The Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) of the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART) is implemented to assimilate observations of satellite sea surface temperature, altimeter sea surface height and in situ ocean temperature and salinity profiles into an eddy-resolving 4 km Massachusetts Institute of Technology general circulation model (MITgcm) of the Red Sea. We investigate the impact of three different ensemble generation strategies (1) Iexp, uses ensemble of ocean states to initialize the model on 1st January, 2011 and inflates filter error covariance by 10 percent, (2) IAexp, adds ensemble of atmospheric forcing to Iexp, and (3) IAPexp, adds perturbed model physics to IAexp. The assimilation experiments are run for one year, starting from the same initial ensemble and assimilating data every three days. Results demonstrate that the Iexp mainly improved the model outputs with respect to assimilation free MITgcm run in the first few months, before showing signs of dynamical imbalances in the ocean estimates, particularly in the data-sparse subsurface layers. The IAexp yielded substantial improvements throughout the assimilation period with almost no signs of imbalances, including the subsurface layers. It further well preserved the model mesoscale features resulting in an improved forecasts for eddies, both in terms of intensity and location. Perturbing model physics in IAPexp slightly improved the forecast statistics and also the placement of basin scale eddies. Increasing hydrographic coverage further improved the results of IAPexp compared to IAexp in the subsurface layers. Switching off multiplicative inflation in IAexp and IAPexp leads to further improvements, especially in the subsurface layers.
Brazilian National Institute of Space Research（巴西国家空间研究院）
This paper presents an approach for employing artificial neural networks (NN) to emulate an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) as a method of data assimilation. The assimilation methods are tested in the Simplified Parameterizations PrimitivE-Equation Dynamics (SPEEDY) model, an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM), using synthetic observational data simulating localization of balloon soundings. For the data assimilation scheme, the supervised NN, the multilayer perceptrons (MLP-NN), is applied. The MLP-NN are able to emulate the analysis from the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LET…
This data assimilation study exploits infrasound from explosions to probe an atmospheric wind component from the ground up to stratospheric altitudes. Planned explosions of old ammunition in Finland generate transient infrasound waves that travel through the atmosphere. These waves are partially reflected back towards the ground from stratospheric levels, and are detected at a receiver station located in northern Norway at 178 km almost due North from the explosion site. The difference between the true horizontal direction towards the source and the backazimuth direction (the horizontal direct…
In this paper, we introduce a new, local formulation of the ensemble Kalman Filter approach for atmospheric data assimilation. Our scheme is based on the hypothesis that, when the Earth's surface is divided up into local regions of moderate size, vectors of the forecast uncertainties in such regions tend to lie in a subspace of much lower dimension than that of the full atmospheric state vector of such a region. Ensemble Kalman Filters, in general, assume that the analysis resulting from the data assimilation lies in the same subspace as the expected forecast error. Under our hypothesis the di…
This paper provides a detailed theoretical analysis of methods to approximate the solutions of high-dimensional (>10^6) linear Bayesian problems. An optimal low-rank projection that maximizes the information content of the Bayesian inversion is proposed and efficiently constructed using a scalable randomized SVD algorithm. Useful optimality results are established for the associated posterior error covariance matrix and posterior mean approximations, which are further investigated in a numerical experiment consisting of a large-scale atmospheric tracer transport source-inversion problem. This …
Align-DA: Align Score-based Atmospheric Data Assimilation with Multiple Preferences
Fudan University（复旦大学）；Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory（上海人工智能实验室）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong（香港中文大学）；Shanghai Jiaotong University（上海交通大学）；Columbia University（哥伦比亚大学）
This chapter describes a novel approach for the treatment of model error in geophysical data assimilation. In this method, model error is treated as a deterministic process fully correlated in time. This allows for the derivation of the evolution equations for the relevant moments of the model error statistics required in data assimilation procedures, along with an approximation suitable for application to large numerical models typical of environmental science. In this contribution we first derive the equations for the model error dynamics in the general case, and then for the particular situ…
Accurate and Efficient Hybrid-Ensemble Atmospheric Data Assimilation in Latent Space with Uncertainty Quantification
Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Climate School, Columbia University（地球与环境工程系，工程与应用科学学院，气候学院，哥伦比亚大学）；Learning the Earth with Artificial Intelligence and Physics (LEAP) Center, Columbia University（人工智能与物理学习地球中心，哥伦比亚大学）；Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, Shanghai, China（上海人工智能实验室，上海，中国）；The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China（香港中文大学，香港，中国）；Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China（计算机科学与技术系，清华大学，北京，中国）
