气候变化对经济和金融周期的影响：一个马尔可夫转换面板方法
The impact of Climate on Economic and Financial Cycles: A Markov-switching Panel Approach
摘要：
本文研究了气候冲击对13个欧洲经济体的影响，分析了不同阶段的商业和金融周期，并对不同部门渠道的影响进行了分解。贝叶斯面板马尔可夫转换框架，提出了联合估计极端天气事件对经济的影响，以及商业和金融周期之间的相互作用。实证分析的结果表明，极端天气事件的影响不对称的不同阶段的经济和异质性在欧盟国家。此外，我们强调了制造业产出，工业生产指数的一个组成部分，构成了气候冲击影响欧盟经济的主要渠道。
英文摘要：
This paper examines the impact of climate shocks on 13 European economies analysing jointly business and financial cycles, in different phases and disentangling the effects for different sector channels. A Bayesian Panel Markov-switching framework is proposed to jointly estimate the impact of extreme weather events on the economies as well as the interaction between business and financial cycles. Results from the empirical analysis suggest that extreme weather events impact asymmetrically across the different phases of the economy and heterogeneously across the EU countries. Moreover, we highlight how the manufacturing output, a component of the industrial production index, constitutes the main channel through which climate shocks impact the EU economies.
机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来，可能存在错误，请以论文正文为准。
