The concept of hierarchy in complex systems is tightly linked to co-evolutionary processes. We propose here to explore it in the case of the co-evolution between transportation networks and territories. More precisely, we extend a co-evolution model for systems of cities and infrastructure networks, and systematically study its behavior following specific hierarchy indicators we introduce. We show that population hierarchy and network hierarchy are tightly linked, but that a broad range of regimes can exist. Model exploration furthermore yields non-trivial stylized facts which can be taken into account for territorial planning on such long time scales with co-evolutionary processes.
Recreational gatherings are sources of the spread of infectious diseases. Understanding the dynamics of recreational gatherings is essential to building effective public health policies but challenging as the interaction between people and recreational places is complex. Recreational activities are concentrated in a set of urban areas and establish a recreational hierarchy. In this hierarchy, higher-level regions attract more people than lower-level regions for recreational purposes. Here, using customers' motel booking records which are highly associated with recreational activities in Korea,…
Successful innovations achieve large geographical coverage by spreading across settlements and distances. For decades, spatial diffusion has been argued to take place along the urban hierarchy such that the innovation first spreads from large to medium cities then later from medium to small cities. Yet, the role of geographical distance, the other major factor of spatial diffusion, was difficult to identify in hierarchical diffusion due to missing data on spreading events. In this paper, we exploit spatial patterns of individual invitations on a social media platform sent from registered users…
A new angle of view is proposed to find the simple rules dominating complex systems and regular patterns behind random phenomena such as cities. Hierarchy of cities reflects the ubiquitous structure frequently observed in the natural world and social institutions. Where there is a hierarchy with cascade structure, there is a rank-size distribution following Zipf's law, and vice versa. The hierarchical structure can be described with a set of exponential functions that are identical in form to Horton-Strahler's laws on rivers and Gutenberg-Richter's laws on earthquake energy. From the exponenti…
We study a stochastic model of urban growth generating spatial distributions of population densities at an intermediate mesoscopic scale. The model is based on the antagonist interplay between the two opposite abstract processes of aggregation (preferential attachment) and diffusion (urban sprawl). Introducing indicators to quantify precisely urban form, the model is first statistically validated and intensively explored to understand its complex behavior across the parameter space. We then compute real morphological measures on local areas of size 50km covering all European Union, and show th…
In several recent publications, Bettencourt, West and collaborators claim that properties of cities such as gross economic production, personal income, numbers of patents filed, number of crimes committed, etc., show super-linear power-scaling with total population, while measures of resource use show sub-linear power-law scaling. Re-analysis of the gross economic production and personal income for cities in the United States, however, shows that the data cannot distinguish between power laws and other functional forms, including logarithmic growth, and that size predicts relatively little of …
The spatial distribution of population and activities within urban areas, or urban form at the mesoscopic scale, is the outcome of multiple antagonist processes. We propose in this paper to benchmark different models of urban morphogenesis, to systematically compare the urban forms they can produce. Different types of approaches are included, such as a reaction-diffusion model, a gravity-based model, and correlated percolation. Applying a diversity search algorithm, we estimate the feasible space of each model within a space of urban form indicators, in comparison of empirical values for world…
The dynamics of urban systems can be understood from an evolutionary perspective, in some sense extending biological and cultural evolution. Models for systems of cities implementing elementary evolutionary processes remain however to be investigated. We propose here such a model for urban dynamics at the macroscopic scale, in which the diffusion of innovations between cities captures transformation processes (mutations) and transmission processes (diffusion), using two coupled spatial interaction models. Explorations of the model on synthetic systems of cities show the role of spatial interac…
Urban road networks are typical complex systems, which are crucial to our society and economy. In this study, topological characteristics of a number of urban road networks based on purely physical roads rather than routes of vehicles or buses are investigated in order to discover underlying unique structural features, particularly compared to other types of transport networks. Based on these topological indices, correlations between topological indices and small-worldness of urban road networks are also explored. The finding shows that there is no significant small-worldness for urban road ne…
