巴西危机对全球粮食动态的影响--基于波动溢出效应的研究
The Impact of Brazil on Global Grain Dynamics: A Study on Cross-Market Volatility Spillovers
摘要：
巴西在过去15年中崛起为全球大豆和玉米生产大国，从根本上改变了这些商品的全球市场。这可以说是由于适应巴西气候的大豆和玉米品种的发展，使农民能够在同一年大豆后双季玉米。玉米和大豆市场参与者越来越多地从巴西获得基本面价格信息，研究表明，这两个市场已经变得相互融合。然而，人们对每个市场的波动性有多少会溢出到另一个市场却知之甚少。在这篇文章中，我们测量了美国和巴西的第一季玉米，第二季玉米和大豆之间的波动溢出率。研究发现，在双季玉米和大豆产量扩大后，两国之间的关联度增强，波动溢出幅度扩大，波动溢出的方向从双季玉米前美国波动溢出到巴西，到双季玉米后巴西波动溢出到美国。
英文摘要：
Brazil rose as a global powerhouse producer of soybeans and corn over the past 15 years has fundamentally changed global markets in these commodities. This is arguably due to the development of varieties of soybean and corn adapted to climates within Brazil, allowing farmers to double-crop corn after soybeans in the same year. Corn and soybean market participants increasingly look to Brazil for fundamental price information, and studies have shown that the two markets have become cointegrated. However little is known about how much volatility from each market spills over to the other. In this article we measure volatility spillover ratios between U.S. and Brazilian first crop corn, second crop corn, and soybeans. We find that linkages between the two countries increased after double cropping corn after soybeans expanded, volatility spillover magnitudes expanded, and the direction of volatility spillovers flipped from U.S. volatility spilling over to Brazil before double cropping, to Brazil spilling over to U.S. after double cropping.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
