We investigate the challenge of multi-output learning, where the goal is to learn a vector-valued function based on a supervised data set. This includes a range of important problems in Machine Learning including multi-target regression, multi-class classification and multi-label classification. We begin our analysis by introducing the self-bounding Lipschitz condition for multi-output loss functions, which interpolates continuously between a classical Lipschitz condition and a multi-dimensional analogue of a smoothness condition. We then show that the self-bounding Lipschitz condition gives rise to optimistic bounds for multi-output learning, which are minimax optimal up to logarithmic factors. The proof exploits local Rademacher complexity combined with a powerful minoration inequality due to Srebro, Sridharan and Tewari. As an application we derive a state-of-the-art generalization bound for multi-class gradient boosting.
Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）；Trinity College Dublin（都柏林圣三一学院）
The design of effective online caching policies is an increasingly important problem for content distribution networks, online social networks and edge computing services, among other areas. This paper proposes a new algorithmic toolbox for tackling this problem through the lens of optimistic online learning. We build upon the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) framework which is developed further here to include predictions for the file requests, and we design online caching algorithms for bipartite networks with fixed-size caches or elastic leased caches subject to time-average budget cons…
Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）；Trinity College Dublin（都柏林圣三一学院）
The design of effective online caching policies is an increasingly important problem for content distribution networks, online social networks and edge computing services, among other areas. This paper proposes a new algorithmic toolbox for tackling this problem through the lens of \emph{optimistic} online learning. We build upon the Follow-the-Regularized-Leader (FTRL) framework, which is developed further here to include predictions for the file requests, and we design online caching algorithms for bipartite networks with pre-reserved or dynamic storage subject to time-average budget constra…
Delft University of Technology（代尔夫特理工大学）；Tata Institute of Fundamental Research（塔塔基础研究所）；Amazon（亚马逊）
We take a systematic look at the problem of storing whole files in a cache with limited capacity in the context of optimistic learning, where the caching policy has access to a prediction oracle (provided by, e.g., a Neural Network). The successive file requests are assumed to be generated by an adversary, and no assumption is made on the accuracy of the oracle. In this setting, we provide a universal lower bound for prediction-assisted online caching and proceed to design a suite of policies with a range of performance-complexity trade-offs. All proposed policies offer sublinear regret bounds…
It is well known that in stochastic multi-armed bandits (MAB), the sample mean of an arm is typically not an unbiased estimator of its true mean. In this paper, we decouple three different sources of this selection bias: adaptive \emph{sampling} of arms, adaptive \emph{stopping} of the experiment, and adaptively \emph{choosing} which arm to study. Through a new notion called ``optimism'' that captures certain natural monotonic behaviors of algorithms, we provide a clean and unified analysis of how optimistic rules affect the sign of the bias. The main takeaway message is that optimistic sampli…
LTCI, Télécom Paris, IP Paris（LTCI，巴黎电信，巴黎理工学院）；INRIA - Département d’Informatique de l’ENS, PSL（法国国家信息与自动化研究所 - 巴黎高等师范学院计算机系，巴黎文理研究大学）；INRAE, MIAT, Université de Toulouse（法国国家农业食品与环境研究院，图卢兹大学）；Department of Computer Science, Aalto University（阿尔托大学计算机科学系）
A powerful and flexible approach to structured prediction consists in embedding the structured objects to be predicted into a feature space of possibly infinite dimension by means of output kernels, and then, solving a regression problem in this output space. A prediction in the original space is computed by solving a pre-image problem. In such an approach, the embedding, linked to the target loss, is defined prior to the learning phase. In this work, we propose to jointly learn a finite approximation of the output embedding and the regression function into the new feature space. For that purp…
Microsoft Research（微软研究院）；Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；University of Southern California（南加州大学）
We study adaptive regret bounds in terms of the variation of the losses (the so-called path-length bounds) for both multi-armed bandit and more generally linear bandit. We first show that the seemingly suboptimal path-length bound of (Wei and Luo, 2018) is in fact not improvable for adaptive adversary. Despite this negative result, we then develop two new algorithms, one that strictly improves over (Wei and Luo, 2018) with a smaller path-length measure, and the other which improves over (Wei and Luo, 2018) for oblivious adversary when the path-length is large. Our algorithms are based on the w…
