse-group LASSO estimator, which includes the LASSO and the group LASSO as special cases. We establish the debiased central limit theorem for low dimensional groups of regression coefficients and study the HAC estimator of the long-run…
We consider the problem of inference on a regression function at a point when the entire function satisfies a sign or shape restriction under the null. We propose a test that achieves the optimal minimax rate adaptively over a range of Hölder classes, up to a $\log\log n$ term, which we show to be necessary for adaptation. We apply the results to adaptive one-sided tests for the regression discontinuity parameter under a monotonicity restriction, the value of a monotone regression function at the boundary and the proportion of true null hypotheses in a multiple testing problem.
MPI for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Google Research（谷歌研究院）
We propose a new family of specification tests called kernel conditional moment (KCM) tests. Our tests are built on a novel representation of conditional moment restrictions in a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) called conditional moment embedding (CMME). After transforming the conditional moment restrictions into a continuum of unconditional counterparts, the test statistic is defined as the maximum moment restriction (MMR) within the unit ball of the RKHS. We show that the MMR not only fully characterizes the original conditional moment restrictions, leading to consistency in both hyp…
Throughout the last decade, random forests have established themselves as among the most accurate and popular supervised learning methods. While their black-box nature has made their mathematical analysis difficult, recent work has established important statistical properties like consistency and asymptotic normality by considering subsampling in lieu of bootstrapping. Though such results open the door to traditional inference procedures, all formal methods suggested thus far place severe restrictions on the testing framework and their computational overhead precludes their practical scientifi…
In this paper, we introduce a ${\mathcal L}_2$ type test for testing mutual independence and banded dependence structure for high dimensional data. The test is constructed based on the pairwise distance covariance and it accounts for the non-linear and non-monotone dependences among the data, which cannot be fully captured by the existing tests based on either Pearson correlation or rank correlation. Our test can be conveniently implemented in practice as the limiting null distribution of the test statistic is shown to be standard normal. It exhibits excellent finite sample performance in our …
Empirical Bayes Method for Large-Scale Multiple Testing with Heteroscedastic Errors
Seoul National University（首尔大学）；Davidson College（戴维森学院）；University of Maryland at Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩县分校）；Keio University（庆应义塾大学）；University of Texas at Arlington（德克萨斯大学阿灵顿分校）
Many time series exhibit changes both in level and in variability. Generally, it is more important to detect a change in the level, and changing or smoothly evolving variability can confound existing tests. This paper develops a framework for testing for shifts in the level of a series which accommodates the possibility of changing variability. The resulting tests are robust both to heteroskedasticity and serial dependence. They rely on a new functional central limit theorem for dependent random variables whose variance can change or trend in a substantial way. This new result is of independen…
In this paper, we propose a general method for testing inequality restrictions on nonparametric functions. Our framework includes many nonparametric testing problems in a unified framework, with a number of possible applications in auction models, game theoretic models, wage inequality, and revealed preferences. Our test involves a one-sided version of $L_{p}$ functionals of kernel-type estimators $(1\leq p <\infty )$ and is easy to implement in general, mainly due to its recourse to the bootstrap method. The bootstrap procedure is based on nonparametric bootstrap applied to kernel-based test …
A unit root test is proposed for time series with a general nonlinear deterministic trend component. It is shown that asymptotically the pooled OLS estimator of overlapping blocks filters out any trend component that satisfies some Lipschitz condition. Under both fixed-$b$ and small-$b$ block asymptotics, the limiting distribution of the t-statistic for the unit root hypothesis is derived. Nuisance parameter corrections provide heteroskedasticity-robust tests, and serial correlation is accounted for by pre-whitening. A Monte Carlo study that considers slowly varying trends yields both good siz…
Zhang (2019) presented a general estimation approach based on the Gaussian distribution for general parametric models where the likelihood of the data is difficult to obtain or unknown, but the mean and variance-covariance matrix are known. Castilla and Zografos (2021) extended the method to density power divergence-based estimators, which are more robust than the likelihood-based Gaussian estimator against data contamination. In this paper we introduce the restricted minimum density power divergence Gaussian estimator (MDPDGE) and study its main asymptotic properties. Also, we examine it robu…
Rady School of Management（雷迪管理学院）；Department of Mathematics（数学系）；University of California at San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）
We propose a methodology for testing linear hypothesis in high-dimensional linear models. The proposed test does not impose any restriction on the size of the model, i.e. model sparsity or the loading vector representing the hypothesis. Providing asymptotically valid methods for testing general linear functions of the regression parameters in high-dimensions is extremely challenging -- especially without making restrictive or unverifiable assumptions on the number of non-zero elements. We propose to test the moment conditions related to the newly designed restructured regression, where the inp…
We consider the goodness-of fit testing problem for Hölder smooth densities over $\mathbb{R}^d$: given $n$ iid observations with unknown density $p$ and given a known density $p_0$, we investigate how large $ρ$ should be to distinguish, with high probability, the case $p=p_0$ from the composite alternative of all Hölder-smooth densities $p$ such that $\|p-p_0\|_t \geq ρ$ where $t \in [1,2]$. The densities are assumed to be defined over $\mathbb{R}^d$ and to have Hölder smoothness parameter $α>0$. In the present work, we solve the case $α\leq 1$ and handle the case $α>1$ using an additional tec…
We address the issue of semiparametric efficiency in the bivariate regression problem with a highly persistent predictor, where the joint distribution of the innovations is regarded an infinite-dimensional nuisance parameter. Using a structural representation of the limit experiment and exploiting invariance relationships therein, we construct invariant point-optimal tests for the regression coefficient of interest. This approach naturally leads to a family of feasible tests based on the component-wise ranks of the innovations that can gain considerable power relative to existing tests under n…
