Since the end of 2019 an outbreak of a new strain of coronavirus, called 2019--nCoV, is reported from China and later other parts of the world. Since January 21, WHO reports daily data on confirmed cases and deaths from both China and other countries. In this work we present some discrete and continuous models to discribe the disease dynamics in China and estimate the needed epidemiological parameters. Good agreement with the current dynamics has be found for both a discrete transmission model and a slightly modified SIR-model.
A mathematical model is proposed for quantitative description of the outbreak of novel coronavirus COVID-19 in China. Although the model is relatively simple, the comparison with the public data shows that an exact solution solution of the model (with the correctly-specified parameters) leads to the results, which are in good agreement with the measured data. Prediction of the total number of the COVID-19 cases is discussed and an example is presented using the measured data in Austria.
We comparatively analyzed the spatiotemporal fluctuations of the 2019-novel coronavirus (COVID-19) and SARS outbreaks to understand their epidemiological characteristics. Methodologically, we introduced TPL (Taylor power law) to characterize their spatiotemporal heterogeneity/stability and Hubbell (2001) unified neutral theory of biodiversity (UNTB) [specifically Harris et al. (2015) HDP-MSN model (hierarchical Dirichlet process multi-site neutral model)] to approximate the metapopulation of coronavirus infections. First, TPL analysis suggested that the coronaviruses appear to have a specific …
Novel coronavirus-19 (2019-nCoV or COVID-19) is by far the most dangerous coronavirus ever identified for the third time in the three decades capable of infecting not only the animals but also the humans across the globe. Nearly 6000 deaths have been recorded due mainly to COVID-19 outbreak worldwide and more than 50% of these deaths appeared to have evolved from China where the virus was thought to originate. The endemicity of COVID-19 dramatically surpassed severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) that were so far di…
Epidemic is a rapid and wide spread of infectious disease threatening many lives and economy damages. It is important to fore-tell the epidemic lifetime so to decide on timely and remedic actions. These measures include closing borders, schools, suspending community services and commuters. Resuming such curfews depends on the momentum of the outbreak and its rate of decay. Being able to accurately forecast the fate of an epidemic is an extremely important but difficult task. Due to limited knowledge of the novel disease, the high uncertainty involved and the complex societal-political factors …
At the time of this writing, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic outbreak has already put tremendous strain on many countries' citizens, resources and economies around the world. Social distancing measures, travel bans, self-quarantines, and business closures are changing the very fabric of societies worldwide. With people forced out of public spaces, much conversation about these phenomena now occurs online, e.g., on social media platforms like Twitter. In this paper, we describe a multilingual coronavirus (COVID-19) Twitter dataset that we have been continuously collecting since Januar…
The outbreak of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in China has caused a viral epidemic affecting tens of thousands of persons. Though the danger of this epidemic is evident, the statistical analysis of data offered in this paper indicates that the increase in new cases in China will stabilize in the coming days or weeks. Our forecast could serve to evaluate risks and control the evolution of this disease.
In the present article a mathematical model is proposed to research the current coronavirus outbreak (SARS-CoV-2) in Paraguay, describing the multiple transmission paths in the infection dynamics, following the susceptible, exposed, infectious, hospitalized, with lost immunity and recovered individuals, as well as the role of the virus in the environment and deaths from COVID-19 or other reasons. In order to reflect the impact of the control measures adopted by the government and the population, the model employs variable transmission rates that change with the epidemiological status and envir…
How to model the 2019 CoronaVirus (2019-nCov) spread in China is one of the most urgent and interesting problems in applied mathematics. In this paper, we propose a novel time delay dynamic system with external source to describe the trend of local outbreak for the 2019-nCoV. The external source is introduced in the newly proposed dynamic system, which can be considered as the suspected people travel to different areas. The numerical simulations exhibit the dynamic system with the external source is more reliable than the one without it, and the rate of isolation is extremely important for con…
We present Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) statistics in China dataset: daily statistics of the COVID-19 outbreak in China at the city/county level. For each city/country, we include the six most important numbers for epidemic research: daily new infections, accumulated infections, daily new recoveries, accumulated recoveries, daily new deaths, and accumulated deaths. We cross validate the dataset and the estimate error rate is about 0.04%. We then give several examples to show how to trace the spreading in particular cities or provinces, and also contrast the development of COVID-19 in al…
Since the beginning of March 2020, the cumulative numbers of cases of infection with the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Germany have been reported on a daily basis. The reports originate from national laws, according to which positive test findings must be submitted to the Federal Health Authorities, the Robert Koch Institute, via the local health authorities. Since an enormous number of unreported cases can be expected, the question of how widespread the disease has been in the population cannot be answered based on these administrative reports. Using mathematical modeling, however, estimate…
