气候变化对安大略省玉米产量的影响及其对2068年玉米农场收入的影响
Influence Of Climate Change On The Corn Yield In Ontario And Its Impact On Corn Farms Income At The 2068 Horizon
摘要：
我们的研究旨在量化气候变化对安大略省玉米种植的影响，在2068年的地平线上的几个变暖的情况下。它是围绕一个离散时间动态模型的玉米农场收入与每年的时间步长，对应于一个农业周期，从种植到收获。在每个时期，我们根据玉米产量计算收入，玉米产量高度依赖于天气变量。我们还提供了安大略省10个城市的玉米产量的年度分布的可重复的预测。考虑了收获期玉米期货的价格，我们使用49年的历史数据拟合了我们的模型。然后，我们进行样本外的蒙特卡罗模拟，以获得在给定的气候变化情景下的农业收入预测。
英文摘要：
Our study aims at quantifying the impact of climate change on corn farming in Ontario under several warming scenarios at the 2068 horizon. It is articulated around a discrete-time dynamic model of corn farm income with an annual time-step, corresponding to one agricultural cycle from planting to harvest. At each period, we compute the income given the corn yield, which is highly dependent on weather variables. We also provide a reproducible forecast of the yearly distribution of corn yield for 10 cities in Ontario. The price of corn futures at harvest time is taken into account and we fit our model by using 49 years of historical data. We then conduct out-of-sample Monte-Carlo simulations to obtain the farm income forecasts under a given climate change scenario.
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