Efficient methods to evaluate new algorithms are critical for improving interactive bandit and reinforcement learning systems such as recommendation systems. A/B tests are reliable, but are time- and money-consuming, and entail a risk of failure. In this paper, we develop an alternative method, which predicts the performance of algorithms given historical data that may have been generated by a different algorithm. Our estimator has the property that its prediction converges in probability to the true performance of a counterfactual algorithm at a rate of $\sqrt{N}$, as the sample size $N$ increases. We also show a correct way to estimate the variance of our prediction, thus allowing the analyst to quantify the uncertainty in the prediction. These properties hold even when the analyst does not know which among a large number of potentially important state variables are actually important. We validate our method by a simulation experiment about reinforcement learning. We finally apply it to improve advertisement design by a major advertisement company. We find that our method produces smaller mean squared errors than state-of-the-art methods.
Guangdong University of Technology（广东工业大学）；Peng Cheng Laboratory（鹏城实验室）；Tufts University（塔夫茨大学）；Tencent Technology (SZ) Co., Ltd.（腾讯科技（深圳）有限公司）
The recommendation system, relying on historical observational data to model the complex relationships among the users and items, has achieved great success in real-world applications. Selection bias is one of the most important issues of the existing observational data based approaches, which is actually caused by multiple types of unobserved exposure strategies (e.g. promotions and holiday effects). Though various methods have been proposed to address this problem, they are mainly relying on the implicit debiasing techniques but not explicitly modeling the unobserved exposure strategies. By …
Peking University（北京大学）；University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Beijing Technology and Business University（北京工商大学）
Bias is a common problem inherent in recommender systems, which is entangled with users' preferences and poses a great challenge to unbiased learning. For debiasing tasks, the doubly robust (DR) method and its variants show superior performance due to the double robustness property, that is, DR is unbiased when either imputed errors or learned propensities are accurate. However, our theoretical analysis reveals that DR usually has a large variance. Meanwhile, DR would suffer unexpectedly large bias and poor generalization caused by inaccurate imputed errors and learned propensities, which usua…
Arizona State University（亚利桑那州立大学）；City University of Hong Kong（香港城市大学）
Recommender systems aim to recommend new items to users by learning user and item representations. In practice, these representations are highly entangled as they consist of information about multiple factors, including user's interests, item attributes along with confounding factors such as user conformity, and item popularity. Considering these entangled representations for inferring user preference may lead to biased recommendations (e.g., when the recommender model recommends popular items even if they do not align with the user's interests). Recent research proposes to debias by modeling …
Balancing Unobserved Confounding with a Few Unbiased Ratings in Debiased Recommendations
Peking University（北京大学）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；University of California, San Diego（加州大学圣地亚哥分校）；Beijing Technology and Business University（北京工商大学）
Recent work in recommender systems has emphasized the importance of fairness, with a particular interest in bias and transparency, in addition to predictive accuracy. In this paper, we focus on the state of the art pairwise ranking model, Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR), which has previously been found to outperform pointwise models in predictive accuracy, while also being able to handle implicit feedback. Specifically, we address two limitations of BPR: (1) BPR is a black box model that does not explain its outputs, thus limiting the user's trust in the recommendations, and the analyst's …
We model online recommendation systems using the hidden Markov multi-state restless multi-armed bandit problem. To solve this we present Monte Carlo rollout policy. We illustrate numerically that Monte Carlo rollout policy performs better than myopic policy for arbitrary transition dynamics with no specific structure. But, when some structure is imposed on the transition dynamics, myopic policy performs better than Monte Carlo rollout policy.