TU Kaiserslautern（凯泽斯劳滕工业大学）；University of Birmingham（伯明翰大学）
In machine learning we often encounter structured output prediction problems (SOPPs), i.e. problems where the output space admits a rich internal structure. Application domains where SOPPs naturally occur include natural language processing, speech recognition, and computer vision. Typical SOPPs have an extremely large label set, which grows exponentially as a function of the size of the output. Existing generalization analysis implies generalization bounds with at least a square-root dependency on the cardinality $d$ of the label set, which can be vacuous in practice. In this paper, we signif…
University of Liège（列日大学）；Aristotle University of Thessaloniki（塞萨洛尼基亚里士多德大学）；Katholieke Universiteit Leuven（鲁汶天主教大学）
Within machine learning, the supervised learning field aims at modeling the input-output relationship of a system, from past observations of its behavior. Decision trees characterize the input-output relationship through a series of nested $if-then-else$ questions, the testing nodes, leading to a set of predictions, the leaf nodes. Several of such trees are often combined together for state-of-the-art performance: random forest ensembles average the predictions of randomized decision trees trained independently in parallel, while tree boosting ensembles train decision trees sequentially to ref…
Margin-based structured prediction commonly uses a maximum loss over all possible structured outputs \cite{Altun03,Collins04b,Taskar03}. In natural language processing, recent work \cite{Zhang14,Zhang15} has proposed the use of the maximum loss over random structured outputs sampled independently from some proposal distribution. This method is linear-time in the number of random structured outputs and trivially parallelizable. We study this family of loss functions in the PAC-Bayes framework under Gaussian perturbations \cite{McAllester07}. Under some technical conditions and up to statistical…
Institute for Big Data Analytics, Dalhousie University（达尔豪斯大学大数据分析研究所）；Institute for Computer Science, Polish Academy of Sciences（波兰科学院计算机科学研究所）
Transportation modes prediction is a fundamental task for decision making in smart cities and traffic management systems. Traffic policies designed based on trajectory mining can save money and time for authorities and the public. It may reduce the fuel consumption and commute time and moreover, may provide more pleasant moments for residents and tourists. Since the number of features that may be used to predict a user transportation mode can be substantial, finding a subset of features that maximizes a performance measure is worth investigating. In this work, we explore wrapper and informatio…
We consider the use of no-regret algorithms to compute equilibria for particular classes of convex-concave games. While standard regret bounds would lead to convergence rates on the order of $O(T^{-1/2})$, recent work \citep{RS13,SALS15} has established $O(1/T)$ rates by taking advantage of a particular class of optimistic prediction algorithms. In this work we go further, showing that for a particular class of games one achieves a $O(1/T^2)$ rate, and we show how this applies to the Frank-Wolfe method and recovers a similar bound \citep{D15}. We also show that such no-regret techniques can ev…
Bandit Convex Optimization with Gradient Prediction Adaptivity
Department of Mathematics, National University of Singapore, Singapore（新加坡国立大学数学系）；Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, India（印度理工学院德里分校计算机科学与工程系）；Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National University of Singapore, Singapore（新加坡国立大学电子与计算机工程系）
Ghent University – imec（根特大学–imec）；Ghent University Hospital（根特大学医院）；Analytical Minds Ltd.（Analytical Minds有限公司）
Information extracted from electrohysterography recordings could potentially prove to be an interesting additional source of information to estimate the risk on preterm birth. Recently, a large number of studies have reported near-perfect results to distinguish between recordings of patients that will deliver term or preterm using a public resource, called the Term/Preterm Electrohysterogram database. However, we argue that these results are overly optimistic due to a methodological flaw being made. In this work, we focus on one specific type of methodological flaw: applying over-sampling befo…
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology（阿卜杜拉国王科技大学）；Vanderbilt University（范德堡大学）；Suning Commerce R&D Center USA, Inc（苏宁美国研发中心）；Beijing Jiaotong University（北京交通大学）；New York University Abu Dhabi（纽约大学阿布扎比分校）；National Time Service Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院国家授时中心）；Graduate University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院研究生院）
