While much attention has been given to the problem of estimating the effect of discrete interventions from observational data, relatively little work has been done in the setting of continuous-valued interventions, such as treatments associated with a dosage parameter. In this paper, we tackle this problem by building on a modification of the generative adversarial networks (GANs) framework. Our model, SCIGAN, is flexible and capable of simultaneously estimating counterfactual outcomes for several different continuous interventions. The key idea is to use a significantly modified GAN model to learn to generate counterfactual outcomes, which can then be used to learn an inference model, using standard supervised methods, capable of estimating these counterfactuals for a new sample. To address the challenges presented by shifting to continuous interventions, we propose a novel architecture for our discriminator - we build a hierarchical discriminator that leverages the structure of the continuous intervention setting. Moreover, we provide theoretical results to support our use of the GAN framework and of the hierarchical discriminator. In the experiments section, we introduce a new semi-synthetic data simulation for use in the continuous intervention setting and demonstrate improvements over the existing benchmark models.
Treatment effects can be estimated from observational data as the difference in potential outcomes. In this paper, we address the challenge of estimating the potential outcome when treatment-dose levels can vary continuously over time. Further, the outcome variable may not be measured at a regular frequency. Our proposed solution represents the treatment response curves using linear time-invariant dynamical systems---this provides a flexible means for modeling response over time to highly variable dose curves. Moreover, for multivariate data, the proposed method: uncovers shared structure in t…
Researchers are often interested in using longitudinal data to estimate the causal effects of hypothetical time-varying treatment interventions on the mean or risk of a future outcome. Standard regression/conditioning methods for confounding control generally fail to recover causal effects when time-varying confounders are themselves affected by past treatment. In such settings, estimators derived from Robins's g-formula may recover time-varying treatment effects provided sufficient covariates are measured to control confounding by unmeasured risk factors. The package gfoRmula implements in R …
The most widely discussed methods for estimating the Average Causal Effect/Average Treatment Effect are those for intervention in discrete binary variables whose value represents intervention/non-intervention groups. On the other hand, methods for intervening in continuous variables independent of data generating models have not been developed. In this study, we give a method for estimating the average causal effect for intervention in continuous variables that can be applied to data of any generating models as long as the causal effect is identifiable. The proposing method is independent of m…
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；KTH Royal Institute of Technology（瑞典皇家理工学院）
Causal discovery from observational and interventional data is challenging due to limited data and non-identifiability: factors that introduce uncertainty in estimating the underlying structural causal model (SCM). Selecting experiments (interventions) based on the uncertainty arising from both factors can expedite the identification of the SCM. Existing methods in experimental design for causal discovery from limited data either rely on linear assumptions for the SCM or select only the intervention target. This work incorporates recent advances in Bayesian causal discovery into the Bayesian o…
Estimating causal models from observational data is a crucial task in data analysis. For continuous-valued data, Shimizu et al. have proposed a linear acyclic non-Gaussian model to understand the data generating process, and have shown that their model is identifiable when the number of data is sufficiently large. However, situations in which continuous and discrete variables coexist in the same problem are common in practice. Most existing causal discovery methods either ignore the discrete data and apply a continuous-valued algorithm or discretize all the continuous data and then apply a dis…
Estimation of causal effects is fundamental in situations were the underlying system will be subject to active interventions. Part of building a causal inference engine is defining how variables relate to each other, that is, defining the functional relationship between variables given conditional dependencies. In this paper, we deviate from the common assumption of linear relationships in causal models by making use of neural autoregressive density estimators and use them to estimate causal effects within the Pearl's do-calculus framework. Using synthetic data, we show that the approach can r…
Trust Your $\nabla$: Gradient-based Intervention Targeting for Causal Discovery
Warsaw University（华沙大学）；IDEAS NCBR；Jagiellonian University（雅盖隆大学）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Helmholtz, TU Munich（慕尼黑工业大学亥姆霍兹中心）；Institute of Mathematics, Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院数学研究所）
