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arXiv 2407.04488physics.ao-ph
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海洋数据同化集合对 ECMWF 下一代海洋再分析系统的影响

Impact of an Ensemble of Ocean Data Assimilations in ECMWF's next generation ocean reanalysis system

Marcin Chrust, Anthony T. Weaver, Philip Browne, Hao Zuo, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda

AI总结:

本文提出利用海洋短期预报集合以混合方式改进背景误差协方差矩阵,显著降低背景误差,并将用于 ECMWF 下一代海洋再分析系统 ORAS6。

摘要:

数据同化集合(EDA)能够为分析和短期预报不确定性提供有价值的信息。目前 ECMWF 的业务化海洋分析和再分析系统 ORAS5 虽然生成集合,但并未利用该集合来指定背景误差协方差矩阵 $\mathbf{B}$,而 $\mathbf{B}$ 是数据同化系统的关键组成部分。本文描述了面向海洋的 EDA 开发工作,这些工作利用短期预报集合,以两种不同的方式指定 $\mathbf{B}$ 的协方差模型表示参数。首先,我们在较长时间段内生成气候态集合,以产生随季节变化的背景误差方差和水平相关长度尺度的气候态估计。其次,在每个同化周期中,我们从集合中诊断流依赖方差,并将其与气候态估计混合,形成混合方差。我们还利用集合来诊断流依赖的垂直相关长度尺度。我们证明,在 Argo 观测丰富的时期,与 ORAS5 中使用的参数化 $\mathbf{B}$ 公式相比,这种新的混合 $\mathbf{B}$ 公式能够显著减少背景误差。新的海洋 EDA 系统将用于 ECMWF 的下一代海洋再分析系统 ORAS6。

英文摘要:

An Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) can provide valuable information on the analysis and short-range forecast uncertainties. The present ECMWF operational ocean analysis and reanalysis system, called ORAS5, produces an ensemble but does not exploit it for the specification of the background-error covariance matrix $\mathbf{B}$, a key component of the data assimilation system. In this article, we describe EDA developments for the ocean, which take advantage of the short-range forecast ensemble for specifying, in two distinct ways, parameters of a covariance model representation of $\mathbf{B}$. First, we generate a climatological ensemble over an extended period to produce seasonally varying climatological estimates of background-error variances and horizontal correlation length-scales. Second, on each assimilation cycle, we diagnose flow-dependent variances from the ensemble and blend them with the climatological estimates to form hybrid variances. We also use the ensemble to diagnose flow-dependent vertical correlation length-scales. We demonstrate for the Argo-rich period that this new, hybrid formulation of $\mathbf{B}$ results in a significant reduction of background errors compared to the parameterized formulation of $\mathbf{B}$ used in ORAS5. The new ocean EDA system will be employed in ORAS6, ECMWF's next generation ocean reanalysis system.

机构、总结、中文摘要均由AI分析而来,可能存在错误,请以论文正文为准。

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