We propose a novel semi-supervised structured output prediction method based on local linear regression in this paper. The existing semi-supervise structured output prediction methods learn a global predictor for all the data points in a data set, which ignores the differences of local distributions of the data set, and the effects to the structured output prediction. To solve this problem, we propose to learn the missing structured outputs and local predictors for neighborhoods of different data points jointly. Using the local linear regression strategy, in the neighborhood of each data point…
Multi-output prediction deals with the prediction of several targets of possibly diverse types. One way to address this problem is the so called problem transformation method. This method is often used in multi-label learning, but can also be used for multi-output prediction due to its generality and simplicity. In this paper, we introduce an algorithm that uses the problem transformation method for multi-output prediction, while simultaneously learning the dependencies between target variables in a sparse and interpretable manner. In a first step, predictions are obtained for each target indi…
Conditional Restricted Boltzmann Machines (CRBMs) are rich probabilistic models that have recently been applied to a wide range of problems, including collaborative filtering, classification, and modeling motion capture data. While much progress has been made in training non-conditional RBMs, these algorithms are not applicable to conditional models and there has been almost no work on training and generating predictions from conditional RBMs for structured output problems. We first argue that standard Contrastive Divergence-based learning may not be suitable for training CRBMs. We then identi…
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid（马德里卡洛斯三世大学）；University of Sheffield（谢菲尔德大学）
We present a novel extension of multi-output Gaussian processes for handling heterogeneous outputs. We assume that each output has its own likelihood function and use a vector-valued Gaussian process prior to jointly model the parameters in all likelihoods as latent functions. Our multi-output Gaussian process uses a covariance function with a linear model of coregionalisation form. Assuming conditional independence across the underlying latent functions together with an inducing variable framework, we are able to obtain tractable variational bounds amenable to stochastic variational inference…
Accurate time series prediction over long future horizons is challenging and of great interest to both practitioners and academics. As a well-known intelligent algorithm, the standard formulation of Support Vector Regression (SVR) could be taken for multi-step-ahead time series prediction, only relying either on iterated strategy or direct strategy. This study proposes a novel multiple-step-ahead time series prediction approach which employs multiple-output support vector regression (M-SVR) with multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) prediction strategy. In addition, the rank of three leading p…
Predicting structured outputs can be computationally onerous due to the combinatorially large output spaces. In this paper, we focus on reducing the prediction time of a trained black-box structured classifier without losing accuracy. To do so, we train a speedup classifier that learns to mimic a black-box classifier under the learning-to-search approach. As the structured classifier predicts more examples, the speedup classifier will operate as a learned heuristic to guide search to favorable regions of the output space. We present a mistake bound for the speedup classifier and identify infer…
A deep neural network model is a powerful framework for learning representations. Usually, it is used to learn the relation $x \to y$ by exploiting the regularities in the input $x$. In structured output prediction problems, $y$ is multi-dimensional and structural relations often exist between the dimensions. The motivation of this work is to learn the output dependencies that may lie in the output data in order to improve the prediction accuracy. Unfortunately, feedforward networks are unable to exploit the relations between the outputs. In order to overcome this issue, we propose in this pap…
University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign（伊利诺伊大学厄巴纳-香槟分校）；Google（谷歌）
Deep structured models are widely used for tasks like semantic segmentation, where explicit correlations between variables provide important prior information which generally helps to reduce the data needs of deep nets. However, current deep structured models are restricted by oftentimes very local neighborhood structure, which cannot be increased for computational complexity reasons, and by the fact that the output configuration, or a representation thereof, cannot be transformed further. Very recent approaches which address those issues include graphical model inference inside deep nets so a…
In structured output prediction tasks, labeling ground-truth training output is often expensive. However, for many tasks, even when the true output is unknown, we can evaluate predictions using a scalar reward function, which may be easily assembled from human knowledge or non-differentiable pipelines. But searching through the entire output space to find the best output with respect to this reward function is typically intractable. In this paper, we instead use efficient truncated randomized search in this reward function to train structured prediction energy networks (SPENs), which provide e…
