Data Analysis for the COVID-19 early dynamics in Northern Italy. The effect of first restrictive measures

Data analysis for the COVID-19 early dynamics in Northern Italy

The COVID-19 epidemics, started in China in January 2020, was recognized to have reached Italy around February 20; recent estimates show that most probably the virus circulated in the country already in January, but was not recognized. Data for the early dynamics of COVID-19 in Northern Italy are analyzed.

Robustly estimating the COVID19 epidemic curve in northern Italy using all-cause mortality

Background: Northern Italy was one of the most impacted areas by COVID. It is now widely assumed that the virus was silently spreading for at least 2 weeks before the first patient was identified. During this silent phase, and in the following weeks when the hospital system was overburdened, data collection was not performed in an accurate enough way to estimate an epidemic curve. With the aim of assessing both the dynamics of the introduction of the virus and the effectiveness of containment measures introduced, we try to reconstruct the epidemic curve using all cause mortality data. Methods:…

Spatial spread of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy using multiscale kinetic transport equations with uncertainty

In this paper we introduce a space-dependent multiscale model to describe the spatial spread of an infectious disease under uncertain data with particular interest in simulating the onset of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy. While virus transmission is ruled by a SEIAR type compartmental model, within our approach the population is given by a sum of commuters moving on a extra-urban scale and non commuters interacting only on the smaller urban scale. A transport dynamic of the commuter population at large spatial scales, based on kinetic equations, is coupled with a diffusion model for non commu…

A Novel Methodology for Epidemic Risk Assessment of COVID-19 outbreak

We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the hazard of the disease, the exposure of the area and the vulnerability of its inhabitants. As an application, we discuss the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. We characterize each of the twenty Italian regions by using available historical data on air pollution, human mobility, winter temperature, housing concentration, health care density, population size and …

2023年意大利伦巴第大区登革热疫情：One-Health视角

The 2023 Dengue Outbreak in Lombardy, Italy: A One-Health Perspective

本文从One-Health视角报告了2023年意大利伦巴第大区一起DENV-1本土登革热疫情，结合血清学筛查、昆虫学调查和建模分析，估计R0为1.31、代际时间18.3天，并强调多部门协同监测对控制虫媒病毒传播的重要性。

Anomalous atmospheric circulation favored the spread of COVID-19 in Europe

The current pandemic caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is having negative health, social and economic consequences worldwide. In Europe, the pandemic started to develop strongly at the end of February and beginning of March 2020. It has subsequently spread over the continent, with special virulence in northern Italy and inland Spain. In this study we show that an unusual persistent anticyclonic situation prevailing in southwestern Europe during February 2020 (i.e. anomalously strong positive phase of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations) could have resulted in favorable conditions, in…