Many spatio-temporal data record the time of birth and death of individuals, along with their spatial trajectories during their lifetime, whether through continuous-time observations or discrete-time observations. Natural applications include epidemiology, individual-based modelling in ecology, spatio-temporal dynamics observed in bio-imaging, and computer vision. The aim of this article is to estimate in this context the birth and death intensity functions, that depend in full generality on the current spatial configuration of all alive individuals. While the temporal evolution of the population size is a simple birth-death process, observing the lifetime and trajectories of all individuals calls for a new paradigm. To formalise this framework, we introduce spatial birth-death-move processes, where the birth and death dynamics depends on the current spatial configuration of the population and where individuals can move during their lifetime according to a continuous Markov process with possible interactions.We consider non-parametric kernel estimators of their birth and death intensity functions. The setting is original because each observation in time belongs to a non-vectorial, infinite dimensional space and the dependence between observations is barely tractable. We prove the consistency of the estimators in presence of continuous-time and discrete-time observations, under fairly simple conditions. We moreover discuss how we can take advantage in practice of structural assumptions made on the intensity functions and we explain how data-driven bandwidth selection can be conducted, despite the unknown (and sometimes undefined) second order moments of the estimators. We finally apply our statistical method to the analysis of the spatio-temporal dynamics of proteins involved in exocytosis in cells, providing new insights on this complex mechanism.
Likelihood-based inference for birth-death processes with composite birth mechanisms
Network Science Institute, Northeastern University London（伦敦东北大学网络科学研究所）；Department of Mathematics, University of Sussex（萨塞克斯大学数学系）；Department of Mathematics, Northeastern University（东北大学数学系）
Birth-and-death processes are widely used to model the development of biological populations. Although they are relatively simple models, their parameters can be challenging to estimate, because the likelihood can become numerically unstable when data arise from the most common sampling schemes, such as annual population censuses. Simple estimators may be based on an embedded Galton-Watson process, but this presupposes that the observation times are equi-spaced. We estimate the birth, death, and growth rates of a linear birth-and-death process whose population size is periodically observed via…
We prove that under certain general conditions on the birth and death rates the Lebesgue-Poisson measure is a maximal irreducibility measure for the spatial birth-and-death process.
In this paper we review some results on time-homogeneous birth-death processes. Specifically, for truncated birth-death processes with two absorbing or two reflecting endpoints, we recall the necessary and sufficient conditions on the transition rates such that the transition probabilities satisfy a spatial symmetry relation. The latter leads to simple expressions for first-passage-time densities and avoiding transition probabilities. This approach is thus thoroughly extended to the case of bilateral birth-death processes, even in the presence of catastrophes, and to the case of a two-dimensio…
We consider a multidimensional inhomogeneous birth-death process (BDP) and obtain bounds on the rate of convergence for the corresponding one-dimensional processes.
Asymptotic expansions for stationary and conditional quasi-stationary distributions of nonlinearly perturbed birth-death-type semi-Markov models are presented. Applications to models of population growth, epidemic spread and population genetics are discussed.
This paper considers the cycle maximum in birth-death processes as a stepping stone to characterisation of the cycle maximum in single queues and open Kelly-Whittle networks of queues. For positive recurrent birth-death processes we show that the sequence of sample maxima is stochastically compact. For transient birth-death processes we show that the sequence of sample maxima conditioned on the maximum being finite is stochastically compact. We show that the Markov chain recording the total number of customers in a Kelly-Whittle network is a birth-death process with birth and death rates deter…
The purpose of this note is twofold: firstly to improve the known results on variation of extreme eigenvalues of birth and death matrices and random walk matrices; and secondly to progress towards the solution of a thirty years old open problem concerning the variation of eigenvalues of these matrices. Keywords: Birth and death matrices, random walk matrices, eigenvalues, monotonicity
In this paper we study strong solutions of some non-local difference-differential equations linked to a class of birth-death processes arising as discrete approximations of Pearson diffusions by means of a spectral decomposition in terms of orthogonal polynomials and eigenfunctions of some non-local derivatives. Moreover, we give a stochastic representation of such solutions in terms of time-changed birth-death processes and study their invariant and their limit distribution. Finally, we describe the correlation structure of the aforementioned time-changed birth-death processes.
The spread of an advantageous mutation through a population is of fundamental interest in population genetics. While the classical Moran model is formulated for a well-mixed population, it has long been recognized that in real-world applications, the population usually has an explicit spatial structure which can significantly influence the dynamics. In the context of cancer initiation in epithelial tissue, several recent works have analyzed the dynamics of advantageous mutant spread on integer lattices, using the biased voter model from particle systems theory. In this spatial version of the M…
In this paper I shall give the complete solution of the equations governing the bilateral birth and death process on path set $\mathbb{R}_q=\{q^n,\quad n\in\mathbb{Z}\}$ in which the birth and death rates $λ_n=q^{2ν-2n}$ and $μ_n=q^{-2n}$ where $0<q<1$ and $ν>-1$ . The mathematical methods employed here are based on $q$-Bessel Fourier analysis.
A sufficient condition is obtained for a discrete-time birth-death process to possess the strong ratio limit property, directly in terms of the one-step transition probabilities of the process. The condition encompasses all previously known sufficient conditions.
Spatial birth-and-death processes with a finite number of particles are obtained as unique solutions to certain stochastic equations. Conditions are given for existence and uniqueness of such solutions, as well as for continuous dependence on the initial conditions. The possibility of an explosion and connection with the heuristic generator of the process are discussed.