College of Computing, Georgia Institute of Technology（佐治亚理工学院计算学院）
Conditional modeling x \to y is a central problem in machine learning. A substantial research effort is devoted to such modeling when x is high dimensional. We consider, instead, the case of a high dimensional y, where x is either low dimensional or high dimensional. Our approach is based on selecting a small subset y_L of the dimensions of y, and proceed by modeling (i) x \to y_L and (ii) y_L \to y. Composing these two models, we obtain a conditional model x \to y that possesses convenient statistical properties. Multi-label classification and multivariate regression experiments on several da…
Arcada University of Applied Sciences（阿卡达应用科学大学）；Nokia Solutions and Networks Group（诺基亚通信网络集团）；The University of Iowa（爱荷华大学）
Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing the rate of False Positives, and other problem-specific tasks in applied Machine Learning. Many real problems have heteroscedastic stochastic outputs, which explains the need of input-dependent prediction intervals. This paper proposes to estimate the input-dependent prediction intervals by a separate Extreme Learning Machine model, using variance of its pred…
Stellenbosch University（斯泰伦博斯大学）；African Institute for Mathematical Sciences（非洲数学科学研究所）
We propose a method for combining probabilistic outputs of classifiers to make a single consensus class prediction when no further information about the individual classifiers is available, beyond that they have been trained for the same task. The lack of relevant prior information rules out typical applications of Bayesian or Dempster-Shafer methods, and the default approach here would be methods based on the principle of indifference, such as the sum or product rule, which essentially weight all classifiers equally. In contrast, our approach considers the diversity between the outputs of the…
Sophisticated trajectory prediction models that effectively mimic team dynamics have many potential uses for sports coaches, broadcasters and spectators. However, through experiments on soccer data we found that it can be surprisingly challenging to train a deep learning model for player trajectory prediction which outperforms linear extrapolation on average distance between predicted and true future trajectories. We propose and test a novel method for improving training by predicting a sparse trajectory and interpolating using constant acceleration, which improves performance for several mode…
In this paper we study output coding for multi-label prediction. For a multi-label output coding to be discriminative, it is important that codewords for different label vectors are significantly different from each other. In the meantime, unlike in traditional coding theory, codewords in output coding are to be predicted from the input, so it is also critical to have a predictable label encoding. To find output codes that are both discriminative and predictable, we first propose a max-margin formulation that naturally captures these two properties. We then convert it to a metric learning form…
University of Wisconsin-Madison（威斯康星大学麦迪逊分校）；Raymond Corporation（雷蒙德公司）
Prediction of events such as part replacement and failure events plays a critical role in reliability engineering. Event stream data are commonly observed in manufacturing and teleservice systems. Designing predictive models for individual units based on such event streams is challenging and an under-explored problem. In this work, we propose a non-parametric prognostic framework for individualized event prediction based on the inhomogeneous Poisson processes with a multivariate Gaussian convolution process (MGCP) prior on the intensity functions. The MGCP prior on the intensity functions of t…
Motivated by Supervised Opinion Analysis, we propose a novel framework devoted to Structured Output Learning with Abstention (SOLA). The structure prediction model is able to abstain from predicting some labels in the structured output at a cost chosen by the user in a flexible way. For that purpose, we decompose the problem into the learning of a pair of predictors, one devoted to structured abstention and the other, to structured output prediction. To compare fully labeled training data with predictions potentially containing abstentions, we define a wide class of asymmetric abstention-aware…
IEETA/DETI（电子与信息工程研究院/电子、电信与信息工程系）；University of Aveiro（阿威罗大学）
Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) is a set of distribution-free and model agnostic algorithms devised to predict with a user-defined confidence with coverage guarantee. Instead of having point predictions, i.e., a real number in the case of regression or a single class in multi class classification, models calibrated using ICP output an interval or a set of classes, respectively. ICP takes special importance in high-risk settings where we want the true output to belong to the prediction set with high probability. As an example, a classification model might output that given a magnetic reson…