Observations from the Odin/Sub-Millimetre Radiometer (SMR) instrument have been assimilated into the DIAMOND model (Dynamic Isentropic Assimilation Model for OdiN Data), in order to estimate the chemical ozone (O$_{3}$) loss in the stratosphere. This data assimilation technique is described in Sagi and Murtagh (2016), in which it was used to study the inter-annual variability in ozone depletion during the entire Odin operational time and in both hemispheres. Our study focuses on the Arctic region, where two O$_{3}$ destruction mechanisms play an important role, involving halogen and nitrogen c…
The proper determination of soil moisture on different scales is important for applications in a variety of fields. We aim to develop a high-level soil moisture product with high temporal and spatial resolution by assimilating the multilayer soil moisture product SCATSAR-SWI (Scatterometer Synthetic Aperture Radar Soil Water Index) into the surface model SURFEX. In addition, we probe the impact of the findings on the Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) in Austria. The data assimilation system consists of the NWP model AROME and the SURFEX Offline Data Assimilation, which provide atmospheric for…
Continuous data assimilation (CDA) is successfully implemented for the first time for efficient dynamical downscaling of a global atmospheric reanalysis. A comparison of the performance of CDA with the standard grid and spectral nudging techniques for representing long- and short-scale features in the downscaled fields using the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is further presented and analyzed. The WRF model is configured at 25km horizontal resolution and is driven by 250km initial and boundary conditions from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis fields. Downscaling experiments are performed over a …
Fuel moisture has a major influence on the behavior of wildland fires and is an important underlying factor in fire risk assessment. We propose a method to assimilate dead fuel moisture content observations from remote automated weather stations (RAWS) into a time-lag fuel moisture model. RAWS are spatially sparse and a mechanism is needed to estimate fuel moisture content at locations potentially distant from observational stations. This is arranged using a trend surface model (TSM), which allows us to account for the effects of topography and atmospheric state on the spatial variability of f…
Fuel moisture is a major influence on the behavior of wildland fires and an important underlying factor in fire risk. We present a method to assimilate spatially sparse fuel moisture observations from remote automatic weather stations (RAWS) into the moisture model in WRF-SFIRE. WRF-SFIRE is a coupled atmospheric and fire behavior model which simulates the evolution of fuel moisture in idealized fuel species based on atmospheric state. The proposed method uses a modified trend surface model to estimate the fuel moisture field and its uncertainty based on currently available observations. At ea…
Analyzing the validity and success of a data assimilation algorithm when some state variable observations are not available is an important problem in meteorology and engineering. We present an improved data assimilation algorithm for recovering the exact full reference solution (i.e. the velocity and temperature) of the 3D Planetary Geostrophic model, at an exponential rate in time, by employing coarse spatial mesh observations of the temperature alone. This provides, in the case of this paradigm, a rigorous justification to an earlier conjecture of Charney which states that temperature histo…
An adjoint based technique is applied to a Shallow Water Model in order to estimate influence of the model's parameters on the solution. Among parameters the bottom topography, initial conditions, boundary conditions on rigid boundaries, viscosity coefficients and the amplitude of the wind stress tension are considered. Their influence is analyzed from different points of view. Two configurations have been analyzed: an academic case of the model in a square box and a more realistic case simulating Black Sea currents. It is shown in both experiments that the boundary conditions near a rigid bou…
A newly introduced stochastic data assimilation method, the Ensemble Kalman Filter Semi-Qualitative (EnKF-SQ) is applied to a realistic coupled ice-ocean model of the Arctic, the TOPAZ4 configuration, in a twin experiment framework. The method is shown to add value to range-limited thin ice thickness measurements, as obtained from passive microwave remote sensing, with respect to more trivial solutions like neglecting the out-of-range values or assimilating climatology instead. Some known properties inherent to the EnKF-SQ are evaluated: the tendency to draw the solution closer to the thicknes…
Generative assimilation and prediction for weather and climate
Chinese Academy of Sciences（中国科学院）；Nanjing University（南京大学）；Technical University of Munich（慕尼黑工业大学）；Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research（波茨坦气候影响研究所）；Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences（中国气象科学研究院）；National University of Defense Technology（国防科技大学）；Peking University（北京大学）；National Climate Center（国家气候中心）；Xiong’an Institute of Meteorological Artificial Intelligence（雄安气象人工智能研究院）
A comparison is carried out between two operational wave forecasting/assimilation models for the North Sea, with the emphasis on the assimilation schemes. One model is the WAM model, in combination with an optimal interpolation method (OIP). The other model, DASWAM, consists of the third generation wave model PHIDIAS in combination with an approximate implementation of the adjoint method. In an experiment over the period February 19 - March 30, 1993, the models are driven by the same wind field (HIRLAM analysis winds), and the same observation data set is assimilated. This set consists of a) s…