A symmetric relation in the probabilistic Green's function for birth-death chains is explored. Two proofs are given, each of which makes use of the known symmetry of the Green's functions in other contexts. The first uses as primary tool the local time of Brownian motion, while the second uses the reciprocity principle from electric network theory. We also show that the the second proof extends easily to cover birth-death chains (a.k.a. state-dependent random walks) on trees.
The paper considers a continuous-time birth-death process where the jump rate has an asymptotically polynomial dependence on the process position. We obtain a rough exponential asymptotics for the probability of excursions of a re-scaled process contained within a neighborhood of a given continuous non-negative function.
This paper is an attempt to formalize analytically the question raised in "World Population Explained: Do Dead People Outnumber Living, Or Vice Versa?" Huffington Post, \cite{HJ}. We start developing simple deterministic Malthusian growth models of the problem (with birth and death rates either constant or time-dependent) before running into both linear birth and death Markov chain models and age-structured models.
We consider a continuous time Markov process on $\mathbb{N}_0$ which can be interpreted as generalized alternating birth-death process in a non-autonomous random environment. Depending on the status of the environment the process either increases until the environment changes and the process starts to decrease until the environment changes again, and the process restarts to increase, and so on, or its starts decreasing, reversing its direction due to environmental changes, et cetera. The birth and death rates depend on the state (height, population size) of the birth-death process and the envi…
For birth-and-death processes, we show that every initial distribution is reproduced from the first hitting time distribution. The reproduction is done by applying to the distribution function a differential operator defined through the eigenfunction of the generator. Using the spectral theory for generalized second-order differential operators, we study asymmetric random walks.
Earlier work by Diaconis and Saloff-Coste gives a spectral criterion for a maximum separation cutoff to occur for birth and death chains. Ding, Lubetzky and Peres gave a related criterion for a maximum total variation cutoff to occur in the same setting. Here, we provide complementary results which allow us to compute the cutoff times and windows in a variety of examples.
This paper aims to clarify certain aspects of the relations between birth-death processes, measures solving a Stieltjes moment problem, and sets of parameters defining polynomial sequences that are orthogonal with respect to such a measure. Besides giving an overview of the basic features of these relations, revealed to a large extent by Karlin and McGregor, we investigate a duality concept for birth-death processes introduced by Karlin and McGregor and its interpretation in the context of shell polynomials and the corresponding orthogonal polynomials. This interpretation leads to increased in…
We consider the spectral analysis of several examples of bilateral birth-death processes and compute explicitly the spectral matrix and the corresponding orthogonal polynomials. We also use the spectral representation to study some probabilistic properties of the processes, like recurrence, the invariant distribution (if it exists) or the probability current.
We introduce a family of multivariate continuous-time pure birth and pure death chains, with birth and death rates defined in terms of the generalized binomial coefficients for multiplicity free actions. The state spaces for some of the introduced processes are some sets of partitions (equivalently, Young diagrams). The chains turn out to be the classical Markov processes obtained by restricting Biane's quantum Ornstein-Uhlenbeck semigroups to commutative C*-algebras related to Gelfand pairs built on Heisenberg groups.
We consider a new way of factorizing the transition probability matrix of a discrete-time birth-death chain on the integers by means of an absorbing and a reflecting birth-death chain to the state 0 and viceversa. First we will consider reflecting-absorbing factorizations of birth-death chains on the integers. We give conditions on the two free parameters such that each of the factors is a stochastic matrix. By inverting the order of the factors (also known as a Darboux transformation) we get new families of "almost" birth-death chains on the integers with the only difference that we have new …
Broom and Rychtář [Proc. R. Soc. A (2008) 464, 2609--2627] found an exact solution for the fixation probabilities of the Moran process for a structured population, in which the interaction structure among individuals is given by the so-called star graph, i.e. one central vertex and $n$ leaves, the leaves connecting only to the center. We generalize on their solution by allowing individuals' fitnesses to depend on the population frequency, and also by allowing a possible change in the order of reproduction and death draws. In their cited paper, Broom and Rychtář considered the birth-death (BD) …
In this note we consider a Markov chain formed by a finite system of interacting birth-and-death processes on a finite state space. We study an asymptotic behaviour of the Markov chain as its state space becomes large. In particular, we show that the appropriately scaled Markov chain converges to a diffusion process, and derive conditions for existence of the stationary distribution of the limit diffusion process in special cases.
This article investigates second order intertwinings between semigroups of birth-death processes and discrete gradients on the space of natural integers N. It goes one step beyond a recent work of Chafa{ï} and Joulin which establishes and applies to the analysis of birth-death semigroups a first order intertwining. Similarly to the first order relation, the second order intertwining involves birth-death and Feynman-Kac semigroups and weighted gradients on N, and can be seen as a second derivative relation. As our main application, we provide new quantitative bounds on the Stein factors of disc…
We present normal approximation results at the process level for local functionals defined on dynamic Poisson processes in $\mathbb{R}^d$. The dynamics we study here are those of a Markov birth-death process. We prove functional limit theorems in the so-called thermodynamic regime. Our results are applicable to several functionals of interest in the stochastic geometry literature, including subgraph and component counts in the random geometric graphs.
In a first part, we prove a Lyapunov-type criterion for the $ξ\_1$-positive recurrence of absorbed birth and death processes and provide new results on the domain of attraction of the minimal quasi-stationary distribution. In a second part, we study the ergodicity and the convergence of a Fleming-Viot type particle system whose particles evolve independently as a birth and death process and jump on each others when they hit $0$. Our main result is that the sequence of empirical stationary distributions of the particle system converges to the minimal quasi-stationary distribution of the birth a…
