Time series classification using novel techniques has experienced a recent resurgence and growing interest from statisticians, subject-domain scientists, and decision makers in business and industry. This is primarily due to the ever increasing amount of big and complex data produced as a result of technological advances. A motivating example is that of Google trends data, which exhibit highly nonlinear behavior. Although a rich literature exists for addressing this problem, existing approaches mostly rely on first and second order properties of the time series, since they typically assume linearity of the underlying process. Often, these are inadequate for effective classification of nonlinear time series data such as Google Trends data. Given these methodological deficiencies and the abundance of nonlinear time series that persist among real-world phenomena, we introduce an approach that merges higher order spectral analysis (HOSA) with deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for classifying time series. The effectiveness of our approach is illustrated using simulated data and two motivating industry examples that involve Google trends data and electronic device energy consumption data.
Let {X(t)} be a stationary time series with a.e. positive spectrum. Two consequences of that the bispectrum of {X(t)} is real-valued but nonzero: 1) if {X(t)} is also linear, then it is reversible; 2) {X(t),} can not be causal linear. A corollary of the first statement: if {X(t)} is linear, and the skewness of X(0) is nonzero, then third order reversibility implies reversibility. In this paper the notion of bispectrum is of a broader scope.
Xsensor Technology Corp（Xsensor科技公司）；University of Alberta（阿尔伯塔大学）
Multivariate time series classification is a high value and well-known problem in machine learning community. Feature extraction is a main step in classification tasks. Traditional approaches employ hand-crafted features for classification while convolutional neural networks (CNN) are able to extract features automatically. In this paper, we use dilated convolutional neural network for multivariate time series classification. To deploy dilated CNN, a multivariate time series is transformed into an image-like style and stacks of dilated and strided convolutions are applied to extract in and bet…
Most methods for time series classification that attain state-of-the-art accuracy have high computational complexity, requiring significant training time even for smaller datasets, and are intractable for larger datasets. Additionally, many existing methods focus on a single type of feature such as shape or frequency. Building on the recent success of convolutional neural networks for time series classification, we show that simple linear classifiers using random convolutional kernels achieve state-of-the-art accuracy with a fraction of the computational expense of existing methods.
Hybrid LSTM-fully convolutional networks (LSTM-FCN) for time series classification have produced state-of-the-art classification results on univariate time series. We show that replacing the LSTM with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) to create a GRU-fully convolutional network hybrid model (GRU-FCN) can offer even better performance on many time series datasets. The proposed GRU-FCN model outperforms state-of-the-art classification performance in many univariate and multivariate time series datasets. In addition, since the GRU uses a simpler architecture than the LSTM, it has fewer training parame…
Fully convolutional neural networks (FCN) have been shown to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the task of classifying time series sequences. We propose the augmentation of fully convolutional networks with long short term memory recurrent neural network (LSTM RNN) sub-modules for time series classification. Our proposed models significantly enhance the performance of fully convolutional networks with a nominal increase in model size and require minimal preprocessing of the dataset. The proposed Long Short Term Memory Fully Convolutional Network (LSTM-FCN) achieves state-of-the-art perfo…
National University of Singapore（新加坡国立大学）；Peking University（北京大学）；Institute of High Performance Computing, A*STAR（A*STAR高性能计算研究所）
We study the approximation properties of convolutional architectures applied to time series modelling, which can be formulated mathematically as a functional approximation problem. In the recurrent setting, recent results reveal an intricate connection between approximation efficiency and memory structures in the data generation process. In this paper, we derive parallel results for convolutional architectures, with WaveNet being a prime example. Our results reveal that in this new setting, approximation efficiency is not only characterised by memory, but also additional fine structures in the…
Time Series forecasting (univariate and multivariate) is a problem of high complexity due the different patterns that have to be detected in the input, ranging from high to low frequencies ones. In this paper we propose a new model for timeseries prediction that utilizes convolutional layers for feature extraction, a recurrent encoder and a linear autoregressive component. We motivate the model and we test and compare it against a baseline of widely used existing architectures for univariate and multivariate timeseries. The proposed model appears to outperform the baselines in almost every cas…
We present a new convolutional neural network-based time-series model. Typical convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures rely on the use of max-pooling operators in between layers, which leads to reduced resolution at the top layers. Instead, in this work we consider a fully convolutional network (FCN) architecture that uses causal filtering operations, and allows for the rate of the output signal to be the same as that of the input signal. We furthermore propose an undecimated version of the FCN, which we refer to as the undecimated fully convolutional neural network (UFCNN), and is mo…