Microsoft Research, Redmond（微软研究院（雷德蒙德））；University of Massachusetts, Amherst（马萨诸塞大学阿默斯特分校）；Microsoft Research, New York（微软研究院（纽约））；Microsoft, Redmond（微软（雷德蒙德））
This paper studies the evaluation of policies that recommend an ordered set of items (e.g., a ranking) based on some context---a common scenario in web search, ads, and recommendation. We build on techniques from combinatorial bandits to introduce a new practical estimator that uses logged data to estimate a policy's performance. A thorough empirical evaluation on real-world data reveals that our estimator is accurate in a variety of settings, including as a subroutine in a learning-to-rank task, where it achieves competitive performance. We derive conditions under which our estimator is unbia…
London School of Economics and Political Science（伦敦政治经济学院）；North Carolina State University（北卡罗来纳州立大学）；Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）
Off-policy evaluation learns a target policy's value with a historical dataset generated by a different behavior policy. In addition to a point estimate, many applications would benefit significantly from having a confidence interval (CI) that quantifies the uncertainty of the point estimate. In this paper, we propose a novel deeply-debiasing procedure to construct an efficient, robust, and flexible CI on a target policy's value. Our method is justified by theoretical results and numerical experiments. A Python implementation of the proposed procedure is available at https://github.com/RunzheS…
Users of music streaming, video streaming, news recommendation, and e-commerce services often engage with content in a sequential manner. Providing and evaluating good sequences of recommendations is therefore a central problem for these services. Prior reweighting-based counterfactual evaluation methods either suffer from high variance or make strong independence assumptions about rewards. We propose a new counterfactual estimator that allows for sequential interactions in the rewards with lower variance in an asymptotically unbiased manner. Our method uses graphical assumptions about the cau…
Contextual Bandits find important use cases in various real-life scenarios such as online advertising, recommendation systems, healthcare, etc. However, most of the algorithms use flat feature vectors to represent context whereas, in the real world, there is a varying number of objects and relations among them to model in the context. For example, in a music recommendation system, the user context contains what music they listen to, which artists create this music, the artist albums, etc. Adding richer relational context representations also introduces a much larger context space making explor…
So far, most research on recommender systems focused on maintaining long-term user engagement and satisfaction, by promoting relevant and personalized content. However, it is still very challenging to evaluate the quality and the reliability of this content. In this paper, we propose FEBR (Expert-Based Recommendation Framework), an apprenticeship learning framework to assess the quality of the recommended content on online platforms. The framework exploits the demonstrated trajectories of an expert (assumed to be reliable) in a recommendation evaluation environment, to recover an unknown utili…
A large number of online services provide automated recommendations to help users to navigate through a large collection of items. New items (products, videos, songs, advertisements) are suggested on the basis of the user's past history and --when available-- her demographic profile. Recommendations have to satisfy the dual goal of helping the user to explore the space of available items, while allowing the system to probe the user's preferences. We model this trade-off using linearly parametrized multi-armed bandits, propose a policy and prove upper and lower bounds on the cumulative "reward"…
Ranking metrics are a family of metrics largely used to evaluate recommender systems. However they typically suffer from the fact the reward is affected by the order in which recommended items are displayed to the user. A classical way to overcome this position bias is to uniformly shuffle a proportion of the recommendations, but this method may result in a bad user experience. It is nevertheless common to use a stochastic policy to generate the recommendations, and we suggest a new method to overcome the position bias, by leveraging the stochasticity of the policy used to collect the dataset.
