气候变化下基于知识的文明模式
A knowledge-based model of civilization under climate change
摘要：
文明产生知识，知识是文明发展的动力。一个宏观模型的文明，占人口，能源消耗和环境条件的知识生产的影响。该模型包括世界人口的动态方程，文明中流通的知识量，化石燃料在总能源消耗中的份额，大气CO2浓度和全球平均表面温度。考虑了知识生产中的能量耗散和知识的直接损失。该模型使用每个变量的历史数据进行校准。计算了大约90个场景。结果表明，有两个控制参数-人口对温度上升的敏感性和知识损失系数-这决定了文明的未来。在这些参数的二维空间中，有一个可持续发展的区域和一个失去稳定的区域。计算表明，文明正好位于分隔这些区域的临界曲线上，即稳定的边缘。一个小小的偏差最终可能导致100多亿人的稳定状态，或者文明的完全灭绝。不存在中间稳定状态。
英文摘要：
Civilization produces knowledge, which acts as the driving force of its development. A macro-model of civilization that accounts for the effect of knowledge production on population, energy consumption and environmental conditions is developed. The model includes dynamic equations for world population, amount of knowledge circulating in civilization, the share of fossil fuels in total energy consumption, atmospheric CO2 concentration, and global mean surface temperature. Energy dissipation in knowledge production and direct loss of knowledge are taken into account. The model is calibrated using historical data for each variable. About 90 scenarios were calculated. It was shown that there are two control parameters - sensitivity of the population to temperature rise and coefficient of knowledge loss - which determine the future of civilization. In the two-dimensional space of these parameters, there is an area of sustainable development and an area of loss of stability. Calculations show that civilization is located just on the critical curve separating these areas, that is, at the edge of stability. A small deviation can ultimately lead either to a steady state of 10+ billion people or to the complete extinction of civilization. There are no intermediate steady states.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