An analogy between the fractal nature of networks of arteries and that of systems of rivers has been drawn in the previous works. However, the deep structure of the hierarchy of blood vessels has not yet been revealed. This paper is devoted to researching the fractals, allometric scaling, and hierarchy of blood vessels. By analogy with Horton-Strahler's laws of river composition, three exponential laws have been put forward. These exponential laws can be reconstructed and transformed into three linear scaling laws, which can be named composition laws of blood vessels network. From these linear…
Easy and intuitive navigability is of central importance in cities. The actual scale-free networking of urban street networks in their topological space, where navigation information is encoded by mapping roads to nodes and junctions to links between nodes, has still no simple explanation. Emphasizing the road-junction hierarchy in a holistic and systematic way leads us to envisage urban street networks as evolving social systems subject to a Boltzmann-mesoscopic entropy conservation. This conservation, which we may interpret in terms of surprisal, ensures the passage from the road-junction hi…
Intercity mobility reveals the hyperbolic geometry of city systems
Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School（北京大学深圳研究生院）；Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Human-Earth Relations of Ministry of Natural Resources of China, Peking University Shenzhen Graduate School（自然资源部地表系统与人类-地球关系重点实验室，北京大学深圳研究生院）；The University of Hong Kong（香港大学）
The emergence of interconnected urban networks is a crucial feature of globalisation processes. Understanding the drivers behind the growth of such networks - in particular urban firm networks -, is essential for the economic resilience of urban systems. We introduce in this paper a generative network model for firm networks at the urban area level including several complementary processes: the economic size of urban areas at origin and destination, industrial sector proximity between firms, the strength of links from the past, as well as the geographical and socio-cultural distance. An empiri…
We propose hypotheses describing the empirical finding of an association between the exponents of urban GDP scaling and Zipf's law for cities. These hypotheses represent various combinations of directional or reciprocal causal links between the two phenomena and include inter- and intra-city processes. Future theories and models can be motivated with and categorized according to these hypotheses. This paper intends to stimulate the discussion around the processes behind these phenomena and pave the way to a Unified Urban Theory.
The dynamics and processes of urban morphogenesis are a central issue regarding a long-term sustainability of urban systems. They however imply stakeholders and parameters at multiple temporal and spatial scales simultaneously, leading to intricate interactions between dimensions and scales. We introduce in this paper from a theoretical viewpoint a simple agent-based model of urban morphogenesis at the scale of an urban area, with the feature of integrating the microscopic and the mesoscopic scales. At the local level, developer agents drive urban development conditioned by local properties bu…
Urban evolution processes occur at different scales, with intricate interactions between levels and relatively distinct type of processes. To what extent actual urban dynamics include an actual strong coupling between scales, in the sense of both top-down and bottom-up feedbacks, remains an open issue with important practical implications for the sustainable management of territories. We introduce in this paper a multi-scalar simulation model of urban growth, coupling a system of cities interaction model at the macroscopic scale with morphogenesis models for the evolution of urban form at the …
Urbanisation is a fundamental phenomenon whose quantitative characterisation is still inadequate. We report here the empirical analysis of a unique data set regarding almost 200 years of evolution of the road network in a large area located north of Milan (Italy). We find that urbanisation is characterised by the homogenisation of cell shapes, and by the stability throughout time of high-centrality roads which constitute the backbone of the urban structure, confirming the importance of historical paths. We show quantitatively that the growth of the network is governed by two elementary process…
We address the role of multiplicative stochastic processes in modeling the occurrence of power-law city size distributions. As an explanation of the result of Zipf's rank analysis, Simon's model is presented in a mathematically elementary way, with a thorough discussion of the involved hypotheses. Emphasis is put on the flexibility of the model, as to its possible extensions and the relaxation of some strong assumptions. We point out some open problems regarding the prediction of the detailed shape of Zipf's rank plots, which may be tackled by means of such extensions.