The Harker School（哈克学校）；The Dalton School（道尔顿学校）；River Hill High School（河山高中）；University of Maryland, Baltimore County（马里兰大学巴尔的摩县分校）
Currently, there is a surge of interest in fair Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) research which aims to mitigate discriminatory bias in AI algorithms, e.g. along lines of gender, age, and race. While most research in this domain focuses on developing fair AI algorithms, in this work, we show that a fair AI algorithm on its own may be insufficient to achieve its intended results in the real world. Using career recommendation as a case study, we build a fair AI career recommender by employing gender debiasing machine learning techniques. Our offline evaluation showed that t…
Massachusetts Institute of Technology（麻省理工学院）；The University of Texas at Austin（德克萨斯大学奥斯汀分校）
We consider Model-Agnostic Meta-Learning (MAML) methods for Reinforcement Learning (RL) problems, where the goal is to find a policy using data from several tasks represented by Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that can be updated by one step of stochastic policy gradient for the realized MDP. In particular, using stochastic gradients in MAML update steps is crucial for RL problems since computation of exact gradients requires access to a large number of possible trajectories. For this formulation, we propose a variant of the MAML method, named Stochastic Gradient Meta-Reinforcement Learning (…
Reinforcement learning (RL) has recently been introduced to interactive recommender systems (IRS) because of its nature of learning from dynamic interactions and planning for long-run performance. As IRS is always with thousands of items to recommend (i.e., thousands of actions), most existing RL-based methods, however, fail to handle such a large discrete action space problem and thus become inefficient. The existing work that tries to deal with the large discrete action space problem by utilizing the deep deterministic policy gradient framework suffers from the inconsistency between the cont…
Reinforcement learning aims at searching the best policy model for decision making, and has been shown powerful for sequential recommendations. The training of the policy by reinforcement learning, however, is placed in an environment. In many real-world applications, however, the policy training in the real environment can cause an unbearable cost, due to the exploration in the environment. Environment reconstruction from the past data is thus an appealing way to release the power of reinforcement learning in these applications. The reconstruction of the environment is, basically, to extract …
Warrington College of Business, University of Florida（佛罗里达大学沃灵顿商学院）；Leonard N. Stern School of Business, New York University（纽约大学伦纳德·N·斯特恩商学院）；School of Management, Xi’an Jiaotong University（西安交通大学管理学院）；Shanghai University of Finance and Economics（上海财经大学）
Data-driven sequential decision has found a wide range of applications in modern operations management, such as dynamic pricing, inventory control, and assortment optimization. Most existing research on data-driven sequential decision focuses on designing an online policy to maximize the revenue. However, the research on uncertainty quantification on the underlying true model function (e.g., demand function), a critical problem for practitioners, has not been well explored. In this paper, using the problem of demand function prediction in dynamic pricing as the motivating example, we study the…
Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）；IBM TJ Watson Research Center（IBM托马斯·J·沃森研究中心）
We introduce a Reinforcement Learning Psychotherapy AI Companion that generates topic recommendations for therapists based on patient responses. The system uses Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) to generate multi-objective policies for four different psychiatric conditions: anxiety, depression, schizophrenia, and suicidal cases. We present our experimental results on the accuracy of recommended topics using three different scales of working alliance ratings: task, bond, and goal. We show that the system is able to capture the real data (historical topics discussed by the therapists) relatively…
Texas A&M University（得克萨斯农工大学）；Samsung Research America（三星美国研究院）；National Chiao Tung University（国立交通大学）；University of Arizona（亚利桑那大学）
With the explosive growth of online products and content, recommendation techniques have been considered as an effective tool to overcome information overload, improve user experience, and boost business revenue. In recent years, we have observed a new desideratum of considering long-term rewards of multiple related recommendation tasks simultaneously. The consideration of long-term rewards is strongly tied to business revenue and growth. Learning multiple tasks simultaneously could generally improve the performance of individual task due to knowledge sharing in multi-task learning. While a fe…
Institute of Computing Technology, CAS（中国科学院计算技术研究所）；IIIS, Tsinghua University（清华大学交叉信息研究院）；University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）
Decision making is a challenging task in online recommender systems. The decision maker often needs to choose a contextual item at each step from a set of candidates. Contextual bandit algorithms have been successfully deployed to such applications, for the trade-off between exploration and exploitation and the state-of-art performance on minimizing online costs. However, the applicability of existing contextual bandit methods is limited by the over-simplified assumptions of the problem, such as assuming a simple form of the reward function or assuming a static environment where the states are…
University of Michigan（密歇根大学）；Adobe Big Data Experience Lab（奥多比大数据体验实验室）