TOBB University of Economics and Technology（土耳其中东技术大学经济与技术学院）
Even though computational intelligence techniques have been extensively utilized in financial trading systems, almost all developed models use the time series data for price prediction or identifying buy-sell points. However, in this study we decided to use 2-D stock bar chart images directly without introducing any additional time series associated with the underlying stock. We propose a novel algorithmic trading model CNN-BI (Convolutional Neural Network with Bar Images) using a 2-D Convolutional Neural Network. We generated 2-D images of sliding windows of 30-day bar charts for Dow 30 stock…
Deep Learning methods, specifically convolutional neural networks (CNNs), have seen a lot of success in the domain of image-based data, where the data offers a clearly structured topology in the regular lattice of pixels. This 4-neighbourhood topological simplicity makes the application of convolutional masks straightforward for time series data, such as video applications, but many high-dimensional time series data are not organised in regular lattices, and instead values may have adjacency relationships with non-trivial topologies, such as small-world networks or trees. In our application ca…
Huazhong University of Science and Technology（华中科技大学）
Despite the superiority of convolutional neural networks demonstrated in time series modeling and forecasting, it has not been fully explored on the design of the neural network architecture and the tuning of the hyper-parameters. Inspired by the incremental construction strategy for building a random multilayer perceptron, we propose a novel Error-feedback Stochastic Modeling (ESM) strategy to construct a random Convolutional Neural Network (ESM-CNN) for time series forecasting task, which builds the network architecture adaptively. The ESM strategy suggests that random filters and neurons of…
Long Short Term Memory Fully Convolutional Neural Networks (LSTM-FCN) and Attention LSTM-FCN (ALSTM-FCN) have shown to achieve state-of-the-art performance on the task of classifying time series signals on the old University of California-Riverside (UCR) time series repository. However, there has been no study on why LSTM-FCN and ALSTM-FCN perform well. In this paper, we perform a series of ablation tests (3627 experiments) on LSTM-FCN and ALSTM-FCN to provide a better understanding of the model and each of its sub-module. Results from the ablation tests on ALSTM-FCN and LSTM-FCN show that the…
Training deep neural networks often requires careful hyper-parameter tuning and significant computational resources. In this paper, we propose ConvTimeNet (CTN): an off-the-shelf deep convolutional neural network (CNN) trained on diverse univariate time series classification (TSC) source tasks. Once trained, CTN can be easily adapted to new TSC target tasks via a small amount of fine-tuning using labeled instances from the target tasks. We note that the length of convolutional filters is a key aspect when building a pre-trained model that can generalize to time series of different lengths acro…
North Carolina State University（北卡罗来纳州立大学）；Intuit Inc.（财捷公司）
Robust anomaly detection is a requirement for monitoring complex modern systems with applications such as cyber-security, fraud prevention, and maintenance. These systems generate multiple correlated time series that are highly seasonal and noisy. This paper presents a novel unsupervised deep learning architecture for multivariate time series anomaly detection, called Robust Seasonal Multivariate Generative Adversarial Network (RSM-GAN). It extends recent advancements in GANs with adoption of convolutional-LSTM layers and an attention mechanism to produce state-of-the-art performance. We condu…
Time series anomaly detection plays a critical role in automated monitoring systems. Most previous deep learning efforts related to time series anomaly detection were based on recurrent neural networks (RNN). In this paper, we propose a time series segmentation approach based on convolutional neural networks (CNN) for anomaly detection. Moreover, we propose a transfer learning framework that pretrains a model on a large-scale synthetic univariate time series data set and then fine-tunes its weights on small-scale, univariate or multivariate data sets with previously unseen classes of anomalies…
Bigo Inc.（Bigo公司）；Beihang University（北京航空航天大学）；IBM China CIC（IBM中国创新中心）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen（香港中文大学（深圳））
We present a probabilistic forecasting framework based on convolutional neural network for multiple related time series forecasting. The framework can be applied to estimate probability density under both parametric and non-parametric settings. More specifically, stacked residual blocks based on dilated causal convolutional nets are constructed to capture the temporal dependencies of the series. Combined with representation learning, our approach is able to learn complex patterns such as seasonality, holiday effects within and across series, and to leverage those patterns for more accurate for…
We present a method for conditional time series forecasting based on an adaptation of the recent deep convolutional WaveNet architecture. The proposed network contains stacks of dilated convolutions that allow it to access a broad range of history when forecasting, a ReLU activation function and conditioning is performed by applying multiple convolutional filters in parallel to separate time series which allows for the fast processing of data and the exploitation of the correlation structure between the multivariate time series. We test and analyze the performance of the convolutional network …
