An Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) can provide valuable information on the analysis and short-range forecast uncertainties. The present ECMWF operational ocean analysis and reanalysis system, called ORAS5, produces an ensemble but does not exploit it for the specification of the background-error covariance matrix $\mathbf{B}$, a key component of the data assimilation system. In this article, we describe EDA developments for the ocean, which take advantage of the short-range forecast ensemble for specifying, in two distinct ways, parameters of a covariance model representation of $\mathbf{B}$. First, we generate a climatological ensemble over an extended period to produce seasonally varying climatological estimates of background-error variances and horizontal correlation length-scales. Second, on each assimilation cycle, we diagnose flow-dependent variances from the ensemble and blend them with the climatological estimates to form hybrid variances. We also use the ensemble to diagnose flow-dependent vertical correlation length-scales. We demonstrate for the Argo-rich period that this new, hybrid formulation of $\mathbf{B}$ results in a significant reduction of background errors compared to the parameterized formulation of $\mathbf{B}$ used in ORAS5. The new ocean EDA system will be employed in ORAS6, ECMWF's next generation ocean reanalysis system.
Improving Typhoon Predictions by Integrating Data-Driven Machine Learning Models with Physics Models Based on the Spectral Nudging and Data Assimilation
Long-window 4DVar for reanalysis using a differentiable weather model
University of Washington(华盛顿大学);UCAR Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science (CPAESS)(UCAR地球系统科学促进合作计划);NOAA/NWS Office of Modeling and Development(美国国家海洋和大气管理局/国家气象局建模与发展办公室);Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder(科罗拉多大学博尔德分校环境科学研究合作研究所);NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory(美国国家海洋和大气管理局物理科学实验室)
Climate-informed cryospheric reanalysis via hierarchical Bayesian data assimilation
Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo(奥斯陆大学地质科学系);Instituto Pirenaico de Ecología, Spanish Research Council (IPE-CSIC)(西班牙研究委员会皮耶林生态研究所);WSL Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF(瑞士联邦雪崩与雪研究所);Mountain Futures GmbH(山未来有限公司);Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)(波茨坦气候影响研究所);Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences(波兰科学院地球物理研究所)
Huracan: A skillful end-to-end data-driven system for ensemble data assimilation and weather prediction
Microsoft Corporation(微软公司);Department of Earth System Science, Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Institute for Global Change Studies(教育部地球系统科学部门地球系统建模重点实验室,全球变化研究机构);Tsinghua University(清华大学)
DAWP: A framework for global observation forecasting via Data Assimilation and Weather Prediction in satellite observation space
Shanghai Jiao Tong University(上海交通大学);Fudan University(复旦大学);The Chinese University of Hong Kong Shanghai AI Laboratory(香港中文大学上海人工智能实验室);Shanghai AI Laboratory(上海人工智能实验室)
Self-Attentive Ensemble Transformer: Representing Ensemble Interactions in Neural Networks for Earth System Models
Meteorological Institute, University of Hamburg(汉堡大学气象研究所);International Max Planck Research School on Earth System Modelling, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology(马克斯·普朗克气象研究所国际马克斯·普朗克地球系统建模研究学院)
Learning more physically realistic dynamics in machine-learning based weather forecasting with latent-space constraints
Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University(哥伦比亚大学地球与环境工程系);Learning the Earth with Artificial Intelligence and Physics (LEAP) Center, Columbia University(人工智能与物理联合地球学习中心(LEAP), 哥伦比亚大学);Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Laboratory(上海人工智能实验室);The Chinese University of Hong Kong(香港中文大学);Department of Computer Science and Technology, Tsinghua University(清华大学计算机科学与技术系)