The concept of allometric growth is based on scaling relations, and it has been applied to urban and regional analysis for a long time. However, most allometric analyses were devoted to the single proportional relation between two elements of a geographical system. Few researches focus on the allometric scaling of multielements. In this paper, a process of multiscaling allometric analysis is developed for the studies on spatio-temporal evolution of complex systems. By means of linear algebra, general system theory, and by analogy with the analytical hierarchy process, the concepts of allometri…
Bus transportation is considered as one of the most convenient and cheapest modes of public transportation in Indian cities. Due to their cost-effectiveness and wide reachability, they help a significant portion of the human population in cities to reach their destinations every day. Although from a transportation point of view they have numerous advantages over other modes of public transportation, they also pose a serious threat of contagious diseases spreading throughout the city. The presence of numerous local spatial constraints makes the process and extent of epidemic spreading extremely…
Urban systems are composed by complex couplings of several components, and more particularly between the built environment and transportation networks. Their interaction is involved in the emergence of the urban form. We propose in this chapter to introduce an approach to urban morphology grasping both aspects and their interaction. We first define complementary measures, study their empirical values and their spatial correlations on European territorial systems. The behavior of indicators and correlations suggest underlying non-stationary and multi-scalar processes. We then introduce a genera…
Recently developed techniques to acquire high-quality human mobility data allow large-scale simulations of the spread of infectious diseases with high spatial and temporal resolution.Analysis of such data has revealed the oversimplification of existing theoretical frameworks to infer the final epidemic size or influential nodes from the network topology. Here we propose a spectral decomposition-based framework for the quantitative analysis of epidemic processes on realistic networks of human proximity derived from urban mobility data. Common wisdom suggests that modes with larger eigenvalues c…
Spatio-temporal interaction is inherent to cases of infectious diseases and occurrences of earthquakes, whereas the spread of other events, such as cancer or crime, is less evident. Statistical significance tests of space-time clustering usually assess the correlation between the spatial and temporal (transformed) distances of the events. Although appealing through simplicity, these classical tests do not adjust for the underlying population nor can they account for a distance decay of interaction. We propose to use the framework of an endemic-epidemic point process model to jointly estimate a…
The amount of data that is being gathered about cities is increasing in size and specificity. However, despite this wealth of information, we still have little understanding of what really drives the processes behind urbanisation. In this thesis we apply some ideas from statistical physics to the study of cities. We first present a stochastic, out-of-equilibrium model of city growth that describes the structure of the mobility pattern of individuals. The model explains the appearance of secondary subcenters as an effect of traffic congestion, and predicts a sublinear increase of the number of …
In this paper, we present a modelling experiment developed to study systems of cities and processes of urbanisation in large territories over long time spans. Building on geographical theories of urban evolution, we rely on agent-based models to 1/ formalise complementary and alternative hypotheses of urbanisation and 2/ explore their ability to simulate observed patterns in a virtual laboratory. The paper is therefore divided into two sections : an overview of the mechanisms implemented to represent competing hypotheses used to simulate urban evolution; and an evaluation of the resulting mode…
For the first time the systems of cities in seven countries or regions among the largest in the world (China, India, Brazil, Europe, the Former Soviet Union (FSU), the United States and South Africa) are made comparable through the building of spatio-temporal standardised statistical databases. We first explain the concept of a generic evolutionary urban unit ("city") and its necessary adaptations to the information provided by each national statistical system. Second, the hierarchical structure and the urban growth process are compared at macro-scale for the seven countries with reference to …
In this paper, we develop a novel approach to measuring urban sprawl based on street nodes and naturally defined urban boundaries, both extracted from massive volunteered geographic information OpenStreetMap databases through some data-intensive computing processes. The street nodes are defined as street intersections and ends, while the naturally defined urban boundaries constitute what we call natural cities. We find that the street nodes are significantly correlated with population of cities. Based on this finding, we set street nodes as a proxy of population to measure urban sprawl. We fur…
Understanding urban growth is one with understanding how society evolves to satisfy the needs of its individuals in sharing a common space and adapting to the territory. We propose here a quantitative analysis of the historical development of a large urban area by investigating the spatial distribution and the age of commercial activities in the whole city of Rome. We find that the age of activities of various categories presents a very interesting double exponential trend, with a transition possibly related to the long-term economical effects determined by the oil crisis of the Seventies. The…
We propose a simple "evolutionary" sandpile model exhibiting self-organised criticality and exactly $1/f$-noise (i.e. the critical exponent is equal to $-1$) and observe emergent phenomena of the same type self-organised criticality on the "next level" sandpile. In this way we try to model climbing by the so-called hierarchy of sciences, where processes on a higher level can, in principle, be derived by laws of a lower level but this derivation is computationally unfeasible and useless from the explanatory point of view.