UNSW（新南威尔士大学）；University of Technology Sydney（悉尼科技大学）；Griffith University（格里菲斯大学）
Modeling complex spatial and temporal correlations in the correlated time series data is indispensable for understanding the traffic dynamics and predicting the future status of an evolving traffic system. Recent works focus on designing complicated graph neural network architectures to capture shared patterns with the help of pre-defined graphs. In this paper, we argue that learning node-specific patterns is essential for traffic forecasting while the pre-defined graph is avoidable. To this end, we propose two adaptive modules for enhancing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) with new capabilit…
Over the past decade, multivariate time series classification has received great attention. We propose transforming the existing univariate time series classification models, the Long Short Term Memory Fully Convolutional Network (LSTM-FCN) and Attention LSTM-FCN (ALSTM-FCN), into a multivariate time series classification model by augmenting the fully convolutional block with a squeeze-and-excitation block to further improve accuracy. Our proposed models outperform most state-of-the-art models while requiring minimum preprocessing. The proposed models work efficiently on various complex multiv…
Southern Methodist University（南卫理公会大学）；Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory（劳伦斯伯克利国家实验室）；University of Texas at Dallas（德克萨斯大学达拉斯分校）；NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory（美国国家航空航天局喷气推进实验室）
There recently has been a surge of interest in developing a new class of deep learning (DL) architectures that integrate an explicit time dimension as a fundamental building block of learning and representation mechanisms. In turn, many recent results show that topological descriptors of the observed data, encoding information on the shape of the dataset in a topological space at different scales, that is, persistent homology of the data, may contain important complementary information, improving both performance and robustness of DL. As convergence of these two emerging ideas, we propose to e…
Recently, with the development of deep learning, end-to-end neural network architectures have been increasingly applied to condition monitoring signals. They have demonstrated superior performance for fault detection and classification, in particular using convolutional neural networks. Even more recently, an extension of the concept of convolution to the concept of kervolution has been proposed with some promising results in image classification tasks. In this paper, we explore the potential of kervolutional neural networks applied to time series data. We demonstrate that using a mixture of c…
Neural Processes (NPs) are a family of conditional generative models that are able to model a distribution over functions, in a way that allows them to perform predictions at test time conditioned on a number of context points. A recent addition to this family, Convolutional Conditional Neural Processes (ConvCNP), have shown remarkable improvement in performance over prior art, but we find that they sometimes struggle to generalize when applied to time series data. In particular, they are not robust to distribution shifts and fail to extrapolate observed patterns into the future. By incorporat…
University of Notre Dame（圣母大学）；NEC Laboratories America, Inc.（NEC美国实验室公司）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
Nowadays, multivariate time series data are increasingly collected in various real world systems, e.g., power plants, wearable devices, etc. Anomaly detection and diagnosis in multivariate time series refer to identifying abnormal status in certain time steps and pinpointing the root causes. Building such a system, however, is challenging since it not only requires to capture the temporal dependency in each time series, but also need encode the inter-correlations between different pairs of time series. In addition, the system should be robust to noise and provide operators with different level…
Time series clustering is a challenging task due to the specific nature of the data. Classical approaches do not perform well and need to be adapted either through a new distance measure or a data transformation. In this paper we investigate the combination of a convolutional autoencoder and a k-medoids algorithm to perfom time series clustering. The convolutional autoencoder allows to extract meaningful features and reduce the dimension of the data, leading to an improvement of the subsequent clustering. Using simulation and energy related data to validate the approach, experimental results s…
Multivariate Time Series (MTS) classification has gained importance over the past decade with the increase in the number of temporal datasets in multiple domains. The current state-of-the-art MTS classifier is a heavyweight deep learning approach, which outperforms the second-best MTS classifier only on large datasets. Moreover, this deep learning approach cannot provide faithful explanations as it relies on post hoc model-agnostic explainability methods, which could prevent its use in numerous applications. In this paper, we present XCM, an eXplainable Convolutional neural network for MTS cla…
In this paper, we use convolutional neural networks to address the problem of model identification for autoregressive moving average time series models. We compare the performance of several neural network architectures, trained on simulated time series, with likelihood based methods, in particular the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria. We find that our neural networks can significantly outperform these likelihood based methods in terms of accuracy and, by orders of magnitude, in terms of speed.