We consider a framework for structured prediction based on search in the space of complete structured outputs. Given a structured input, an output is produced by running a time-bounded search procedure guided by a learned cost function, and then returning the least cost output uncovered during the search. This framework can be instantiated for a wide range of search spaces and search procedures, and easily incorporates arbitrary structured-prediction loss functions. In this paper, we make two main technical contributions. First, we define the limited-discrepancy search space over structured ou…
Recurrent neural networks and sequence to sequence models require a predetermined length for prediction output length. Our model addresses this by allowing the network to predict a variable length output in inference. A new loss function with a tailored gradient computation is developed that trades off prediction accuracy and output length. The model utilizes a function to determine whether a particular output at a time should be evaluated or not given a predetermined threshold. We evaluate the model on the problem of predicting the prices of securities. We find that the model makes longer pre…
In its simplest form, the traffic flow prediction problem is restricted to predicting a single time-step into the future. Multi-step traffic flow prediction extends this set-up to the case where predicting multiple time-steps into the future based on some finite history is of interest. This problem is significantly more difficult than its single-step variant and is known to suffer from degradation in predictions as the time step increases. In this paper, two approaches to improve multi-step traffic flow prediction performance in recursive and multi-output settings are introduced. In particular…
Gaussian process model for vector-valued function has been shown to be useful for multi-output prediction. The existing method for this model is to re-formulate the matrix-variate Gaussian distribution as a multivariate normal distribution. Although it is effective in many cases, re-formulation is not always workable and is difficult to apply to other distributions because not all matrix-variate distributions can be transformed to respective multivariate distributions, such as the case for matrix-variate Student$-t$ distribution. In this paper, we propose a unified framework which is used not …
Permutation invariant multi-output Gaussian Processes for drug combination prediction in cancer
MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge（剑桥大学医学研究委员会生物统计学单元）；Oslo Centre for Biostatistics and Epidemiology (OCBE), University of Oslo（奥斯陆大学奥斯陆生物统计学与流行病学中心）；Broad Institute of MIT & Harvard（麻省理工学院与哈佛大学博德研究所）；CRUK Cambridge Centre Ovarian Programme（英国癌症研究剑桥中心卵巢项目）；Cambridge Institute of Therapeutic Immunology and Infectious Disease (CITIID)（剑桥治疗免疫学与传染病研究所）
In structured prediction, the goal is to jointly predict many output variables that together encode a structured object -- a path in a graph, an entity-relation triple, or an ordering of objects. Such a large output space makes learning hard and requires vast amounts of labeled data. Different approaches leverage alternate sources of supervision. One approach -- entropy regularization -- posits that decision boundaries should lie in low-probability regions. It extracts supervision from unlabeled examples, but remains agnostic to the structure of the output space. Conversely, neuro-symbolic app…
Imperial College London（帝国理工学院）；University of Genova（热那亚大学）；Istituto Italiano di Tecnologia（意大利理工学院）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；INRIA（法国国家信息与自动化研究所）；École Normale Supérieure（巴黎高等师范学院）；PSL Research（巴黎文理研究大学）
We propose and analyze a novel theoretical and algorithmic framework for structured prediction. While so far the term has referred to discrete output spaces, here we consider more general settings, such as manifolds or spaces of probability measures. We define structured prediction as a problem where the output space lacks a vectorial structure. We identify and study a large class of loss functions that implicitly defines a suitable geometry on the problem. The latter is the key to develop an algorithmic framework amenable to a sharp statistical analysis and yielding efficient computations. Wh…
Aalto University（阿尔托大学）；HIIT（赫尔辛基信息技术研究所）；University of Helsinki（赫尔辛基大学）；Universidad Carlos III de Madrid（马德里卡洛斯三世大学）
Multi-output inference tasks, such as multi-label classification, have become increasingly important in recent years. A popular method for multi-label classification is classifier chains, in which the predictions of individual classifiers are cascaded along a chain, thus taking into account inter-label dependencies and improving the overall performance. Several varieties of classifier chain methods have been introduced, and many of them perform very competitively across a wide range of benchmark datasets. However, scalability limitations become apparent on larger datasets when modeling a fully…