Lagrangian data assimilation of complex nonlinear turbulent flows is an important but computationally challenging topic. In this article, an efficient data-driven statistically accurate reduced-order modeling algorithm is developed that significantly accelerates the computational efficiency of Lagrangian data assimilation. The algorithm starts with a Fourier transform of the high-dimensional flow field, which is followed by an effective model reduction that retains only a small subset of the Fourier coefficients corresponding to the energetic modes. Then a linear stochastic model is developed …
Data assimilation is an increasingly popular technique in Mars atmospheric science, but its effect on the mean states of the underlying atmosphere models has not been thoroughly examined. The robustness of results to the choice of model and assimilation algorithm also warrants further study. We investigate these issues using two Mars general circulation models (MGCMs), with particular emphasis on zonal wind and temperature fields. When temperature retrievals from the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) are assimilated into the U.K.-Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UK…
Data assimilation is an iterative approach to the problem of estimating the state of a dynamical system using both current and past observations of the system together with a model for the system's time evolution. Rather than solving the problem from scratch each time new observations become available, one uses the model to ``forecast'' the current state, using a prior state estimate (which incorporates information from past data) as the initial condition, then uses current data to correct the prior forecast to a current state estimate. This Bayesian approach is most effective when the uncerta…
The understanding of nonlinear, high dimensional flows, e.g, atmospheric and ocean flows, is critical to address the impacts of global climate change. Data Assimilation techniques combine physical models and observational data, often in a Bayesian framework, to predict the future state of the model and the uncertainty in this prediction. Inherent in these systems are noise (Gaussian and non-Gaussian), nonlinearity, and high dimensionality that pose challenges to making accurate predictions. To address these issues we investigate the use of both model and data dimension reduction based on techn…
Improved estimation of hydrometeorological states from down-sampled observations and background model forecasts in a noisy environment, has been a subject of growing research in the past decades. Here, we introduce a unified framework that ties together the problems of downscaling, data fusion and data assimilation as ill-posed inverse problems. This framework seeks solutions beyond the classic least squares estimation paradigms by imposing proper regularization, which are constraints consistent with the degree of smoothness and probabilistic structure of the underlying state. We review releva…
Errors in the representation of clouds in convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models can be introduced by different sources. These can be the forcing and boundary conditions, the representation of orography, the accuracy of the numerical schemes determining the evolution of humidity and temperature, but large contributions are due to the parametrization of microphysics and the parametrization of processes in the surface and boundary layers. These schemes typically contain several tunable parameters that are either not physical or only crudely known, leading to model errors. Trad…
A new nudging method for data assimilation, delay-coordinate nudging, is presented. Delay-coordinate nudging makes explicit use of present and past observations in the formulation of the forcing driving the model evolution at each time-step. Numerical experiments with a low order chaotic system show that the new method systematically outperforms standard nudging in different model and observational scenarios, also when using an un-optimized formulation of the delay-nudging coefficients. A connection between the optimal delay and the dominant Lyapunov exponent of the dynamics is found based on …
A variational data assimilation technique was used to estimate optimal discretization of interpolation operators and derivatives in the nodes adjacent to the rigid boundary. Assimilation of artificially generated observational data in the shallow-water model in a square box and assimilation of real observations in the model of the Black sea are discussed. It is shown in both experiments that controlling the discretization of operators near a rigid boundary can bring the model solution closer to observations as in the assimilation window and beyond the window. This type of control allows also t…
Currently available satellite active fire detection products from the VIIRS and MODIS instruments on polar-orbiting satellites produce detection squares in arbitrary locations. There is no global fire/no fire map, no detection under cloud cover, false negatives are common, and the detection squares are much coarser than the resolution of a fire behavior model. Consequently, current active fire satellite detection products should be used to improve fire modeling in a statistical sense only, rather than as a direct input. We describe a new data assimilation method for active fire detection, base…
A formulation is developed to assimilate ocean-wave data into the Numerical Flow Analysis (NFA) code. NFA is a Cartesian-based implicit Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) code with Volume of Fluid (VOF) interface capturing. The sequential assimilation of data into NFA permits detailed analysis of ocean-wave physics with higher bandwidths than is possible using either other formulations, such as High-Order Spectral (HOS) methods, or field measurements. A framework is provided for assimilating the wavy and vortical portions of the flow. Nudging is used to assimilate wave data at low wavenumbers, and th…