Unobserved confounding is one of the main challenges when estimating causal effects. We propose a causal reduction method that, given a causal model, replaces an arbitrary number of possibly high-dimensional latent confounders with a single latent confounder that takes values in the same space as the treatment variable, without changing the observational and interventional distributions the causal model entails. This allows us to estimate the causal effect in a principled way from combined data without relying on the common but often unrealistic assumption that all confounders have been observ…
KTH Royal Institute of Technology（瑞典皇家理工学院）；INRIA Grenoble Rhone-Alpes（法国国家信息与自动化研究所格勒诺布尔罗纳-阿尔卑斯分部）；University of Tokyo（东京大学）；Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory（冷泉港实验室）
We design a self size-estimating feed-forward network (SSFN) using a joint optimization approach for estimation of number of layers, number of nodes and learning of weight matrices. The learning algorithm has a low computational complexity, preferably within few minutes using a laptop. In addition the algorithm has a limited need for human intervention to tune parameters. SSFN grows from a small-size network to a large-size network, guaranteeing a monotonically non-increasing cost with addition of nodes and layers. The learning approach uses judicious a combination of `lossless flow property' …
University of Oxford（牛津大学）；ETH Zurich（苏黎世联邦理工学院）；Technion – Israel Institute of Technology（以色列理工学院）
Estimating the effects of continuous-valued interventions from observational data is a critically important task for climate science, healthcare, and economics. Recent work focuses on designing neural network architectures and regularization functions to allow for scalable estimation of average and individual-level dose-response curves from high-dimensional, large-sample data. Such methodologies assume ignorability (observation of all confounding variables) and positivity (observation of all treatment levels for every covariate value describing a set of units), assumptions problematic in the c…
We present the R-package mgm for the estimation of k-order Mixed Graphical Models (MGMs) and mixed Vector Autoregressive (mVAR) models in high-dimensional data. These are a useful extensions of graphical models for only one variable type, since data sets consisting of mixed types of variables (continuous, count, categorical) are ubiquitous. In addition, we allow to relax the stationarity assumption of both models by introducing time-varying versions MGMs and mVAR models based on a kernel weighting approach. Time-varying models offer a rich description of temporally evolving systems and allow t…
This paper describes OpenIPDM software for modelling the deterioration process of infrastructures using network-scale visual inspection data. In addition to the deterioration state estimates, OpenIPDM provides functions for quantifying the effect of interventions, estimating the service life of an intervention, and generating synthetic data for verification purposes. Each of the aforementioned functions are accessible by an interactive graphical user interface. OpenIPDM is designed based on the research work done on a network of bridges in Quebec province, so that the concepts presented in the…
Analysis of the topology of a graph, regular or bipartite one, can be done by clustering for regular ones or co-clustering for bipartite ones. The Stochastic Block Model and the Latent Block Model are two models, which are very similar for respectively regular and bipartite graphs, based on probabilistic models. Initially developed for binary graphs, these models have been extended to valued networks with optional covariates on the edges. This paper present a implementation of a Variational EM algorithm for Stochastic Block Model and Latent Block Model for some common probability functions, Be…
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute（伦斯勒理工学院）；IBM Research AI（IBM研究院）
This paper considers the problem of estimating the unknown intervention targets in a causal directed acyclic graph from observational and interventional data. The focus is on soft interventions in linear structural equation models (SEMs). Current approaches to causal structure learning either work with known intervention targets or use hypothesis testing to discover the unknown intervention targets even for linear SEMs. This severely limits their scalability and sample complexity. This paper proposes a scalable and efficient algorithm that consistently identifies all intervention targets. The …
Industrial process control systems try to keep an output variable within a given tolerance around a target value. PID control systems have been widely used in industry to control input variables in order to reach this goal. However, this kind of Transfer Function based approach cannot be extended to complex processes where input data might be non-numeric, high dimensional, sparse, etc. In such cases, there is still a need for determining the subspace of input data that produces an output within a given range. This paper presents a non-stochastic heuristic to determine input values for a mathem…
