气象条件对施肥影响的空间动态面板数据分析
The Effect of Weather Conditions on Fertilizer Applications: A Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Analysis
摘要：
鉴于农业对天气条件的极端依赖，本文分析了气候变化对这一经济部门的影响，同时考虑到一个巨大的数据集和灵活的时空模型规范。特别是，我们研究了氮肥施用对异常天气条件的响应，同时考虑其他相关控制变量。数据集由跨越21年（1993-2013年）的网格数据组成，而方法策略则利用空间动态面板数据模型，该模型除了处理空间和时间依赖性之外，还考虑了空间和时间的固定效应。时不变的短期和长期的影响，以及随时间变化的边际效应也适当定义，揭示有趣的结果，国内生产总值和天气条件对肥料利用的影响。分析考虑了四个宏观区域-欧洲、南美洲、东南亚和非洲，以便对不同的社会经济社会进行比较。除了发现空间（知识溢出效应的形式）和时间的依赖性，以及一个很好的支持存在的环境库兹涅茨曲线施肥，该文件显示了特殊的反应N施肥偏离正常的天气条件下的水分为每个选定的地区，要求特设的政策干预。
英文摘要：
Given the extreme dependence of agriculture on weather conditions, this paper analyses the effect of climatic variations on this economic sector, by considering both a huge dataset and a flexible spatio-temporal model specification. In particular, we study the response of N-fertilizer application to abnormal weather conditions, while accounting for other relevant control variables. The dataset consists of gridded data spanning over 21 years (1993-2013), while the methodological strategy makes use of a spatial dynamic panel data (SDPD) model that accounts for both space and time fixed effects, besides dealing with both space and time dependences. Time-invariant short and long term effects, as well as time-varying marginal effects are also properly defined, revealing interesting results on the impact of both GDP and weather conditions on fertilizer utilizations. The analysis considers four macro-regions -- Europe, South America, South-East Asia and Africa -- to allow for comparisons among different socio-economic societies. In addition to finding both spatial (in the form of knowledge spillover effects) and temporal dependences as well as a good support for the existence of an environmental Kuznets curve for fertilizer application, the paper shows peculiar responses of N-fertilization to deviations from normal weather conditions of moisture for each selected region, calling for ad hoc policy interventions.
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