Liverpool John Moores University（利物浦约翰摩尔斯大学）；University of Maryland Medical Center（马里兰大学医学中心）
Gynaecologists and obstetricians visually interpret cardiotocography (CTG) traces using the International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) guidelines to assess the wellbeing of the foetus during antenatal care. This approach has raised concerns among professionals with regards to inter- and intra-variability where clinical diagnosis only has a 30\% positive predictive value when classifying pathological outcomes. Machine learning models, trained with FIGO and other user derived features extracted from CTG traces, have been shown to increase positive predictive capacity and minim…
University of Copenhagen（哥本哈根大学）；Danish Center for Sleep Medicine（丹麦睡眠医学中心）；Rigshospitalet（丹麦国家医院）
Neural networks are becoming more and more popular for the analysis of physiological time-series. The most successful deep learning systems in this domain combine convolutional and recurrent layers to extract useful features to model temporal relations. Unfortunately, these recurrent models are difficult to tune and optimize. In our experience, they often require task-specific modifications, which makes them challenging to use for non-experts. We propose U-Time, a fully feed-forward deep learning approach to physiological time series segmentation developed for the analysis of sleep data. U-Tim…
CRITS: Convolutional Rectifier for Interpretable Time Series Classification
Department of Computer and Systems Sciences, Stockholm University（斯德哥尔摩大学计算机与系统科学系）；Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of Oviedo（奥维多大学计算机科学与工程系）
Wind power prediction is of vital importance in wind power utilization. There have been a lot of researches based on the time series of the wind power or speed, but In fact, these time series cannot express the temporal and spatial changes of wind, which fundamentally hinders the advance of wind power prediction. In this paper, a new kind of feature that can describe the process of temporal and spatial variation is proposed, namely, Spatio-Temporal Features. We first map the data collected at each moment from the wind turbine to the plane to form the state map, namely, the scene, according to …
The monitoring and management of numerous and diverse time series data at Alibaba Group calls for an effective and scalable time series anomaly detection service. In this paper, we propose RobustTAD, a Robust Time series Anomaly Detection framework by integrating robust seasonal-trend decomposition and convolutional neural network for time series data. The seasonal-trend decomposition can effectively handle complicated patterns in time series, and meanwhile significantly simplifies the architecture of the neural network, which is an encoder-decoder architecture with skip connections. This arch…
University of Sevilla（塞维利亚大学）；Pablo de Olavide University（巴勃罗·德·奥拉维德大学）
Processing data streams arriving at high speed requires the development of models that can provide fast and accurate predictions. Although deep neural networks are the state-of-the-art for many machine learning tasks, their performance in real-time data streaming scenarios is a research area that has not yet been fully addressed. Nevertheless, there have been recent efforts to adapt complex deep learning models for streaming tasks by reducing their processing rate. The design of the asynchronous dual-pipeline deep learning framework allows to predict over incoming instances and update the mode…
Personalized Convolutional Dictionary Learning of Physiological Time Series
Centre Borelli（博雷利中心）；Thales AVS（泰雷兹AVS公司）；ENS Paris-Saclay（巴黎萨克雷高等师范学校）；University of Pennsylvania（宾夕法尼亚大学）；CMAP（应用数学与计算机科学中心）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Ecole polytechnique（巴黎综合理工学院）
The study in this paper presents a one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1DCNN) model, designed for the automated detection of obstructive Sleep Apnoea (OSA) captured from single-channel electrocardiogram (ECG) signals. The system provides mechanisms in clinical practice that help diagnose patients suffering with OSA. Using the state-of-the-art in 1DCNNs, a model is constructed using convolutional, max pooling layers and a fully connected Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) consisting of a hidden layer and SoftMax output for classification. The 1DCNN extracts prominent features, which are used…
University of Washington（华盛顿大学）；Cleveland Clinic Foundation（克利夫兰诊所基金会）；Google AI Healthcare（谷歌AI医疗）
Seizure detection from EEGs is a challenging and time consuming clinical problem that would benefit from the development of automated algorithms. EEGs can be viewed as structural time series, because they are multivariate time series where the placement of leads on a patient's scalp provides prior information about the structure of interactions. Commonly used deep learning models for time series don't offer a way to leverage structural information, but this would be desirable in a model for structural time series. To address this challenge, we propose the temporal graph convolutional network (…
The multi-scale, mutli-physics nature of fusion plasmas makes predicting plasma events challenging. Recent advances in deep convolutional neural network architectures (CNN) utilizing dilated convolutions enable accurate predictions on sequences which have long-range, multi-scale characteristics, such as the time-series generated by diagnostic instruments observing fusion plasmas. Here we apply this neural network architecture to the popular problem of disruption prediction in fusion tokamaks, utilizing raw data from a single diagnostic, the Electron Cyclotron Emission imaging (ECEi) diagnostic…
Telefónica Research（西班牙电信研究院）；Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya（加泰罗尼亚理工大学）
We study the use of a time series encoder to learn representations that are useful on data set types with which it has not been trained on. The encoder is formed of a convolutional neural network whose temporal output is summarized by a convolutional attention mechanism. This way, we obtain a compact, fixed-length representation from longer, variable-length time series. We evaluate the performance of the proposed approach on a well-known time series classification benchmark, considering full adaptation, partial adaptation, and no adaptation of the encoder to the new data type. Results show tha…
This article presents a new method for forecasting Value at Risk. Convolutional neural networks can do time series forecasting, since they can learn local patterns in time. A simple modification enables them to forecast not the mean, but arbitrary quantiles of the distribution, and thus allows them to be applied to VaR-forecasting. The proposed model can learn from the price history of different assets, and it seems to produce fairly accurate forecasts.