We study the problem of personalized advertisement recommendation (PAR), which consist of a user visiting a system (website) and the system displaying one of $K$ ads to the user. The system uses an internal ad recommendation policy to map the user's profile (context) to one of the ads. The user either clicks or ignores the ad and correspondingly, the system updates its recommendation policy. PAR problem is usually tackled by scalable \emph{contextual bandit} algorithms, where the policies are generally based on classifiers. A practical problem in PAR is extreme click sparsity, due to very few …
Time-Constrained Recommendations: Reinforcement Learning Strategies for E-Commerce
Department of Computer Science（计算机科学系）；Northwestern University（西北大学）；Elmore Family School of Electrical and Computer Engineering（埃洛姆家族电气与计算机工程学院）；Purdue University（普渡大学）
Hong Kong University of Science and Technology（香港科技大学）
The design of recommendations strategies in the adaptive learning system focuses on utilizing currently available information to provide individual-specific learning instructions for learners. As a critical motivate for human behaviors, curiosity is essentially the drive to explore knowledge and seek information. In a psychologically inspired view, we aim to incorporate the element of curiosity for guiding learners to study spontaneously. In this paper, a curiosity-driven recommendation policy is proposed under the reinforcement learning framework, allowing for a both efficient and enjoyable p…
University of Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院大学）；Didi Chuxing（滴滴出行）
Contextual multi-armed bandit (MAB) achieves cutting-edge performance on a variety of problems. When it comes to real-world scenarios such as recommendation system and online advertising, however, it is essential to consider the resource consumption of exploration. In practice, there is typically non-zero cost associated with executing a recommendation (arm) in the environment, and hence, the policy should be learned with a fixed exploration cost constraint. It is challenging to learn a global optimal policy directly, since it is a NP-hard problem and significantly complicates the exploration …
Stanford University（斯坦福大学）；University of California, Los Angeles（加州大学洛杉矶分校）；New York University（纽约大学）
With the rise of the digital economy and an explosion of available information about consumers, effective personalization of goods and services has become a core business focus for companies to improve revenues and maintain a competitive edge. This paper studies the personalization problem through the lens of policy learning, where the goal is to learn a decision-making rule (a policy) that maps from consumer and product characteristics (features) to recommendations (actions) in order to optimize outcomes (rewards). We focus on using available historical data for offline learning with unknown …
There are great interests as well as many challenges in applying reinforcement learning (RL) to recommendation systems. In this setting, an online user is the environment; neither the reward function nor the environment dynamics are clearly defined, making the application of RL challenging. In this paper, we propose a novel model-based reinforcement learning framework for recommendation systems, where we develop a generative adversarial network to imitate user behavior dynamics and learn her reward function. Using this user model as the simulation environment, we develop a novel Cascading DQN …
Motivated by online settings where users can provide explicit feedback about the relevance of products that are sequentially presented to them, we look at the recommendation process as a problem of dynamically optimizing this relevance feedback. Such an algorithm optimizes the fine tradeoff between presenting the products that are most likely to be relevant, and learning the preferences of the user so that more relevant recommendations can be made in the future. We assume a standard predictive model inspired by collaborative filtering, in which a user is sampled from a distribution over a set …
We study session-based recommendation scenarios where we want to recommend items to users during sequential interactions to improve their long-term utility. Optimizing a long-term metric is challenging because the learning signal (whether the recommendations achieved their desired goals) is delayed and confounded by other user interactions with the system. Targeting immediately measurable proxies such as clicks can lead to suboptimal recommendations due to misalignment with the long-term metric. We develop a new reinforcement learning algorithm called Short Horizon Policy Improvement (SHPI) th…
University of Southern California（南加州大学）；Xtelligent, Inc.（Xtelligent公司）
We study route choice in a repeated routing game where an uncertain state of nature determines link latency functions, and agents receive private route recommendation. The state is sampled in an i.i.d. manner in every round from a publicly known distribution, and the recommendations are generated by a randomization policy whose mapping from the state is known publicly. In a one-shot setting, the agents are said to obey recommendation if it gives the smallest travel time in a posteriori expectation. A plausible extension to repeated setting is that the likelihood of following recommendation in …
University of Arizona（亚利桑那大学）；Samsung Research America（三星美国研究院）；University of Science and Technology of China（中国科学技术大学）
Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown great promise in optimizing long-term user interest in recommender systems. However, existing RL-based recommendation methods need a large number of interactions for each user to learn a robust recommendation policy. The challenge becomes more critical when recommending to new users who have a limited number of interactions. To that end, in this paper, we address the cold-start challenge in the RL-based recommender systems by proposing a meta-level model-based reinforcement learning approach for fast user adaptation. In our approach, we learn to infer each…