We introduce a method for quantifying the inherent unpredictability of a continuous-valued time series via an extension of the differential Shannon entropy rate. Our extension, the specific entropy rate, quantifies the amount of predictive uncertainty associated with a specific state, rather than averaged over all states. We relate the specific entropy rate to popular `complexity' measures such as Approximate and Sample Entropies. We provide a data-driven approach for estimating the specific entropy rate of an observed time series. Finally, we consider three case studies of estimating specific…
Paris-Dauphine University - PSL（巴黎多芬大学-PSL大学）；CNRS（法国国家科学研究中心）；Ai Square Connect；AdWay Groupe（AdWay集团）
Estimating the Individual Treatment Effect from observational data, defined as the difference between outcomes with and without treatment or intervention, while observing just one of both, is a challenging problems in causal learning. In this paper, we formulate this problem as an inference from hidden variables and enforce causal constraints based on a model of four exclusive causal populations. We propose a new version of the EM algorithm, coined as Expected-Causality-Maximization (ECM) algorithm and provide hints on its convergence under mild conditions. We compare our algorithm to baseline…
Estimating counterfactual treatment outcomes over time in complex multiagent scenarios
Graduate School of Informatics at Nagoya University（名古屋大学信息学研究科）；RIKEN Center for Advanced Intelligence Project（理化学研究所先进智能项目中心）；Graduate School of Informatics at Kyoto University（京都大学信息学研究科）；Graduate School of Engineering at the University of Tokyo（东京大学工学研究科）；Graduate School of Information Science and Technology at Osaka University（大阪大学信息科学与技术研究科）
School of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences（数学与统计科学学院）；Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；Department of Management Sciences（管理科学系）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）
Determining subgroups that respond especially well (or poorly) to specific interventions (medical or policy) requires new supervised learning methods tailored specifically for causal inference. Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) is a recent method that has been documented to perform well on data generating processes with strong confounding of the sort that is plausible in many applications. This paper develops a novel algorithm for fitting the BCF model, which is more efficient than the previously available Gibbs sampler. The new algorithm can be used to initialize independent chains of the existing…
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich（慕尼黑大学）；Siemens CT（西门子中央研究院）
Estimating individual treatment effects from data of randomized experiments is a critical task in causal inference. The Stable Unit Treatment Value Assumption (SUTVA) is usually made in causal inference. However, interference can introduce bias when the assigned treatment on one unit affects the potential outcomes of the neighboring units. This interference phenomenon is known as spillover effect in economics or peer effect in social science. Usually, in randomized experiments or observational studies with interconnected units, one can only observe treatment responses under interference. Hence…
$χ$SPN: Characteristic Interventional Sum-Product Networks for Causal Inference in Hybrid Domains
Indian Institute of Technology Bombay（印度孟买理工学院）；Technical University of Darmstadt（达姆施塔特工业大学）；Hessian Center for Artificial Intelligence (hessian.AI)（黑森人工智能中心）；German Research Center for Artificial Intelligence (DFKI)（德国人工智能研究中心）；Eindhoven University of Technology（埃因霍温理工大学）
Estimating treatment effects plays a crucial role in causal inference, having many real-world applications like policy analysis and decision making. Nevertheless, estimating treatment effects in the longitudinal setting in the presence of hidden confounders remains an extremely challenging problem. Recently, there is a growing body of work attempting to obtain unbiased ITE estimates from time-dynamic observational data by ignoring the possible existence of hidden confounders. Additionally, many existing works handling hidden confounders are not applicable for continuous-time settings. In this …
Season combinatorial intervention predictions with Salt & Peper
Relation Therapeutics（关系治疗公司）；Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems, MIT（麻省理工学院信息与决策系统实验室）；Eric and Wendy Schmidt Center, Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard（麻省理工学院与哈佛大学布罗德研究所埃里克和温迪·施密特中心）
本文针对并发基因干预组合空间巨大的挑战，提出受生物学启发的加性基线方法 Salt 及其扩展的深度学习模型 Peper，用于准确预测成对基因组合对细胞转录组的影响。
Mila-Quebec AI Institute（米拉-魁北克人工智能研究所）；Université de Montréal（蒙特利尔大学）；Max Planck Institute for Intelligent Systems（马克斯·普朗克智能系统研究所）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
We consider the problem of estimating social influence, the effect that a person's behavior has on the future behavior of their peers. The key challenge is that shared behavior between friends could be equally explained by influence or by two other confounding factors: 1) latent traits that caused people to both become friends and engage in the behavior, and 2) latent preferences for the behavior. This paper addresses the challenges of estimating social influence with three contributions. First, we formalize social influence as a causal effect, one which requires inferences about hypothetical …