Recently, reinforcement learning models have achieved great success, completing complex tasks such as mastering Go and other games with higher scores than human players. Many of these models collect considerable data on the tasks and improve accuracy by extracting visual and time-series features using convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks, respectively. However, these networks have very high computational costs because they need to be trained by repeatedly using a large volume of past playing data. In this study, we propose a novel practical approach called reinfor…
In this work, a dense recurrent convolutional neural network (DRCNN) was constructed to detect sleep disorders including arousal, apnea and hypopnea using Polysomnography (PSG) measurement channels provided in the 2018 Physionet challenge database. Our model structure is composed of multiple dense convolutional units (DCU) followed by a bidirectional long-short term memory (LSTM) layer followed by a softmax output layer. The sleep events including sleep stages, arousal regions and multiple types of apnea and hypopnea are manually annotated by experts which enables us to train our proposed netw…
GE Global Research（通用电气全球研究中心）；University of Maryland Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩分校）
We propose a simple but strong baseline for time series classification from scratch with deep neural networks. Our proposed baseline models are pure end-to-end without any heavy preprocessing on the raw data or feature crafting. The proposed Fully Convolutional Network (FCN) achieves premium performance to other state-of-the-art approaches and our exploration of the very deep neural networks with the ResNet structure is also competitive. The global average pooling in our convolutional model enables the exploitation of the Class Activation Map (CAM) to find out the contributing region in the ra…
Kavli IPMU (WPI), University of Tokyo（东京大学卡弗里数物连携宇宙研究机构（世界顶级国际研究中心））
In this work we propose a novel approach to utilize convolutional neural networks for time series forecasting. The time direction of the sequential data with spatial dimensions $D=1,2$ is considered democratically as the input of a spatiotemporal $(D+1)$-dimensional convolutional neural network. Latter then reduces the data stream from $D +1 \to D$ dimensions followed by an incriminator cell which uses this information to forecast the subsequent time step. We empirically compare this strategy to convolutional LSTM's and LSTM's on their performance on the sequential MNIST and the JSB chorals da…
NCSA（美国国家超级计算应用中心）；University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）
We discuss the development of novel deep learning algorithms to enable real-time regression analysis for time series data. We showcase the application of this new method with a timely case study, and then discuss the applicability of this approach to tackle similar challenges across science domains.
Auburn University（奥本大学）；Verizon Media Group (Yahoo!)（威瑞森媒体集团（雅虎））；Amazon.com Inc.（亚马逊公司）
We have proposed to develop a global hybrid deep learning framework to predict the daily prices in the stock market. With representation learning, we derived an embedding called Stock2Vec, which gives us insight for the relationship among different stocks, while the temporal convolutional layers are used for automatically capturing effective temporal patterns both within and across series. Evaluated on S&P 500, our hybrid framework integrates both advantages and achieves better performance on the stock price prediction task than several popular benchmarked models.
With the increased availability of large databases of electronic health records (EHRs) comes the chance of enhancing health risks screening. Most post-marketing detections of adverse drug reaction (ADR) rely on physicians' spontaneous reports, leading to under reporting. To take up this challenge, we develop a scalable model to estimate the effect of multiple longitudinal features (drug exposures) on a rare longitudinal outcome. Our procedure is based on a conditional Poisson model also known as self-controlled case series (SCCS). We model the intensity of outcomes using a convolution between …
Fluctuations in heart rate are intimately tied to changes in the physiological state of the organism. We examine and exploit this relationship by classifying a human subject's wake/sleep status using his instantaneous heart rate (IHR) series. We use a convolutional neural network (CNN) to build features from the IHR series extracted from a whole-night electrocardiogram (ECG) and predict every 30 seconds whether the subject is awake or asleep. Our training database consists of 56 normal subjects, and we consider three different databases for validation; one is private, and two are public with d…