The paper deals with a modeling of the ongoing epidemic caused by Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the closed territory of the Republic of Croatia. Using the official public information on the number of confirmed infected, recovered and deceased individuals, the modified SEIR compartmental model is developed to describe the underlying dynamics of the epidemic. Fitted modified SEIR model provides the prediction of the disease progression in the near future, considering strict control interventions by means of social distancing and quarantine for infected and at-risk individuals introduced…
Recent literature has suggested that climate conditions have considerably significant influences on the transmission of coronavirus COVID-19. However, there is a lack of comprehensive study that investigates the relationships between multiple weather factors and the development of COVID-19 pandemic while excluding the impact of social factors. In this paper, we study the relationships between six main weather factors and the infection statistics of COVID-19 on 250 cities in Mainland China. Our correlation analysis using weather and infection statistics indicates that all the studied weather fa…
Background: The analysis of the Sars-CoV-2 epidemic is of paramount importance to understand the dynamics of the coronavirus spread. This can help health and government authorities take the appropriate measures and implement suitable politics aimed at fighting and preventing it. Methods: A time-dependent dynamic SEIR model inspired in a model previously used during the MERS outbreak in South Korea was used to analyse the time trajectories of active and hospitalized cases in Portugal. Results: The time evolution of the virus spread in the country was adequately modelled. The model has changeabl…
The rapid transmission of the highly contagious novel coronavirus has been represented through several data-guided approaches across targeted geographies, in an attempt to understand when the pandemic will be under control and imposed lockdown measures can be relaxed. However, these epidemiological models predominantly based on training data employing number of cases and fatalities are limited in that they do not account for the spatiotemporal population dynamics that principally contributes to the disease spread. Here, a stochastic cellular automata enabled predictive model is presented that …
There were 27 novel coronavirus pneumonia cases found in Wuhan, China in December 2019, named as 2019-nCoV temporarily and COVID-19 formally by WHO on 11 February, 2020. In December 2019 and January 2020, COVID-19 has spread in large scale among the population, which brought terrible disaster to the life and property of the Chinese people. In this paper, we will first analyze the feature and pattern of the virus transmission, and discuss the key impact factors and uncontrollable factors of epidemic transmission based on public data. Then the virus transmission can be modelled and used for the …
The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has changed the world since the World Health Organization declared its outbreak on 30th January 2020, recognizing the outbreak as a pandemic on 11th March 2020. As often said by politicians and scientific advisors, the objective is "to flatten the curve", or "push the peak down", or similar wording, of the virus spreading. Central to the official advice are mathematical models and data, which provide estimates on the evolution of the number of infected, recovered and deaths. The accuracy of the models is improved day by day by inferring the contact, reco…
The outbreak of novel coronavirus-caused pneumonia (COVID-19) in Wuhan has attracted worldwide attention. Here, we propose a generalized SEIR model to analyze this epidemic. Based on the public data of National Health Commission of China from Jan. 20th to Feb. 9th, 2020, we reliably estimate key epidemic parameters and make predictions on the inflection point and possible ending time for 5 different regions. According to optimistic estimation, the epidemics in Beijing and Shanghai will end soon within two weeks, while for most part of China, including the majority of cities in Hubei province, …
In the night of February 20, 2020, the first case of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was confirmed in the Lombardy Region, Italy. In the week that followed, Lombardy experienced a very rapid increase in the number of cases. We analyzed the first 5,830 laboratory-confirmed cases to provide the first epidemiological characterization of a COVID-19 outbreak in a Western Country. Epidemiological data were collected through standardized interviews of confirmed cases and their close contacts. We collected demographic backgrounds, dates of symptom onset, clinical features, respiratory tract speci…
To control the current outbreak of the Coronavirus Disease 2019, constant monitoring of the epidemic is required since, as of today, no vaccines or antiviral drugs against it are known. We provide daily updated estimates of the reproduction number over time at https://stochastik-tu-ilmenau.github.io/COVID-19/. In this document, we describe the estimator we are using which was developed in (Fraser 2007), derive its asymptotic properties, and we give details on its implementation. Furthermore, we validate the estimator on simulated data, demonstrate that estimates on real data lead to plausible …
School of Data and Computer Science, Sun Yat-sen University（中山大学数据与计算机科学学院）；Research Institute of Sun Yat-sen University in Shenzhen（中山大学深圳研究院）
Since the SARS outbreak in 2003, a lot of predictive epidemiological models have been proposed. At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus, termed as 2019-nCoV, has broken out and is propagating in China and the world. Here we propose a multi-model ordinary differential equation set neural network (MMODEs-NN) and model-free methods to predict the interprovincial transmissions in mainland China, especially those from Hubei Province. Compared with the previously proposed epidemiological models, the proposed network can simulate the transportations with the ODEs activation method, while the model-fr…
